Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda doesn’t think a conventional Russian attack on NATO territory is likely for now, but expects Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s provocations to continue.
“I don’t think Russia is currently ready for large-scale operations,” he said in an interview with WELT, which, like POLITICO, is part of the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network. “Russia’s resources are tied up on the Ukrainian battlefield, and Russia is not succeeding there.”
“But Putin is testing us and moving ever closer to Article 5, NATO’s collective defense commitment,” he added.
According to Nausėda, the Russians want to observe how the alliance responds to so-called hybrid attacks, which are suspected to have included drone incursions, cyberattacks and arson, among other things.
The hybrid war will therefore continue, not only on NATO’s eastern flank but also in Germany, Denmark and other countries, Nausėda explained. Russia is testing “how determined we are and whether we will respond collectively when certain red lines are crossed,” the Lithuanian president said.
Nausėda, an economist who has led Lithuania since 2019, also sees no serious willingness in Moscow to enter into negotiations to end its war against Ukraine before next spring.
Moscow will use the winter months to keep up the pressure on Ukraine through air strikes on cities, he said. “The Russians will only pretend to negotiate. I don’t trust them.”
Putin will make demands that are unacceptable to Ukraine from the outset, he added. “If Ukraine gets through this winter, and I am convinced that it will, the chances of serious talks will improve in 2027. I don’t expect them any earlier.”
Joe Stanley-Smith contributed to this report.
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