Predictions and picks for the new season: Who will win? Who's under pressure?

In the seven months since Michigan bulldozed its way through Division I to claim the 2026 national title in April, a lot has happened. Players moved through the transfer portal (last season's top scorer Milan Momcilovic is now at Kentucky!). Coaches moved to new programs -- and, in the case of Dusty May, to the pro ranks. The NCAA also announced a new eligibility rule that has led to lawsuits and roster uncertainty across the country. With all the news, it's time for one final look at the top storylines, players and coaches who will shape this 2026-27 season. ESPN's Jeff Borzello, Joe Lunardi and Myron Medcalf answer eight burning questions -- and make their picks, with Neil Paine, for everything from Final Four participants and conference winners to All-America teams and beyond. Jump to: Picks & predictions STORYLINES How feasible is a Michigan title repeat? Borzello: Michigan is coming off the most turbulent and chaotic offseason of any recent national champion, losing four starters from the title team in the weeks after the buzzer sounded. Then it lost its head coach in late June and its most talented incoming recruit in late August. Based purely on those things, a repeat championship is not the most likely outcome for the Wolverines this season. Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney should be one of the best backcourts in the country, and incoming transfers J.P. Estrella and Moustapha Thiam are hoping to be the next Michigan big men to develop into first-round NBA draft picks while in Ann Arbor. But the loss of coach May deep into the offseason will hurt, as will five-star freshman Brandon McCoy's torn ACL that will keep him out all season. There's still enough on the roster for Michigan to advance to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, but a repeat championship seems too ambitious. Medcalf: It is slightly feasible, mostly because this year's field doesn't have a 2025-26 Michigan. There isn't a team with three veteran future lottery picks and a supporting cast to help blitz the field. The upcoming season won't feature physically imposing freshmen such as A.J. Dybantsa, Caleb Wilson and Cameron Boozer, who were all top-five picks in this year's draft. There were eight or nine teams that seemed capable of making a dominant run in the NCAA tournament at the beginning of last season. This year, the numbers seem closer to three or four -- and none are as good as last year's championship squad. McCoy's injury puts drastically more weight on the shoulders of Thiam, Cadeau, Estrella and McKenney in Ann Arbor, but the gap between good teams and great teams going into 2026-27 just seems smaller. There is a path for Mike Boynton's team to go back-to-back, but an early NCAA tournament collapse seems more likely. Lunardi: Michigan is one of the least likely repeat candidates of the recent past. Florida was an excellent choice a year ago, with a loaded roster of returnees, but only reached the round of 32. UConn, of course, did repeat in 2024, and Villanova captured two titles in three years before that (2016 and 2018). Going back to back is hard under the best of circumstances, and the Wolverines have little stability compared to those Florida, UConn and Villanova teams. Heavy roster turnover, an unexpected coaching change and the Big Ten being arguably the toughest top tier of any conference are hardly a favorable combination for cutting down the nets in April. Michigan will remain very good but will be nowhere near the dominant champions of 2025-26. Which storyline are you most closely watching? Borzello: Duke's approach to the season will be fascinating to watch in the early weeks. The Blue Devils are coming off heartbreaking NCAA tournament defeats the past two seasons. They don't have an impact one-and-done lottery pick such as Cooper Flagg or Boozer entering the program. But they still enter the season ranked No. 2 in the country -- higher expectations than they had in either the Flagg or Boozer year. Coach Jon Scheyer also faces more roster questions than he has in recent campaigns. Will it be Caleb Foster or Cayden Boozer at the point? Is Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell ready for the spotlight? How fast will Scheyer bring along Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, the potential No. 1 pick in the 2028 draft? Is Scheyer ready to go 10-, 11-, 12-deep? If Scheyer pushes the right buttons at the right time, the Blue Devils could erase the demons of the past two tourney exits and cut down the nets. Medcalf: The start of the college basketball season is always packed with unknowns -- key players coming back from injuries, new coaches in new places, five-star freshmen on the verge of stardom. But we've never endured the uncertainties created by the fifth-year eligibility drama and the hundreds (yes, hundreds) of legal cases that could impact rosters around the country. LSU had just four players on its official roster a few weeks ago. Through NCAA clearances and court cases, coach Will Wade has added more pieces, but transfers Donovan Dent and Skyy Clark, both standouts at UCLA last season, are