82% disapprove of Trump. So why are fewer Indian Americans identifying as Democrats?

At an Indian restaurant in Irving, near Dallas, Democratic US Senate candidate James Talarico tried his hand at making a masala dosa, spreading batter on a hot pan and filling it with spiced potatoes. In Connecticut, Governor Ned Lamont joined Diwali celebrations, while Republican Congressman John James visited a Swaminarayan temple in Michigan. From dosas to Diwali and temple visits, politicians from both parties are making symbolic overtures to Indian-American voters ahead of the November 3 midterms. But the community’s political allegiances are not as straightforward as those campaign gestures might suggest. At the national level, Republicans are fighting hard to retain control of both chambers of Congress. And the odds, at least in prediction markets, are not in their favour. As of October 30, betting website Kalshi gave Democrats a 92% chance of taking control of the House of Representatives and a 69% chance of winning the Senate. Polymarket's corresponding figures were 94% and 72%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on October 26 also found Democrats leading Republicans 47% to 36% among registered voters. Losing control of either chamber, or in the worst case both, could severely hamper US President Donald Trump's legislative agenda in the final two years of his presidency. So the stakes couldn't be higher. With the Trump administration pursuing what many see as anti-immigration policies, the stakes are also fairly high for the 5.2 million people of Indian origin living in the US. However, there is an interesting paradox between their voting patterns and declared political affiliations. While most are strongly anti-Trump, many don't identify as Democrats. The party's perceived leftward tilt appears to be one source of discomfort among some Indian-Americans. An AP-NORC and AAPI Data survey released on October 19 found that 82% of Indian-American respondents disapprove of Trump's job performance. Yet four in ten held an unfavourable opinion of the Democrats. A separate series of surveys by the Carnegie Endowment earlier in the year suggests that fewer Indian-Americans identify as Democrats than they did six years ago, while more describe themselves as independents. Trump gets thumbs down Together, the surveys challenge the idea of Indian-Americans as a politically uniform community. They reveal differences across age, education, income and other factors that shape political affiliation. A clear Democratic lead The AP-NORC/AAPI Data survey, conducted from September 8 to 15, found Trump's handling of the economy similarly unpopular: 81% disapproved and 18% approved. On immigration, 70% disapproved of his performance. Almost in lockstep, the Republican Party was viewed favourably by only 19%, while 70% held an unfavourable opinion of it. Democrats were in a substantially stronger position, with 51% viewing the party favourably. That advantage also appears in surveys measuring voting intentions. The 2026 AAPI Voter Survey, conducted by AAPI Data and APIAVote between June and July, found that 66% of Indian-American registered voters preferred Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives, against 18% favouring Republicans. Democratic Senate candidates also attracted 66%, compared with 22% for Republicans. Fewer are calling themselves Democrats According to the Carnegie Endowment's 2026 Indian-American Attitudes Survey, conducted between November 2025 and January 2026, the share of Indian-American adults identifying as Democrats declined from 52% in 2020 to 48% in 2024 and 46% in 2026. Over the same period, Republican identification rose from 15% to 19%, while independent identification increased from 23% to 29%. Republicans' gains came between 2020 and 2024; between 2024 and 2026, their share of party identifiers remained unchanged at 19%. The independent share, meanwhile, rose four percentage points. The two-point dip in Democratic identification during this period is small relative to the survey's margin of error. Being independent, however, does not mean being undecided, particularly given the two-party nature of US politics. Carnegie found that the independent share dropped from 29% to 17% when respondents were offered the option of leaning towards one of the two parties. The ideological picture offers another clue. Carnegie found that 32% of Indian-Americans identified as moderates in 2026, up from 28% in 2024. The share selecting the specific label 'liberal' declined from 25% to 21%. But when those identifying as slightly liberal and extremely liberal are included, the broader liberal segment has changed little over the past six years. Rather than indicating a conservative shift, Carnegie describes the community as broadly centrist, with a left-of-centre tilt. Fewer Indian Americans identify as Dems On a scale of zero to 100, the Democratic Party's average rating in Carnegie's survey fell from 60 in 2024 to 53 in 2026. The Republican Party's rating also dropped, from 41 to 34. The decline extended to leading political figures. Kamala Harris's average rating fell from 62 to 52, while Trump's dropped from 40 to 32. Exhausted, but engaged There is another striking finding from the AAPI Voter Survey. Although 92% of Indian-American registered voters said they planned to vote in November, 66% said they always (29%) or often (37%) felt exhausted when thinking about politics. At the same time, 43% described themselves as more enthusiastic than usual about voting in the midterms, compared with 22% who were less enthusiastic, perhaps because a lot more is at stake now. Three-quarters of respondents said they had discussed politics with family or friends in the previous year. Another 25% had discussed politics or community issues through group messaging platforms such as WhatsApp, while 24% had posted about politics on social media. But direct party outreach tells a different