Trump-linked prediction market hits highest odds yet for Democratic midterm sweep

Trump-linked prediction market hits highest odds yet for Democratic midterm sweep Chances of a Republican sweep stand at 6.5 percent, Kalshi bettors say - Bookmark - CommentsGo to comments Become an Independent member to bookmark this article Already a member? Log in A prediction market, linked to the president’s son Donald Trump Jr., has given the highest odds yet for a Democratic sweep in the midterm elections. On Election Day, Kalshi is predicting a 76 percent chance of the Democratic Party taking control of the U.S. House and Senate, at time of publication. The odds of Democrats winning both chambers of Congress were at 28 percent in January. Kalshi bettors also said Tuesday there is a 20 percent chance that Democrats take control of the House while the GOP retains control of the Senate. The chances of a Republican sweep stand at 6.5 percent, Kalshi bettors say. Polymarket, another online prediction platform, also offered little hope for the GOP. On Tuesday, its bettors say that the Democrats have a 77 percent chance of taking the Senate while Republicans have a 23 percent chance of retaining it. Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as an adviser last year and was given shares in the company worth around $300,000, according to The Financial Times. The president’s eldest son joined Polymarket's advisory board in August 2025 and has an undisclosed investment in the company, via his 1789 Capital venture capital fund, according to a press release. Millions of Americans are heading to the polls Tuesday to vote in elections across the country. While President Trump is not on the ballot, he has encouraged supporters to “pretend” like he is. Numerous polls have predicted grim outcomes for Republican candidates amid public anger over the soaring cost-of-living and the president’s unpopular war in Iran. In the Senate, the GOP holds a slim majority of 53 seats to 47 held by Democrats and two independents who usually vote with the party. There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs in the midterms. Democratic candidates have surged in polls, even in deep-red states. In Texas, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is neck-and-neck with Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Democrats and Republicans are also battling for control of the House of Representatives, where the GOP currently holds a majority. Republicans hold 219 seats compared to the Democrats’ 214. A total of 218 seats is needed for a majority in the House. A number of polls have shown that the Democrats have a strong chance of winning a majority in the House. A POLITICO Poll, conducted by PF Global, says that around 9 percent of Trump’s 2024 voters plan to cast their ballot for a Democrat in the midterms. Join our commenting forum Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies Comments