in the crosshairs of an NCAA that has vowed to fight every Class of 2022 player seeking additional eligibility. In an exhibition game between Louisville and Kansas last week, there were four players, including sixth-year case Trey Kaufman-Renn, combined on both rosters dealing with eligibility uncertainty. With days before the season is set to begin, the NCAA has not expressed any desire to back down. If anything, it is fighting harder, seemingly gaining ground in the Wisne federal class action case in Colorado that, if ruled in favor of the 2022 high school class, would give those athletes a blanket waiver. Get your popcorn ready, because we can't actually be sure if everyone on a roster today will be allowed to play college basketball this season. Lunardi: Naturally, NCAA tournament expansion to 76 teams this season is my top story and area of concern. Most every reasonable projection has the majority of the eight new bids going to middling teams from power conferences. This is the wrong approach on many levels, but the current selection and seeding mechanism rewards the kind of scheduling only major conferences can achieve. It has never been more important to create a system for teams to become tournament eligible comparable to college football's bowl eligibility criteria. It has also never been less likely to happen. Which team has the most to lose this season? Borzello: Florida is in a unique position that we might not see again in college basketball for a long, long time. Depending on Denzel Aberdeen's eligibility status, the Gators could have four of their top seven players back from their national championship team two seasons ago. That type of retention is uncommon from year to year, let alone from two seasons ago. Multiple first-round picks passed up chances at the NBA two years in a row, and only a few players entered the transfer portal -- and one key player who did leave (Aberdeen) is trying to return a year later. Technically, Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu could all come back to Gainesville for 2027-28, but this might be coach Todd Golden's last chance with the core of a title-winning team. Throw in that Florida will open the season as a preseason national championship favorite, and there's plenty at stake for the Gators. Medcalf: It has to be Kentucky, specifically coach Mark Pope. He reportedly spent $6 million to land Momcilovic, one of the best shooters in America. Former Washington guard Zoom Diallo is a significant pickup, too. And Malachi Moreno, the seven-footer who withdrew from the NBA draft, could flirt with the lottery if he has another strong season. Pope is coaching a team with a rabid fanbase that understands how the landscape has changed in the NIL world. This isn't just a season about how Pope finishes for a program that hasn't reached the Final Four since 2015. It's also about Pope attempting to ensure that Kentucky will remain a national title contender, even as the game shifts. Another tough season would put him in a difficult spot. Lunardi: How much longer is Rick Pitino going to coach? How much more can the St. John's boosters (billionaire businessman Mike Repole, specifically) spend? Eventually there has to be a payoff beyond the Sweet 16. The Red Storm have won 61 games the past two seasons combined, along with a pair of Big East tournament titles on their home floor. But those are baseline expectations. The NIL era brings more unrealistic expectations than ever before. Can St. John's get to April before the clock runs out on Pitino's tenure? Which team will make the biggest leap? Borzello: There's only one team in my preseason top 25 that didn't make the NCAA tournament last season: Eric Musselman's Trojans. They started off 12-1 last season and looked poised to hear their name on Selection Sunday after a three-game win streak left them at 18-6 on Feb. 8. USC wouldn't win another game, dropping eight in a row to end the campaign and miss the postseason entirely. This season, the Trojans have one of the most talented on-paper rosters in the country, with five former McDonald's All-Americans to go along with proven power-conference starters Rodney Rice, KJ Lewis and Jacob Cofie. There have been preseason injury issues, but if those don't linger too deep into the regular season and returning sophomore Alijah Arenas can live up to the offseason buzz, this is a second-weekend NCAA tournament team. Medcalf: I think the answer is still Texas. Yes, this is a team that made a shocking run to the Sweet 16 as an 11-seed that started in the First Four, but the Longhorns finished the regular season 10th in the SEC. Now, coach Sean Miller has a squad that can chase the program's first Final Four appearance since 2003. Matas Vokietaitis, the Longhorns' NCAA tournament hero, is back, along with top transfers David Punch and Isaiah Johnson. They also add Marcus Spears Jr., the former No. 1 recruit in the 2027 class. Last year's Texas squad won 21 games before that fabulous rally in March, but this season's team won't shock anyone who has been paying attention to what Miller has built in Austin. This group has the potential to do things that haven't been done at Texas in more than two