Bearista cups are returning at Starbucks. Can the viral sensation boost holiday sales again?

What's better than one holiday-season hit? Two, of course — and that is exactly what Starbucks is aiming for this year with the return of the Bearista. Starbucks is bringing back its viral Bearista glass cold cup as part of its 2026 holiday collection. The 20-ounce bear-shaped cup, topped with a green hat and a green-and-white candy cane-striped straw, created a social media frenzy last December, with people standing in long lines at coffeehouses across the country in hopes of getting their hands on one. The very limited-supply cups sold out in less than a day. Preceded by a strong Red Cup Day, another popular seasonal promotion, the coffee giant said its U.S. comparable transactions turned positive for the first time in two years in its fiscal 2026 first quarter, which ended in December 2025. U.S. same-store sales rose a much better-than-expected 4%. These results marked a major milestone in CEO Brian Niccol's overhaul of the iconic brand. He came to Starbucks a little over two years ago after engineering a successful turnaround at Chipotle . The CEO has been making progress in his Back to Starbucks plan. It has taken longer than expected to get going and has had some fits and starts. But it is starting to take hold, with strong results in the March and June quarters as well. Finding ways to keep the momentum going, including buzzy limited-time promos, may help win over skeptical investors. Mizuho analyst Nick Setyan is among those on Wall Street who expect Starbucks to double up on last holiday season's success. "Merchandise seems to be all the rage across the restaurant industry," he said, noting that competitors like Dutch Bros have also embraced merchandise and sticker drops to engage customers. Starbucks announced Monday that a new set of mystery Bearista glass cold cups will hit U.S. locations Nov. 10, followed by the return of the original Bearista on Dec. 1. The company's Instagram and TikTok posts about the rollout have already generated more than 100,000 combined likes. While holding back the new pricing, the original Bearista cost $29.95 last year. The cups that were resold online have fetched hundreds of dollars. Starbucks is taking this year's hype a step further with its Holiday Bearista collection, arriving Nov. 5 and featuring Bearista-themed drinkware, plush keychains, and matching accessories — kind of a pregame to get people excited about the main event. Starbucks has also set this year's Red Cup Day — when the company gives away reusable holiday cups to customers who order handcrafted holiday drinks — for Nov. 17. Niccol is certainly hoping to recapture lightning in the Bearista bottle. But the question is: Can Starbucks pull off a repeat? The economic backdrop has certainly deteriorated over the past year, with consumers battling inflation at every turn — from the gas pumps to the grocery store. For perspective, AAA reported that the average cost of a gallon of unleaded gasoline last October was around $3.06. This year, gas prices are around $4.28 per gallon. Setyan said he is not that concerned about inflation. "What is going on is there is a shift in how consumers are spending, and they prefer what they perceive as value, and value isn't necessarily just a price point," he added. "So, if they believe the experience is worth it, they're willing to spend." Despite his optimism, the analyst cut his price target on Starbucks to $105 from $115 last week. He cited lower valuations among restaurant peers and a slightly reduced fiscal 2027 profit forecast. He kept his hold rating. Another strong holiday quarter at Starbucks would offer more evidence that customers are still willing to spend for premium coffee despite the economic challenges. That would reinforce Wall Street's confidence in the turnaround and potentially give the stock another reason to move higher. But first, the company has to get by its September quarter release Thursday evening. SBUX YTD mountain Starbucks YTD Starbucks shares are up nearly 21% over the past 12 months. Zooming in, the stock is doing even better year to date compared to the S & P 500 's gain of roughly 12.8% in 2026. While still above $100 per share as of Wednesday morning trading, Starbucks is about 7% below its 52-week high of $110.51 from mid-August. There was a dip earlier this month after the Financial Times reported that Starbucks was exploring a takeover of Niccol's former company, Chipotle. Starbucks later denied the report. Shares recovered. On the positive side, recent data from consumer insights firm HundredX found Starbucks is standing out against Dutch Bros and other rivals. The holiday season is another chance to build on that momentum. Social media platforms have amplified the appeal of these limited-edition releases among younger consumers, especially Gen Z, whose ages currently range from 14 to 29. "I do expect [Starbucks] to be very successful now that they've gained that expertise in terms of how to approach that audience successfully," Setyan said. "Why you so cute?" That's what Starbucks asked in the social media video promoting its latest Bearista collection, tapping directly into what marketing and culture expert Kian Bakhtiari calls the "cute economy." In other words, the growing consumer appetite for cute collectible products. In Starbucks' case, Bakhtiari said the company was able to amplify the appeal by limiting the number of original Bearistas available for purchase. "What Starbucks did was they created this feeling of scarcity where it became more popular as it became harder to get," said Bakhtiari, founder of The People, a consultancy specializing in Gen Z and Gen Alpha consumers. Trying to create and capture viral moments has been part of Niccol's playbook, as we reported earlier this month, citing the company's Unicorn Frappuccino promotion at the Coachella music festival in April. "We're investing in the places where we believe we can drive transactions, drive the brand, build that loyalty and love, and make sure people understand what Starbucks stands for," the CEO said on the company's most recent earnings call back in late July. Bottom line Jim Cramer believes Starbucks has plenty more room to run as its turnaround continues. "This company doesn't build data centers, and it doesn't need its multiple to expand," he added. "It can just blow out the numbers and send its stock higher all by itself." Starbucks currently trades at about 32 times forward earnings per share estimates. The overall market, measured by the S & P 500, trades at a lower 19 times. The Club has a hold-equivalent 2 rating and a $120 price target. Jim has expressed recently that the stock might be one to buy soon. Again, coming off a strong June quarter and a full-year guidance boost, Starbucks reports its September quarter on Thursday evening. That is the company's fiscal 2026 fourth quarter. A first look at fiscal 2027 will be front and center on the post-earnings conference call. We're going to have to wait until the new year to see the impact of this year's Bearista promotion. That is when the December quarter, or fiscal Q1, is expected to be released. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long SBUX. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. 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