These states can expect a white Christmas, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac

These states can expect a white Christmas, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac At least an inch of snow on the ground is what counts, forecasters say - Bookmark - CommentsGo to comments Become an Independent member to bookmark this article Already a member? Log in People dreaming of a white Christmas may be pleasantly surprised this year - assuming they’re in one of 16 states. States from Washington to Maine have a chance for more than an inch of snow on the ground, according to a new outlook from the Old Farmer's Almanac. That’s the amount that counts as a white Christmas, according to federal forecasters. But the outlook varies considerably across the U.S. - and even in neighboring regions, the Almanac says. “For example, the Northeast is forecast to have a white Christmas, while the Atlantic Corridor is not,” executive digital editor Catherine Boeckman wrote. The full list of states includes Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, Washington and Wyoming. More northern states have the highest probability of a white Christmas, based on 1991-2020 climate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. However that data also shows the historical odds for much of the country are less than 50 percent. The outlook follows the Almanac’s winter forecast, published in August. The forecast calls for a snowier winter in parts of the West and Alaska, the Northeast and the Appalachians. Temperatures are expected to be mostly mild, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be winter weather. There could be a colder stretch from central New England through the Appalachians and Ohio Valley. “And remember: ‘Above normal’ is relative. While it won’t be as cold as usual, it’s still winter!” Boeckman said. Boasting an 80 percent accuracy rate, the Almanac says its predictions are based on a blend of solar science, climatology, and meteorology, incorporating solar activity, historical weather patterns and climate data. Illinois researchers have previously said the accuracy of the Almanac forecasts is just above 50 percent, and how far meteorologists can forecast in the age of AI remains a moving target. Still, the Almanac’s forecast has similarities to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's December 2026-February 2027 outlook. The federal outlook forecasts above-normal to near-normal temperatures in most of the U.S. Those temperatures are partially driven by climate change and a historic El Niño climate pattern, which is anticipated to make northern states warmer this winter and limit precipitation. During the last super El Niño Christmas in 2015, 37 percent of the continental U.S. had snow on the ground, Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist at weather.com, noted on Wednesday. Meteorologists are also monitoring strange behavior from the polar vortex - a band of wind that can send cold air into the U.S. during the winter. The vortex’s behavior could change weather patterns, making cold air more likely, NOAA warned this week. Join our commenting forum Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies Comments