decades. Lunardi: It's hard to believe it has been less than four years since Miami's last Final Four appearance, but the roller-coaster turnaround is nearly complete. Shortly after that 2023 run, the Jim Larranaga era bottomed out with a 3-17 ACC mark the next season, Larranaga's last. New coach Jai Lucas and Miami's checkbook took over quickly, securing a talent-rich group with Final Four upside. We like Miami to at least reach the NCAA's second weekend. MORE PRESEASON READING First top-25 team to exit the NCAA tournament? Borzello: Kentucky. Iowa State is the only team in the AP Top 25 that I didn't have in my preseason top 25, but I'm not willing to bet on an early exit for a Cyclones team that could have Tamin Lipsey in the fold this season. So I'll go with the Wildcats. It's a risky pick, given the talent that Pope landed in the portal, particularly the explosive backcourt duo of Diallo and Alex Wilkins and Iowa State transfer Momcilovic. I just have a few questions about the long-term outlook of the team, centered mostly around perimeter shooting and defensive consistency. Diallo made 29 3-pointers in two years at Washington, Wilkins shot 32% from 3 and will now have to transition from a top-10 usage rate in college basketball. At the other end of the floor, there aren't too many players considered high-level defenders, especially when it comes to on-the-ball guarding. There's certainly a world in which the backcourt coalesces perfectly and Pope has an elite guard duo to go with Momcilovic and potential breakout big man Malachi Moreno. If that happens, this pick will age poorly. Medcalf: I'll go with Michigan. Teams that win the national championship face immense pressure the following season. And while UConn pulled off a back-to-back run in 2023 and '24, a successful follow-up hasn't been the norm, especially in the NIL world. In 2018, North Carolina failed to reach the second weekend a year after securing the national championship. That became a pattern for future champions. Baylor (2021 national champion), Kansas (2022) and Florida (2025) all lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament the year after winning it all. This Michigan team does not resemble last year's group, yet the expectations won't change because every team in the country is dealing with turbulence. The champions that have failed to reach the second weekend over the past decade all experienced similar turnover to what Michigan currently has. The Wolverines could meet the same fate as some of their predecessors. Lunardi: The new era of college basketball has hit Gonzaga hard. The Bulldogs still have elite coaching and plenty of resources, but the loyalty and player development that has long fueled the program has been replaced by an offseason of roster roulette. That, plus a challenging move to the new Pac-12, could make for a bumpy ride in Spokane. The Zags figure to open tournament play in their hometown, which should mitigate an early upset, but only if they earn a top four seed. That is no longer a guarantee. Which team is this year's Miami (Ohio)? Borzello: Grand Canyon. I don't know if the Lopes can go on an undefeated run through the regular season, regardless of how their roster shakes out, but coach Bryce Drew will have the most talented mid-major team in the country, if the program's three five-for-five hopefuls -- Jaden Henley, Dan Skillings Jr. and Tre Holloman -- are given another year of eligibility. Henley was one of the best players in the Mountain West last season, while Skillings and Holloman are proven power-conference producers. Makaih Williams was another all-conference performer returning to the fold, and Drew hit the portal for several more impact players, headlined by St. John's transfer Dylan Darling. If courtroom decisions go Grand Canyon's way, it will have the talent of a high-major roster. The Lopes will get statement opportunities in non-league play, too, with games against Saint Louis, Oklahoma State, Memphis and Florida. Medcalf: I definitely understand the High Point and Grand Canyon picks by my colleagues. But look at their budgets. High Point and Grand Canyon are spending a lot of cash on talent. High Point's students have access to a five-star steakhouse, where they can eat for free. Grand Canyon has millions in NIL money to dish out. That's not happening for Takayo Siddle and UNC Wilmington. Still, this is a team that has won 27 games each in three of the past five years. The Seahawks have one NCAA tournament appearance in seven seasons under Siddle, but they're ready for another bid. And they return one of the best mid-major players in America in 7-foot, All-CAA first-team selection Patrick Wessler. It's their time. Lunardi: For the first time in forever, the best true mid-major entering the season is not Saint Mary's. It's High Point (I don't count A-10, American, Mountain West and Pac-12 schools, as those should be multibid conferences in a 76-team NCAA field). But the Panthers, the class of the Big South, have what it takes to be a March darling. Again. Flynn Clayman has more than kept things going after taking over for Creighton-bound Alan Huss, winning 31 games and knocking off Wisconsin in last year's