Sport
Asking and answering questions about the new-look men's March Madness
Key Points
With a new season of college basketball, the inevitable questions arrive, both the obvious and the arcane. At the top of the list has to be the expansion of the NCAA tournament field. When the news was first announced in May, little was known about how adding eight more teams impact logistics.
With a new season of college basketball, the inevitable questions arrive, both the obvious and the arcane. At the top of the list has to be the expansion of the NCAA tournament field. When the news was first announced in May, little was known about how adding eight more teams impact logistics.
But after running projections all summer, we think we have an idea. So, here are some questions that might or might not have been on your mind entering today.
For anything else that comes up in the 19 weeks between now and Selection Sunday? Well, your intrepid ESPN Bracketology crew will do its best to answer them.
1. What does the expanded tournament now look like?
The 68 teams we've come to expect each year welcome eight more schools to the field. The new 76-team bracket will continue to have 32 automatic qualifiers, but the at-large entries increase to 44 teams. The composition of the eight added schools -- high major vs. major vs. mid-major -- will be a dominant storyline. This is also the largest expansion of the tournament since the 64-team field was introduced in 1985, so expect some unintended consequences along the way.
2. How will it work (and what about my bracket)?
No worries there. Whether you ascribe positive, negative or neutral motivation for expansion, the powers that be seem to have figured it out. The new Opening Round -- which replaces the First Four -- will bring us four tripleheaders over two days at a pair of sites (Dayton and Wichita), with the end result whittling the field to the optimal 64-team configuration by Thursday. Casual bracket players who drive massive interest in the tourney's early rounds will have more teams to choose from, but essentially the same competition.
3. Do I have to take Tuesday and Wednesday off?
That's between you and your boss. Simultaneous tripleheaders will be scheduled in Dayton and Wichita on both days, starting in the late afternoon (perhaps as early as 3:30 p.m. ET, I'm told). Expect staggered tip times for each, same as in the regular bracket, to maximize end-of-game windows and our ability to see as many as possible. And there should be plenty of end-game drama, as all 12 of the new Opening Round games will match equal seeds. Among the at-large teams, we're looking at primarily 11 vs. 11 matchups, along with a couple 10 vs. 10 and/or 12 vs. 12 pairings. With the automatic qualifiers, the entire 16-seed line and half of the 15-seeds will come from Opening Round survivors.
4. What else do we need to know?
My guess is most folks, coaches included, don't yet realize that nearly one-third of the field (24 teams) will be playing in the Opening Round. For a handful of those teams, that will take place less than 48 hours after the bracket is released. I can't wait to see how the coaching curmudgeons react to that travel and game turnaround, with the winners repeating the cycle for the main bracket. I suspect we'll see a majority of AQ pairings in the Tuesday tripleheaders, as those schools will be better able to anticipate their journey.
Also lost in the shuffle is a bracket downgrade for most of the popular double-digit-seed upset picks. With eight new at-larges stuffed onto the seed list ahead of them, the best one-bid league champions will be seeded one or two seed lines worse in a 76-team field. That's another shot across the bow for Cinderella, I'm afraid.
5. So, are upsets gone forever?
All is not lost, upset lovers. A bunch of 3- and 4-seeds are going to play much better first-round opponents. The 13- and 14-seeds they used to play will be the 11- and 12-seeds of old, so it's possible there will be fewer, but bigger shockers throughout the round of 64 and into the round of 32.
Another unknown is the value of momentum for Opening Round survivors, especially the six at-large winners, who figure to be very live underdogs in their subsequent 7 vs. 10, 6 vs. 11 and 5 vs. 12 first-round matchups. It will be a different opening weekend, to be sure, but not necessarily worse.
6. Who will secure the four No. 1 seeds on Selection Sunday?
Our season-opening projection lists Florida, Duke, Illinois and Arizona on the top line. History suggests we'll only be half right, so I'm nominating Illinois and Arizona as most likely to deceive. The reasons are that the Big Ten (Illinois) and the Big 12 (Arizona) have more contenders to chase the respective favorites. The Illini might also be without star David Mirkovic for a good portion of the early season, with a lesser NCAA seed as a result.
7. Are there practical considerations already determining the 2027 bracket?
Despite the above, I've picked Illinois to win it all, and one reason is favorable geography. The Illini figure to open the tournament in Louisville, play in the Midwest Regional in Kansas City, and then take a third bus ride to Detroit for the Final Four. Louisville and Kansas City are also Friday-Sunday sites, offering both easy travel and extra rest.
Elsewhere, it's worth noting St. John's cannot play in the East Regional (which it hosts at Madison Square Garden). In the first and second rounds, Louisville and Creighton also cannot play in their home arenas. The same restriction does not apply to Dayton or Wichita State, however, should they be bracketed in Opening Round games.
Finally, a few schools' fans should be comfortable booking Opening Round hotels: Duke and Florida (Charlotte), Arizona (Sacramento), UConn (Pittsburgh), Houston and Texas (Fort Worth) and Gonzaga (Spokane).
These and other future travel tips are "no extra charge" items for long-term Bracketology readers.
8. If ESPN put me in charge of programming, what would the 'College GameDay' schedule look like?
With the caveat that this is not actually the "College GameDay" schedule.
Jan. 23: Michigan State at Ohio State
Michigan broke the Big Ten's title drought a year ago, but Michigan State is one of the teams capable of making it two in a row.
The Gators are the preseason No. 1 and the Vols have another shot at reaching the school's first Final Four.
This would be a total blast at underrated John Paul Jones Arena, as well as a nice change of pace from the typical Duke-Carolina double dip.
Feb. 13: Texas at Vanderbilt
Rece and the Guys should have a perpendicular desk at Memorial Gym. The Dores deserve the love for being good.
The best of the past, and the best of the present of the Big 12.
Feb. 27: Saint Mary's at Santa Clara
The winner here likely takes Gonzaga's spot at the top of the West Coast Conference (and we always throw a mid-major on the list).
March 6: Duke at North Carolina
Can't skip both Duke-Carolina encounters.