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Bolsonaro Trade Faces Reckoning in Too-Close-to-Call Brazil Vote

Bloomberg Markets Friday 23 October 2026, 11:00 UTC By Vinícius Andrade, Giovanna Bellotti Azevedo, Barbara Nascimento and Leda Alvim 1 min read
Key Points

Bolsonaro Trade Faces Reckoning in Too-Close-to-Call Brazil Vote Wall Street strategists who recommended loading up on Brazil assets after Flávio Bolsonaro emerged as the frontrunner for president are about to see if they led clients astray or to profits ahead of Sunday’s too-close-to-call runoff. Bolsonaro’s first-round lead over incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spurred firms from UBS Global Wealth Management to Morgan Stanley to upgrade Brazilian stocks, forecasting gains as lofty as...

Bolsonaro Trade Faces Reckoning in Too-Close-to-Call Brazil Vote Wall Street strategists who recommended loading up on Brazil assets after Flávio Bolsonaro emerged as the frontrunner for president are about to see if they led clients astray or to profits ahead of Sunday’s too-close-to-call runoff. Bolsonaro’s first-round lead over incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spurred firms from UBS Global Wealth Management to Morgan Stanley to upgrade Brazilian stocks, forecasting gains as lofty as 25%. JPMorgan Chase & Co. turned positive on the nation’s currency and Citigroup Inc. encouraged investors to buy in across asset classes. At Gavekal Research, Louis-Vincent Gave said a “Bolsonaro swing” could unleash a wave of inflows.
Bolsonaro Trade Faces Reckoning in Too-Close (ORG) Brazil (LOCATION) Flávio Bolsonaro (PERSON) Bolsonaro (PERSON) Luiz Inácio (PERSON) Lula da Silva (PERSON) UBS Global Wealth Management (ORG) Morgan Stanley (ORG) Brazilian (ORG) JPMorgan Chase & Co. (ORG) Citigroup Inc. (ORG) Gavekal Research (ORG) Louis-Vincent Gave (PERSON)
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