What climate change is costing California

What climate change is costing California Robert Egan Senior Editor From heat-related illness and deaths to lost work hours and higher insurance and utility bills, climate change is already affecting California's economy. A new statewide report in California's Fifth Climate Change Assessment shows how the costs are rising, rippling across sectors and falling unevenly across the state—and in San Diego, the community is going to need to prepare for large-scale adaptation to much warmer conditions. Led by Gordon McCord and Teevrat Garg of the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, the "Climate Impacts to the Economy" report is one of four statewide topical reports in the Fifth Assessment, a multiyear research effort led by the Governor's Office of Land Use and Climate Innovation (LCI) with state, academic, tribal and community partners. The report finds that the largest monetized damages are in health and labor. But the economic effects can extend well beyond the initial shock, as disruptions in one sector raise costs in others and compound losses across the economy. "The interconnections are important," said McCord, teaching professor at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. "Large impacts on agriculture translate to food prices for households and businesses. What happens in one part of the economy can spread into others." Those losses are also unevenly distributed, with some regions, communities and industries facing much greater risks than others. Inland counties in the Central Valley, Inland Empire and southeastern desert face disproportionate economic burdens. Low-income households, outdoor workers, tribal and rural communities, older adults, young children and people with preexisting conditions are among those most vulnerable to climate-related harms. Drawing on published research, the report brings together estimates of current climate-related costs and projections of how those costs may grow. Among the findings: - Extreme heat is projected to take a growing toll on health. By 2050, California could see about 560 additional heat-related deaths each year, representing roughly $7.7 billion in annual economic impact. - Wildfire smoke carries even larger projected health costs. By 2050, under a high-warming scenario, smoke exposure is projected to cause about 5,060 additional deaths in California each year, representing about $68.8 billion annually. - Heat is expected to cut into working hours. By 2050, workers in highly exposed sectors could lose 5 to 10 work hours a year in the Central Valley and 15 to 20 hours a year in southeastern California. - Drought threatens billions in agricultural losses. By the early 2040s, drought-related water shortages could cause $2.7 billion to $5.1 billion in direct agricultural losses each year. - Sea-level rise puts billions in property at risk. Roughly 20 inches (51 centimeters) of sea-level rise, which could occur as soon as 2050, could inundate an estimated $17.9 billion worth of residential and commercial buildings statewide. What climate change means for household budgets For households, those broader economic impacts can become very personal: higher food, energy and water costs; rising insurance premiums; health expenses; and the cost of making homes more resilient to heat and wildfire. A national estimate cited by the researchers puts lifetime climate-related costs for an American born in 2024 at $500,000 to $1 million. California's insurance market offers one example of how those pressures are already showing up. The amount of property insured through the California FAIR Plan, the state's insurer of last resort, grew from about $50 billion in insured exposure in 2018 to roughly $750 billion as of March 2026. Rather than a single bottom-line figure, the report brings together evidence to show where climate change is taking the greatest economic toll—and on whom. "Understanding where the impacts are greatest and who is most exposed can help us make better decisions about where to focus our efforts," said Garg, associate professor of economics at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. "That's useful for policymakers, but also for communities and the public trying to prepare for what's ahead." A closer look at San Diego Among several regionally focused component reports, Scripps Oceanography climate scientists Julie Kalansky and Tom Corringham led an analysis of San Diego County's climate future in the "San Diego Regional Report." The study noted where climate change will impact a wide range of sectors as well as the many efforts needed to build resilience to climate extremes throughout the region. The report also highlighted that climate adaptation throughout the region needs to continue to adapt to warmer conditions, higher sea levels and more intense precipitation. According to the report, climate models project that San Diego's temperatures will increase by approximately 4°F (2.2°C) by midcentury (2041–2070) compared to the 30-year period that ended in 2010. What's more, the warming will be most acute in spring and fall, "effectively extending the summer season and increasing the number of days with extreme heat. Interior regions are likely to warm by at least 0.56 ºC (1ºF) more than the coast by midcentury," the report's executive summary notes. To Corringham, the relative certitude of the report's conclusions was both impressive and compelling. "In coordinating the San Diego Regional Report, we were struck by how complete a picture we have of the risks our region faces and of the policies that work," Corringham said. "The costs of inaction are high. Well-designed investments in adaptation will pay for themselves many times over. What we need now is sustained support to put that knowledge into practice." Other notable findings covered a range of potential consequences: - An uncertain precipitation future. The amount of precipitation San Diego County will receive in the future is much less certain, but forecast models consistently find that what rain falls will be concentrated more often in short, intense storms. - Sea levels in San Diego will rise. Similar to the rest of the California coast, sea level in San Diego is expected to rise by 0.32–0.49 meters (1.0–1.6 feet) by 2075. - Added heat will stress the power supply. San Diego's iconic mild weather will give way to warmth that will increase stress on the power supply. The report notes that local utilities and tribes are beginning to invest in microgrids, battery storage, distributed solar and undergrounding. - Wildfire risks will remain. Major wildfire risk will remain linked to autumn and early winter Santa Ana wind events. - Biodiversity impacts: Climate change will act as a threat multiplier to native species and habitats, compounding existing pressures from development, habitat fragmentation and invasive species. - Climate-related hazards pose significant public health threats. Rising temperatures, wildfires and extreme precipitation events are increasing cases of heat-related illness, respiratory conditions and more, especially among vulnerable populations. "San Diego has a complex topography and microclimates, which make adaptations across the region varied and challenging, but we are fortunate to work in a region with many dedicated to advancing climate research and using the information to build resilience," said Kalansky, who helped lead the team of roughly 80 authors, including more than 30 from UC San Diego. More information Report: Climate Impacts to the Economy Provided by University of California - San Diego