The Zangezur Corridor: Regional peace and global connectivity

The Zangezur Corridor is a test case for the region, writes Dr Matin Mammadli of the Centre for the Analysis of International Relations in Baku in an article for Euronews. It could link Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan, strengthen trade between Europe and Asia, and lay an economic foundation for peace. In my view, the Zangezur Corridor should be understood as much more than a direct land connection between mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Its importance lies in how a national transport priority could reshape economic relations across the South Caucasus. Paragraph 9 of the 10 November 2020 Trilateral Statement envisaged the restoration of regional economic and transport links, including connections between Azerbaijan’s western districts and Nakhchivan. Azerbaijan has since argued that restored links can give peace an economic foundation. Regional connectivity, peace and normalisation This position is backed by tangible preparations. The Horadiz-Aghband railway and road projects, alongside efforts to improve onward links to Nakhchivan, show that Baku has treated connectivity as an investment priority rather than a diplomatic slogan. Such advance investment can turn a political opening into a functioning route. The Washington understandings of 8 August 2025, reached with the participation of President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, gave the idea a new impetus. The Joint Declaration supported regional connectivity and the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP); the initialled peace agreement reinforced the economic logic of normalisation. The wider geoeconomic opportunity For Azerbaijan, the most immediate benefit is a direct connection with Nakhchivan and, through Türkiye, wider markets. Yet I would place equal weight on the strategic choice the corridor could create. Alternative freight routes, flexible logistics and new service hubs can strengthen Azerbaijan’s role as a Caspian hub. The Baku International Sea Trade Port, Baku–Tbilisi-Kars railway and domestic trunk routes already provide a base. Zangezur could complement these assets, helping Azerbaijan connect networks rather than merely accommodate traffic passing through them.The larger context is the Middle Corridor linking China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Europe. Its attraction is diversification: businesses and governments need more than one viable connection between Asian and European markets. World Bank estimates have suggested that coordinated investment and reform could triple Middle Corridor freight volumes by 2030 while halving transit times. Those figures concern the wider corridor, not Zangezur alone. Nevertheless, I believe the proposed route could reinforce that broader network by adding capacity and options, provided the necessary operational coordination is achieved. EU: Resilient supply chains and stronger links with Central Asia Europe has a clear stake in this development. The EU has sought more resilient supply chains and stronger links with Central Asia; in 2024, it and its partners announced commitments to mobilise €10 billion for Trans-Caspian connectivity. In January 2026, the EU and Azerbaijan also placed cooperation on a feasibility study for the Nakhchivan railway on their agenda. These steps do not guarantee the success of TRIPP, but they suggest that the project fits wider European interests. Over time, energy transmission, digital connectivity and investment could prove as important as freight traffic. The gains need not be limited to Azerbaijan. Armenia could become more integrated into international transport networks, Türkiye could expand overland links with Azerbaijan and Central Asia, and Central Asian exporters could gain further route choices. China, too, would have another potential connection to European markets. I see this convergence as the project's greatest geoeconomic promise. It could make cooperation commercially sensible even where political trust remains fragile. Peace, regional autonomy and the real test ahead Its political importance is inseparable from its economic logic. Reopening long-closed links between Azerbaijan and Armenia could create everyday incentives for stability through trade, transit and services. Such ties cannot by themselves resolve all political differences, but they can make a peaceful relationship more useful and more durable. It is particularly significant for Azerbaijan that an agenda it pursued after the war is now taking shape within a broader international partnership. Implementation would also require regular cooperation on customs, transit rules, technical standards and infrastructure management. I see these practical obligations as a potential turning point for the South Caucasus. Rather than remaining only a theatre of geopolitical rivalry, the region could increasingly function as a space where neighbours have a shared interest in keeping connections open. At the same time, more routes can expand strategic autonomy by reducing dependence on any single transport option or external market. Give peace a stronger economic foundation Closer links among Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Central Asian states could advance economic integration across the Turkic world, while growing European and Chinese interest and active US involvement underline the South Caucasus’s international significance. Yet opportunity is not achievement. Commercial viability, transparent governance, effective border procedures and consistent political commitment will determine whether TRIPP fulfils its potential. Ultimately, I see the Zangezur Corridor as a test of whether the region can convert a post-war connectivity agenda into lasting mutual benefit. If implemented effectively, it can connect Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan, strengthen the Middle Corridor, widen exchanges between Europe and Asia and lend peace a firmer economic basis. Its significance would then extend well beyond regional transport: from a geopolitical question, Zangezur could become a genuinely transregional geoeconomic opportunity. Dr. Matin Mammadli, Head of Department, Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations and Multiculturalism