Global study counts almost 3 million climate change-related deaths

Global Lancet study counts almost 3 million climate change-related deaths In short: A new Lancet report has found the number of heat-related deaths has been growing since the 2015 Paris Agreement, despite real gains from the climate pact. It says climate action is not keeping pace with increasing health impacts as the world keeps burning fossil fuels. What's next? Researchers are calling for climate change to be declared a global health emergency to enable a coordinated global response. The latest global study on climate change-related health risks has found that 3 million deaths between 2016 and 2023 can be attributed to a warming planet. Published ahead of the world's COP 31 climate conference in Turkiye, this year's Lancet Countdown report noted significant progress had been made on key climate goals that could reduce heating by 2100 from up to 3.5 degrees Celsius to 2.6C. It found the growth of energy from renewable sources had "vastly exceeded expectations", but that global action on climate change was "grossly insufficient", and that this had already led to significant harm to human health. Almost 3 million climate-related deaths It is the first time the authors of the Lancet Countdown study have quantified heat-related deaths directly due to human-caused climate change. The authors estimate more than half a million deaths per year between 2016 and 2023 were linked to heat and that 68 per cent of those deaths were caused by climate change. Developing countries had the highest proportion of heat-related deaths, which the authors found "reflected the disproportionate adverse impacts of climate change on those least responsible for it". Study co-author and Macquarie University climate health expert Professor Paul Beggs said vulnerable people were most at risk from climate change globally, but no-one was immune. "Even here in Australia, we know people do die from heatwaves, people do die from bushfire smoke exposure and things like that," he said. "So I think it doesn't matter where you live; climate change is already having an impact on health, and that's only going to increase." According to recently released peer-reviewed studies, severe heat killed more than 50,000 people across Europe during this year's Northern Hemisphere summer, which was marred by rolling heatwaves and fires. The scientists attributed about two-thirds of these deaths to human-caused climate change. The Lancet report tracks 54 indicators of how climate change and efforts to tackle it affect health, but warns that wider, system-wide risks could be far greater than the individual measures suggest. "A severe El Niño threatens to compound the impacts of climate change and trigger unprecedented climate-related humanitarian crises globally," the report states. "Climate change has become a global health emergency. Addressing it requires urgent course correction." More heatwaves, droughts The study authors noted that the past 11 years had been the hottest on record, accompanied by more frequent heatwaves and droughts. Climate change has increased the risk and intensity of droughts, which affected more than 50 per cent of global land in 2025 for at least a month. At the same time, extreme rainfall has also increased, resulting in a higher flood and landslide risk. The report found the world's exposure to very high or extremely high risk of wildfire had also increased. Climate change was also affecting productivity, according to the researchers. "Globally, heat exposure caused the loss of 573 billion potential work hours in 2025, resulting in US $1.07 trillion in income losses," the report found, with low-and middle-income countries most affected. Western Sydney physician Aditya Vyas co-authored a separate Lancet climate health report due to be released on Oceania. He said health workers had recorded a 13 per cent increase in emergency presentations during heatwaves, which he described as a "silent killer" in the community. "The impacts are worse now than they were before, but also they're worsening, and for the next generation this is going to have a real impact on their health status," Dr Vyas said. 'Vested interests' obstructing progress The Lancet authors found fossil fuels continued to supply about 80 per cent of global energy, pushing energy-related emissions to a record high in 2024. "Unequal access to clean energy and the persistent use of polluting fuels are not only exacerbating climate change risks, but also directly harming health and increasing vulnerabilities through air pollution," the report states. The authors also cited "vested interests", in the form of "lobbying and disinformation by fossil fuel interests and political allies", as an obstruction in the effort to transition towards clean energy. This was "countering the growing body of scientific literature on the links between health and climate change." The authors singled out the USA for promoting fossil fuel expansion and withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. "The growing political support for fossil fuels from the USA and other countries threatens to lock the world into a future of irreversible damage and mounting risks to health and survival." Air quality preventing deaths The authors also provided cause for hope in the form of growth in renewable energy sources and its effect on human health. They estimated that 400,000 deaths were prevented in 2023 compared to 2016 due to improved air quality from switching to cleaner energy sources. Electricity use in transport had increased by 427 per cent from 2016 to 2023 globally, the report's authors noted, which, together with air pollution control and active travel promotion, had "prevented 85,000 deaths across 75 countries". Scaling up access to off-grid renewables would prevent another 2 million deaths annually, which could be "attributable to household air pollution from solid-fuel use". Professor Beggs said the report was an urgent call to prioritise human health over fossil fuels. "Australia is the president of COP this year," he said. "We're really hoping for big things in terms of progress on mitigating climate change, and that means reducing fossil fuel emissions."