Fire losses to U.S. buildings could nearly triple by 2060 without new protections

Fire losses to U.S. buildings could nearly triple by 2060 without new protections Swati Mestri Scientific Editor Andrew Zinin Chief Editor Fires in the U.S. are getting faster, larger and more dangerous, but people continue to develop and move into fire-prone regions. New research from the University of Colorado Boulder's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) shows that if we don't act on climate change, which fuels fires, manage vegetation or transform how we build and adapt to fire, the risk to structures in the U.S. will almost triple by midcentury. The work, published in Nature Communications, highlights critical socioeconomic disparities—in the western U.S., some of the highest projected fire risk overlaps with existing poverty and housing burdens. "This is a call for action," said Virginia Iglesias, CIRES Earth Lab director and lead author of the paper. "If we do nothing about climate change, if we don't change where and how we build, if we don't involve every member of the community in targeted mitigation and preparedness, then we are going to see our fire risk rise significantly." Iglesias and her colleagues used historical data about burned area, development patterns and fire impacts to reconstruct fire risk to structures from 1945 to 2023. They then used a model, which combined their reconstruction with weather, climate and housing-density data, to calculate the fire risk to structures through 2060. The team found that under business-as-usual conditions with moderate climate change mitigation and no new fire adaptations, structural losses from fires will nearly triple in the U.S. by 2060. They estimate up to 449,100 buildings could be destroyed or damaged. "We need to think about new development—where we live and build," Iglesias said. "But we also have to think about the legacy of past development and the risks already embedded in communities that cannot simply be relocated." Their results reveal important regional differences. The team found that while the western U.S. will be the epicenter of structural losses from fire, the increase in risk will be largest in the central U.S., where fire activity is on the rise in grasslands and prairies. They also show that even though the increase in risk is smaller in the eastern U.S., fires there are just as destructive as fires in the western part of the country. "Fires don't discriminate—if there's a fire near a flammable structure, its chances of burning are similar regardless of its location in the country," Iglesias said. "But the East hasn't experienced many destructive fires, so they are not as well prepared." While the fire risk to structures will increase across the country, the team found the highest levels of fire risk in 2051–2060 will be concentrated in communities that are socioeconomically vulnerable. In the western U.S., 30% of census tracts projected to see the greatest increase in risk experience poverty and a disproportionately high housing burden. In July 2025, Colorado adopted a new wildfire resiliency code, which aims to reduce the risk of fire to life and property, but code changes alone are not enough. "This is why social vulnerability has to be part of fire risk preparedness and mitigation," Iglesias said. "Risk isn't just about where fires occur; it's also about whether communities have the resources and capacity to reduce impacts and recover." Iglesias and her co-authors hope their work will not only inform but also support the implementation of these kinds of policy changes and show people why acting now to protect their homes and communities is so important. "Action and mitigation require investment," Iglesias said. "This kind of science helps target those investments so policies and building codes are applied where they will have the greatest impact." Publication details Nature Communications (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-78904-z Journal information: Nature Communications Provided by University of Colorado at Boulder