Entering the 2026 college football season, the Oregon Ducks were widely believed to be in strong position for the program's first National Championship.
Years of elite recruiting under head coach Dan Lanning, sustained success in the Big Ten Conference, and the return of starting quarterback Dante Moore set Oregon up to challenge for a conference championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff. Instead, the season went off the rails almost immediately.
A close season-opening win over Boise State did little to inspire confidence, then the Ducks were demolished by a surprising Oklahoma State team, with the underlying performance far exceeding the final score. Still, Oregon had an opportunity to salvage their season with a trip to Los Angeles to play a then-ranked USC Trojans team. And despite Moore suffering a scary injury on an inexcusable hit from an SC linebacker, they did.
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Backup Dylan Raiola was outstanding, the defense did enough to stop Jayden Maiava, and the Ducks came away with an impressive 41-27 win. After the game, Lanning was effusive, saying, "I guess if you're interested in winning football games and you're from this area, you should go to Oregon," referring to high school players from the Los Angeles and Southern California area. "If you want to go to a Chris Brown concert, you should go here."
Just a few weeks later, his comments immediately came back to haunt him. Hosting UCLA, the Ducks played arguably one of the ugliest games in program history. Somehow, incredibly, Oregon had seven turnovers in a 17-15 loss to an LA-based opponent. After their head coach proudly said that recruits should be heading to Eugene if they cared about winning games. Not a great look.
It got worse this past Saturday.
On the road at Illinois, Oregon was once again disappointing. Despite entering the game as 10.5-point favorites, the Ducks had a touchdown on their first drive of the game, only to muster just three points over the remaining 55 minutes. Their next four drives went punt, punt, fumble, missed field goal. All while gaining 22 yards on 16 plays.
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They finally put together a long scoring drive in the second to go up 10-0, only to immediately give up a 75-yard rushing touchdown to Aidan Laughery. Late in the second half, Oregon finally moved the ball more effectively, though were repeatedly forced to settle for long field goals, which they promptly missed. Meanwhile, Illinois put together multiple touchdown drives to effectively end the game.
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Yes, Oregon has been forced to start a backup quarterback. Yes, they've had a rash of poor conduct among their wide receiving corps. No, there's no excuse for the season going off the rails this much. To the point where the Ducks didn't receive a single vote in this week's AP Poll. And all of it's raising questions around Lanning's future in Eugene.
A 9-3 season, with a big injury to Moore, would be one thing. But the Ducks' schedule doesn't get much easier. They host a rejuvenated, and ranked, Northwestern team on Saturday. They travel to Ohio State on Nov. 7, host Michigan on the 14th, then have to win a rivalry game against Washington to finish the season.
Five losses suddenly looks possible, and six isn't off the table either. Lanning's earned quite a bit of the benefit of the doubt with multiple College Football Playoff appearances, and the Ducks won two games in last year's tournament. Including a shutout of a very good Texas Tech team in the Orange Bowl. Expectations in Oregon though, aren't what they used to be.
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The Ducks have one of the most expensive rosters in college football. They routinely spend to bring in big recruiting classes, and have a consensus top-4 class coming in 2027. Along with those investments come championship aspirations, which now seem further away than they did a few months ago.
Raiola clearly isn't the answer after Moore leaves for the NFL. The defense, which was a huge strength in 2025, has looked very average in 2026. And the discipline and toughness Lanning seemed to bring to the program hasn't continued in 2026, with some very poor off-field decision making this year.
It's unlikely the Ducks make a move this season, but it seems clear that Lanning could go from championship contender to on the hot seat in just a few months. Few things move faster, or change as frequently, as modern college football.