Bowl, CFP projections: How more top-25 losses shifted postseason picture

Things got spooky in Week 9 as we saw another overtime victory from the reigning national champions, plus more upsets ... three of which saw ranked Big Ten teams fall. Similar to Week 8, we saw five ranked teams fall to unranked opponents Saturday. Unranked Syracuse and Oregon pulled off big conference wins at home, and it was a big day for the state of Iowa as Iowa State and Iowa earned wins over No. 24 Oklahoma State and No. 25 Wisconsin. To cap it off, Lincoln Riley and the USC Trojans stunned No. 2 Ohio State at home as Riley earned his first AP top-five win as USC's coach. Following all that, we take a look at how the postseason picture shifted after Week 9. New to the 2026 season, the Power 4 conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP along with the highest-ranked Group of 6 team regardless of whether it is a league champ. The remaining slots in the 12-team field will go to the next seven highest-ranked teams. Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the field if it is among the top 12 teams. The four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds 5 through 8. The festivities of bowl season kick off with the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. 12 and wrap up with the CFP National Championship at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Jan. 25. ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach will make their predictions for all the postseason matchups every week of the season until the actual matchups are set Dec. 6. All times Eastern Jump to: First-round games | Quarterfinals Semis, title game | Bowl season College Football Playoff First-round games (at campus sites) Friday, Dec. 18 8 p.m., ESPN Saturday, Dec. 19 Noon, ABC/ESPN 3:30 p.m., TNT 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 BYU Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Kentucky Bonagura: No. 11 Ohio State at No. 6 Notre Dame Schlabach: No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Notre Dame Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Indiana Schlabach: No. 10 Wake Forest at No. 7 BYU Bonagura: No. 9 Wake Forest at No. 8 Kentucky Schlabach: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Texas CFP quarterfinals Wednesday, Dec. 30 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 1 Miami Schlabach: No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 4 Utah Friday, Jan. 1 Time slots for quarterfinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl to be determined on Selection Day (Dec. 6) Quarterfinals Game 2 Noon, TNT Bonagura: No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 2 Utah Schlabach: No. 8 Texas vs. No. 1 Miami Quarterfinals Game 3 4 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 UCLA Schlabach: No. 7 BYU vs. No. 2 Georgia Quarterfinals Game 4 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 5 BYU vs. No. 4 Georgia Schlabach: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 UCLA CFP semifinals, national championship game Thursday, Jan. 14 Capital One Orange Bowl Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida) 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Miami Schlabach: No. 4 Utah vs. No. 1 Miami Friday, Jan. 15 Allstate Sugar Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 3 UCLA vs. No. 2 Utah Schlabach: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia Monday, Jan. 25 CFP National Championship Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 2 Utah vs. No. 1 Miami Schlabach: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 1 Miami Bowl season schedule Saturday, Dec. 12 Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) Noon, ABC Bonagura: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State Schlabach: South Carolina State vs. Alabama A&M Tuesday, Dec. 15 IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Miami (Ohio) Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Louisiana Frisco Football Classic The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Illinois vs. Louisiana Schlabach: Tulane vs. Georgia Southern Wednesday, Dec. 16 TransPerfect San Juan Bowl Hiram Bithorn Stadium (San Juan, Puerto Rico) 7:30 p.m. ET, TBD Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Marshall Schlabach: Boston College vs. Appalachian State Friday, Dec. 18 Boca Raton Bowl Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida) 11 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Liberty vs. Tulsa Schlabach: Memphis vs. Western Michigan Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Auburn vs. South Florida Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Minnesota Monday, Dec. 21 Myrtle Beach Bowl Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina) 11 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Georgia Southern Schlabach: UMass vs. Marshall Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. UNLV Schlabach: Toledo vs. North Dakota State Tuesday, Dec. 22 Puerto Rico Bowl Juan Ramón Loubriel Stadium (Bayamón, Puerto Rico) 1:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UMass vs. West Virginia Schlabach: FAU vs. Delaware StaffDNA Cure Bowl Acrisure Bounce House (Orlando, Florida) 5 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Ohio vs. James Madison Schlabach: Louisiana Tech vs. Middle Tennessee Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana) 8:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UConn vs. Kansas State Schlabach: Washington vs. West Virginia Wednesday, Dec. 23 New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Appalachian State Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. James Madison Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UCF vs. North Texas Schlabach: UCF vs. Army San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego) 7:30 p.m., The CW Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Washington Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Arizona State Frisco Bowl The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Memphis Schlabach: Liberty vs. New Mexico Thursday, Dec. 24 Isleta New Mexico Bowl University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Wyoming vs. UTSA Schlabach: UNLV vs. Tulsa Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu) 7 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Texas State vs. North Dakota State Schlabach: Air Force vs. Texas State Saturday, Dec. 26 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium (New York) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Duke vs. Nebraska Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern Wasabi Fenway Bowl Fenway Park (Boston) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: North Carolina vs. East Carolina Schlabach: NC State vs. South Florida Duke's Mayo Bowl Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Clemson vs. Penn State Schlabach: Duke vs. Nebraska 68 Ventures Bowl Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Air Force Schlabach: UAB vs. Miami (Ohio) Cactus Bowl Mountain America Stadium (Tempe, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cincinnati Schlabach: Michigan vs. Cincinnati Monday, Dec. 28 Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Virginia vs. Army Schlabach: North Carolina vs. UTSA Trust & Will Holiday Bowl Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego) 5 p.m., The CW Bonagura: Louisville vs. Oregon State Schlabach: Louisville vs. Oregon Tuesday, Dec. 29 JLab Birmingham Bowl Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Tulane Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. Illinois Pop-Tarts Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: SMU vs. Houston Schlabach: SMU vs. Houston Valero Alamo Bowl Alamodome (San Antonio) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Oregon Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. USC Wednesday, Dec. 30 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida) 11:30 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Florida Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee) 3 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina Thursday, Dec. 31 ReliaQuest Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Texas Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Ole Miss Old El Paso Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas) 2 p.m., CBS Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Arizona Schlabach: Clemson vs. Oregon State Las Vegas Bowl Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 3:45 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: USC vs. Oklahoma Schlabach: Arizona vs. Missouri Kinder's Texas Bowl Reliant Stadium (Houston) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee Schlabach: Baylor vs. Florida Saturday, Jan. 2 Citrus Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Iowa vs. LSU Schlabach: Iowa vs. LSU SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Texas A&M vs. Arkansas State Schlabach: Penn State vs. North Texas Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Casino Del Sol Stadium (Tucson, Arizona) 4:30 p.m., The CW Bonagura: Toledo vs. New Mexico Schlabach: Ohio vs. Wyoming AutoZone Liberty Bowl Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee) 7:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Auburn