Judging overreactions to Week 7: Giants in the playoffs? Vikings rolling to the 1-seed?

Well, if one of your Week 6 takeaways was that the Texans were going to be just fine after all, Week 7 might have suggested you were overreacting. That's the beauty of the middle of the NFL season, isn't it? Just when we think we have stuff figured out, the league still shows the ability to surprise us. The Falcons handed the 49ers their first loss of the season. The Steelers and Browns are 5-2 and tied for first place in the AFC North. J.J. McCarthy is winning road games for the Giants. So we keep doing this weekly exercise here because it's fun, and we do it fully aware that we have no idea what the rest of the season -- or even next week! -- will bring. Here's our Week 7 overreactions column, where we look at five potential takeaways from all the action and judge them as legitimate stances or irrational stretches. Plus, we hit a few fantasy football overreactions at the bottom. Jump to: McCarthy can lead Giants to playoffs? 49ers can't afford to be without Evans? Bengals need to trade for a star RB? Vikings will be the NFC's top seed? Nix, Broncos offense are back? Fantasy overreactions J.J. McCarthy can lead the Giants to the playoffs Acquired from the Vikings in a trade almost a month ago, McCarthy got his first start for the Giants on Sunday in Houston. He threw for 243 yards in the fourth quarter the week before in a relief effort against the Saints, which was enough to earn him the No. 1 spot on the Giants' QB depth chart for Week 7. He drew a tough assignment against Houston's fearsome defense, but Giants coach John Harbaugh decided McCarthy was up for it, and he was right. McCarthy looked extremely comfortable and confident all day, ripping throws into tight windows and operating the offense cleanly. Giants coaches wanted to see a smooth operation, and after the game Harbaugh pointed out that there were no procedural penalties or glaring errors. The run game sprang to life, gaining 188 yards on 34 carries and winning the game in overtime when Cam Skattebo got New York into field goal range with a 42-yard run and Devin Singletary rendered the kick unnecessary with a 30-yard touchdown run on the next play. McCarthy was 20-for-28 for 252 yards and no turnovers. He looked very much like he belonged. Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION No one has wanted to take this seriously, but the first-place Giants are 4-2-1 and will carry at least a 1.5-game NFC East lead into Week 8 regardless of what happens between the Cowboys and Eagles on Monday night. Harbaugh has made a major difference in his first season as Giants head coach. They're avoiding mistakes, overcoming injuries and finding ways to win. Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy called an outstanding game for McCarthy. Skattebo bounced back after last week's soft benching and said after the game that he agreed with and appreciated the way it was handled by the coaching staff. Edge rusher Abdul Carter basically dominated the second half on defense. Cornerback Deonte Banks shadowed Nico Collins effectively. The Giants are playing very good team football right now. Given what we saw in Minnesota, McCarthy is a tough guy to count on. But he's also talented enough to have been picked 10th in the 2024 NFL draft, and it's entirely possible that what he needed was a new situation. There is a world where he flops completely. There is a world where he's inconsistent the rest of the way and the Giants don't have enough around him to cash in. But there's also absolutely a world in which he and they play just well enough to win a bad NFC East. Right now, the math tells us that it's absolutely possible, and the Giants are the betting favorite to win their division. The 49ers can't afford to be without Mike Evans Evans' Achilles injury left him unable to go in San Francisco's Week 7 game in Atlanta. With Deebo Samuel Sr. also out, the Niners were down to four wide receivers. Brock Purdy targeted Jacob Cowing, Jordan Watkins and Brandin Cooks a combined 14 times. He targeted his running backs 14 times and his tight ends 10 times. It was Purdy's worst game of the season, as his two interceptions doubled his 2026 total and his 54.3 QBR was his first time under 65 this year. In another first, the 49ers lost to the Falcons to fall to 6-1. Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION One reason the 49ers were able to survive their ridiculous rash of injuries and start 6-0 was that they hadn't really suffered a significant injury to any of their pillars. I'm talking about Purdy, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Fred Warner and Trent Williams. (When I said this on TV last week, some people yelled "But Nick Bosa!" at me, but Bosa has missed 22 games over the past three seasons. If he's a pillar, he isn't exactly a load-bearing one.) Evans is so new there that I hesitated to initially count him in that group, but the 49ers looked lost without him Sunday. Evans' ability to win contested catches, particularly in the red zone and end zone, gives the 49ers an element their other wide receivers don't -- even when all the other guys are healthy. Not having him made the Niners easier to defend, and the fact that McCaffrey left this game for a while with an injury of his own didn't help, either. Purdy has a QBR of 90 this season when Evans is on the field, and the quarterback has thrown 10 touchdown passes to two interceptions. When Evans isn't playing, Purdy's QBR drops to 56, with five touchdown passes and two interceptions. The 49ers head into a much-needed Week 8 bye, after which they hope to get Evans and a few other key guys back. Evans was an important pickup this offseason as the 49ers were able to lure the longtime Buccaneer out of Tampa Bay. He has shown why when he has played, and he also showed why when he didn't. The Bengals need to trade for Saquon Barkley or Jonathan Taylor Cincinnati basically took the first half off Sunday and still managed to crush the Lamar Jackson-less division-rival Ravens 35-13. The Bengals outscored Baltimore 35-0 in the second half, which sounds crazy because it is. The last team to be outscored by 35 or more points in a second half was the 2015 Colts, who got outscored by 39 by the Jaguars. Baltimore had never been outscored by 35 in a half until Sunday. After trailing 13-0 at halftime, the Bengals dominated the second half on the strength of Joe Burrow's arm. The quarterback was 22-for-30 for 292 yards and four touchdown passes. When everyone is healthy, the Bengals' passing offense is about as