tournament. You know the college basketball world agrees when only one power conference program (LSU) will schedule the Panthers. They did land games with Liberty, Saint Louis, George Mason and -- you guessed it! -- Miami (Ohio), and they already walloped a good UNC Wilmington team in an exhibition game. High Point has 87 wins over the past three seasons with no end in sight. Which player has an outside shot to win the Wooden Award? Borzello: I planned to go with Arizona's Motiejus Krivas, but then he was picked as the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year, so that doesn't feel much like an "outside shot" anymore. So I'll pivot to UConn's Braylon Mullins, who missed the first six games of his freshman campaign with an ankle injury before averaging 12 points and 3.5 rebounds for the season. Those numbers won't wow you, but project forward to the upcoming season and things begin to look different. Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed have moved on and Solo Ball is redshirting, so there are a lot of shots available in Storrs, Connecticut, this season. Mullins was one of the elite shooters in the 2025 recruiting class but made just 33.5% of his 3's last season; there should be some progression in that department. If the Huskies are as good as they are projected to be -- Big East favorites and a top-five team nationally -- and Mullins takes a step forward to 18 to 20 points per game while shooting 40% from 3, he will be in the Wooden conversation. Medcalf: Tamin Lipsey, the Iowa State point guard who is making a legal push for a fifth season, can be a game changer for the Cyclones, if he's cleared to play. While we've spent most of our energy on the potential fifth-year impact of players such as Louisville's Seth Trimble and Missouri's Mark Mitchell, Lipsey might be the most important fifth-year prospect in the group. Lipsey (13.5 points per game, 5.1 assists, 2.3 steals) could also stabilize this program while it awaits the return of Killyan Toure from offseason shoulder surgery. Lipsey will battle Jeremy Fears Jr. for the "best point guard in America" label in 2026-27 and possibly in the bid for national honors. Lunardi: A year ago, I picked the best player on what I thought was the best team (Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg). This time the choice is the best player on a possible Final Four sleeper. Tyler Tanner and Vanderbilt continue to fly under the radar in a loaded SEC, but Tanner remains the top returnee in the conference. And the Commodores return just enough to remain in the top third of the league with a workable NCAA tournament seed. Vandy will ultimately live and die with Tanner, but the good news is he does everything well. If the team wins enough games, Tanner could clean up on postseason awards. What coaching situation are you watching closely? Borzello: The potential retirement of Kansas' Bill Self is one of the biggest storylines in college basketball this season. He has dealt with a number of health-related issues over the past couple of years, missing the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments in 2023 to have two stents placed to treat blocked arteries. He was hospitalized again in summer 2025 and underwent another stent procedure. He then missed a game against Colorado last season when he was hospitalized out of an "abundance of caution." After last year's NCAA tournament exit, Self discussed his health and future with his family before announcing he planned to return to Kansas for another season. He's one of the greatest coaches in college basketball history, a Hall of Famer with two national championships and more than 850 wins. And he's geared up for (at least) one more run, with No. 1 recruit Tyran Stokes and the potential return of starters Tre White and Melvin Council Jr. Lawrence, Kansas, will once again have plenty of eyeballs on it this season. Medcalf: Miami fans don't want to hear me say Jai Lucas' name in this spot, and I understand why. He just signed a five-year contract extension with the program after orchestrating the greatest year-to-year turnaround in college basketball history. That deal suggests that both sides want Miami to become a consistent powerhouse. Lucas has proved he can lure top talent, but he's also a former assistant at Texas, Kentucky and Duke. Both Duke and Kentucky could have openings a year from now. Kansas, too. The NBA could also have interest in the 37-year-old head coach. With another elite season from Lucas, Miami might have to fight again to keep him in town. An extension gives the Hurricanes security but only for now. Lunardi: Sticking with the Vanderbilt theme, coach Mark Byington is arguably the best coach at a non-elite program. With an All-American point guard and another NCAA tournament team in Nashville, Byington would be on the short list to fill the highest of high-profile openings. Think about it. A year ago, who would have thought Michigan would turn over? The Self retirement rumors are frequent. Kentucky's big wins under Pope are not. Vandy is always pushing the boulder uphill in the SEC. It's one thing to do more with less. At some point, Byington might want to go after more with more.