story. Forty percent of Indian-American registered voters reported receiving no contact from the Democratic Party over the preceding year, while 56% said the same of Republicans. The Democratic drift is not uniform Carnegie's findings also challenge the idea that younger Indian-Americans are necessarily moving away from Democrats. Among respondents aged 18 to 29, Democratic identification increased from 51% in 2024 to 56% in 2026. Among those aged 50 and above, however, it declined from 47% to 39%. Education produced another divide. Democratic identification among respondents without a college degree fell from 48% to 35%, while remaining broadly unchanged among college graduates, at 49%. Income revealed a similar split. Among Indian-Americans in households earning between $50,000 and $99,999 annually, Democratic identification declined from 54% to 44%. Among those in households earning at least $100,000, it increased from 46% to 51%. Gender differences were also visible. Democratic identification among men fell from 46% to 40%, while among women it rose slightly, from 50% to 52%. So older Indian-Americans appear to be moving away from identifying as card-carrying Democrats, although the trend among the well-off is different. Economy remains the big issue In the September AP-NORC/AAPI Data poll, 87% of Indian-American respondents identified the economy as one of the most important election issues. Cost of living followed at 84%, while 76% said the same of healthcare. Despite weaker party identification, Democrats enjoyed sizeable advantages on these issues. Fifty-three percent trusted Democrats more to handle the economy, compared with 12% who trusted Republicans. On the cost of living, the corresponding figures were 52% and 8%. On healthcare, Democrats held an even larger advantage, with 60% trusting them more, against just 6% for Republicans. But these preferences did not amount to universal confidence in the party. On the economy, 20% trusted neither party. On the cost of living, the proportion was 25%. Economy to healthcare: Democrats enjoy a clear lead Democrats also had an advantage on immigration in the September survey, with 50% trusting them more, against 18% who preferred Republicans. On crime, however, the numerical gap was narrower: 29% trusted Democrats more and 19% Republicans, while 28% trusted neither. India ties not a major concern Inflation and prices were the single most important policy issue for 21% of respondents in Carnegie's survey, followed by jobs and the economy at 17%. Healthcare ranked next at 13%, followed by immigration at 11%. Only 2% named US–India relations as their top concern. That is perhaps along expected lines, though many in India probably view Indian-Americans' political behaviour through the prism of the India–US bilateral relationship. For most desis living in the US, it is not the top concern. The finding does not mean that Indian-Americans are indifferent to relations between Washington and New Delhi. It means that domestic issues, particularly economic concerns, matter more when respondents are asked to identify their single most important policy priority. Is the Democratic Party's leftward tilt a problem? Carnegie asked respondents who did not identify as Democrats to rank their top two objections to the party. The most frequently cited reason, at 19%, was the perception that Democrats were too influenced by their left wing. Concerns about the party's approach to illegal immigration and disagreements with its economic policies followed at 17% each. Another 16% cited perceptions that Democrats were too soft on crime, while an equal share objected to what they considered excessive emphasis on identity politics. These issues overlap with broader conservative criticism of what is often called liberal or 'woke' politics. The findings suggest that the Democratic Party's perceived leftward tilt makes it harder for some Indian-Americans to identify with the party. But there is another side to this argument. The same Carnegie survey found that 68% of Indian-Americans who were familiar with Zohran Mamdani were enthusiastic about his election as New York City mayor, while 22% were unenthusiastic. Among those enthusiastic about his victory, 44% cited the expectation that he would govern as a liberal or progressive. Among those unenthusiastic, 36% said he was too liberal or progressive. Even among Indian-Americans identifying as Republicans, enthusiasm and opposition to Mamdani's victory were almost evenly divided, at 44% and 45%, respectively. That makes the political picture more complicated. Some Indian-Americans regard the Democratic Party as too influenced by its left wing, while others welcome the rise of progressive politicians such as Mamdani. The question beyond November 3 There are important limitations to these findings. The relatively small ethnic subgroups surveyed carry greater statistical uncertainty than the surveys' overall samples. Carnegie's historical survey waves also involved different respondents and changes in sampling methods, so the reported shifts do not establish that individual voters have switched party allegiance. What the surveys do show is a distinction between candidate preference and party identity. Democratic candidates continue to enjoy a large advantage. Trump's job performance is viewed negatively by a substantial majority. Beyond the midterms, the challenge for Democrats will be to sustain their electoral support among Indian-Americans while addressing the concerns of those who no longer identify strongly with the party. Attention will eventually turn to the nomination contests ahead of the 2028 presidential election. The continuing influence of the MAGA movement within the Republican Party, and the ideological direction of the Democrats, will be among the factors shaping the political choices facing Indian-Americans. For now, though, the polling suggests that many desis would like to give Trump the electoral blues.