reliable a unit as there is in the league. The Bengals' run game this season has been anything but. Cincinnati entered Sunday's action ranked 27th in the league with 82.8 rush yards per game, and it ran for 73 yards on 20 carries Sunday. The Bengals are 4-2 and a half game behind that weird Pittsburgh/Cleveland first-place tie in the division, but the Bengals have not been able to run the ball at all, and they would love to find a way to balance the offense if they're going to make the run they expect to make. Verdict: OVERREACTION Before I start, I want to make it clear that we have no idea whether the Eagles or Colts have or will have any interest in trading their star running backs. But even if they do, it would be very unlike Cincinnati to surrender draft capital for them. Chase Brown has been a very good back for several seasons now. He ran for 990 yards and seven touchdowns in 2024 and 1,019 yards and six touchdowns in 2025. And even though he hasn't been good on the ground this season, Brown is still a factor in the passing game. Brown isn't the only problem with the Bengals' run game, and his track record indicates a good chance of him improving as the season goes along. If I were the Bengals, I'd be looking harder at potentially available linebackers or defensive backs ahead of the trade deadline than running backs. The Vikings are going to be the top seed in the NFC playoffs Minnesota improved to 6-0 on Sunday with a 16-10 victory over the Colts. Brian Flores' blitz-crazy defense flustered Daniel Jones and Indianapolis all day, and after trailing 10-6 in the second half, the Vikings pulled ahead on the strength of a T.J. Hockenson touchdown catch and Will Reichard's third field goal of the game, both in the fourth quarter. With the 49ers losing, the Vikings are the lone remaining undefeated team in the NFC and one of only two in the NFL pending the Chiefs' Sunday night game against the Seahawks. Verdict: OVERREACTION Yes, if the season ended right now, the Vikings would be the NFC's No. 1 seed. So of course it's possible. But the season does not end now. It ends in early January. And the Vikings are going to have to show more on offense than they have to date if they're going to have a chance to accomplish lofty things. Sunday again brought a dominant defensive effort accompanied by an uninspiring offensive one. The Vikings had 139 yards passing and 136 rushing against one of the worst defenses in the league, and that's with guys such as Christian Darrisaw, Jordan Mason, Hockenson and Jordan Addison back from the injuries that cost them games prior to their Week 6 bye. Kyler Murray has occasionally looked like a quarterback turning the corner, but Sunday was not a stellar effort by anyone on the Minnesota offense, him included. The Vikings believed they would start to look better once everyone got back healthy, and maybe they will eventually. But their next four games are against the Lions, Bills, Packers and 49ers, whose combined record is 19-7. Minnesota is going to need to score more than it has been to make hay against the rest of the schedule and finish atop the conference. Bo Nix and the Broncos' offense are back, baby! Nix threw for 222 yards in Denver's 30-16 victory over Arizona on Sunday. That's his second-highest passing total this season. He rushed for 73 yards on seven carries, including a 62-yard touchdown that put the Broncos ahead just before halftime. It was the first time this season Nix has rushed for more than 10 yards in a game after averaging 23 rushing yards per game in his first two seasons in the league. The last time we saw Nix, he played so badly -- in a win over the Seahawks! -- that he just about made Ryan Fitzpatrick cry on the Amazon postgame show. So this was cathartic and much needed for Nix, Sean Payton, Davis Webb and anyone connected with the Broncos' offense. Verdict: OVERREACTION It was awesome for Nix to look as good as he did Sunday, especially on the long touchdown run. Nix's legs are critical to his success, and if he's gaining confidence in them as he gets further removed from his ankle injury, that's totally fair. But guys, Sunday was the fifth time this season the Cardinals have allowed 30 or more points in a game. They've played seven games. Denver's 30 points is actually only the fifth most a Cardinals opponent has scored in a game this season. The only two teams that didn't get to 30 against Arizona are the only two who lost to the Cardinals. Again, good for Nix and the Broncos to score a ton of points against a defense that gives up a ton of points. But let's see it again next week against the Chiefs before we get too excited. Quick-hitter fantasy overreactions Malik Willis is a startable QB in superflex leagues. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Willis is sitting at QB3 for the week as I type this, and QB20 for the season in points per game with the tough part of his schedule behind him. Willis' running ability gives him a floor and makes him a worthy start if you need two QBs. Malachi Fields should be a priority waiver add this week. OVERREACTION. First off, the Giants are on bye next week, so you can't use him anyway. Second, this passing game is going to run through Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely, and the run game looked good Sunday against a tough defense. It's good that Fields had a big game, and he obviously has ability, but it's going to be tough for the rookie to have consistent week-to-week impact in this offense. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Tank Dell sap Nico Collins' fantasy value. OVERREACTION. Collins had a tough game, and the Texans' WR room is a lot deeper than it was a couple of weeks ago, but Collins is still going to be C.J. Stroud's go-to guy when he's on the field. He still had five targets Sunday, tied for second on the team with Xavier Hutchinson, one behind tight end Dalton Schultz. Weird game. You don't want Collins? Trade him to me, please. Ashton Jeanty is not startable right now. OVERREACTION. Dude gets the Jets next week, and the Rams are tough to run on and got up big early. Flush this one. Jeanty isn't the RB1 you drafted, but he's still a starter. Tony Pollard needs to be in your lineup every week. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Pollard is having a better season than you think. Scouts who watch the Titans think he looks more explosive than he has in a few years. He could get traded to a better team, and even if he doesn't, he has a soft fantasy RB schedule the rest of the way. He's a lead back in an improving offense who you should start.