Bowl, CFP projections: How the postseason picture changed after a wild Week 10

It was a week circled on every college football fan's calendar, and Week 10 did not disappoint. We saw seven ranked matchups play out, six top-15 teams lose and one upset. In Week 10, No. 1 Miami lost to No. 11 Notre Dame in a rematch that had major College Football Playoff implications last season and figures to this year as well. No. 3 Utah and No. 8 UCLA remained undefeated after a big Holy War rivalry game victory for the Utes against No. 9 BYU, and the Bruins' conference win on the road against Minnesota. No. 12 Ohio State lost for the second straight week against a conference opponent as the Buckeyes fell to 6-3 with a home loss to Oregon, and No. 5 Alabama gained a big conference road win against No. 14 LSU. Following all that, we take a look at how the postseason picture shifted after Week 10. New to the 2026 season, the Power 4 conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP along with the highest-ranked Group of 6 team regardless of whether it is a league champ. The remaining slots in the 12-team field will go to the next seven highest-ranked teams. Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the field if it is among the top 12 teams. The four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds 5 through 8. The festivities of bowl season kick off with the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. 12 and wrap up with the CFP National Championship game at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Jan. 25. ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach will make their predictions for all the postseason matchups every week of the season until the actual matchups are set Dec. 6. All times Eastern Jump to: First-round games | Quarterfinals Semis, title game | Bowl season College Football Playoff First-round games (at campus sites) Friday, Dec. 18 8 p.m., ESPN Saturday, Dec. 19 Noon, ABC/ESPN 3:30 p.m., TNT 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas Bonagura: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 UCLA Schlabach: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami Bonagura: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Notre Dame Schlabach: No. 10 Wake Forest at No. 7 Tennessee Bonagura: No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Miami Schlabach: No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Alabama CFP quarterfinals Wednesday, Dec. 30 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Alabama Schlabach: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 UCLA Friday, Jan. 1 Time slots for quarterfinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl to be determined on Selection Day (Dec. 6) Quarterfinals Game 2 Noon, TNT Bonagura: No. 8 Miami vs. No. 1 Georgia Schlabach: No. 9 Indiana vs. No. 1 Georgia Quarterfinals Game 3 4 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Utah Schlabach: No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Utah Quarterfinals Game 4 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 6 UCLA vs. No. 3 Indiana Schlabach: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Notre Dame CFP semifinals, national championship game Thursday, Jan. 14 Capital One Orange Bowl Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida) 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Georgia Schlabach: No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Utah Friday, Jan. 15 Allstate Sugar Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Utah Schlabach: No. 5 Miami vs. No. 1 Georgia Monday, Jan. 25 CFP National Championship Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 2 Utah vs. No. 1 Georgia Schlabach: No. 2 Utah vs. No. 1 Georgia Bowl season schedule Saturday, Dec. 12 Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) Noon, ABC Bonagura: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State Schlabach: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State Tuesday, Dec. 15 IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Miami (Ohio) Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Louisiana Frisco Football Classic The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Illinois vs. Louisiana Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Texas State Wednesday, Dec. 16 TransPerfect San Juan Bowl Hiram Bithorn Stadium (San Juan, Puerto Rico) 7:30 p.m. ET, TBD Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Marshall Schlabach: FIU vs. Appalachian State Friday, Dec. 18 Boca Raton Bowl Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida) 11 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Liberty vs. Tulsa Schlabach: James Madison vs. Western Michigan Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Auburn vs. South Florida Schlabach: Florida vs. South Florida Monday, Dec. 21 Myrtle Beach Bowl Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina) 11 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Georgia Southern Schlabach: UMass vs. Marshall Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. UNLV Schlabach: Toledo vs. North Dakota State Tuesday, Dec. 22 Puerto Rico Bowl Juan Ramón Loubriel Stadium (Bayamón, Puerto Rico) 1:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UMass vs. Georgia State Schlabach: FAU vs. Delaware StaffDNA Cure Bowl Acrisure Bounce House (Orlando, Florida) 5 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Ohio vs. James Madison Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Middle Tennessee Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana) 8:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Washington vs. West Virginia Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Oregon State Wednesday, Dec. 23 New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Appalachian State Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana Tech Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Middle Tennessee vs. Central Michigan Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Nebraska San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego) 7:30 p.m., The CW Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Arizona State Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Arizona State Frisco Bowl The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Memphis Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico Thursday, Dec. 24 Isleta New Mexico Bowl University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Wyoming vs. UTSA Schlabach: UNLV vs. Tulsa Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu) 7 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Texas State vs. North Dakota State Schlabach: Air Force vs. Fresno State Saturday, Dec. 26 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium (New York) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Duke vs. Northwestern Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Illinois Wasabi Fenway Bowl Fenway Park (Boston) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: North Carolina vs. East Carolina Schlabach: Florida State vs. Memphis Duke's Mayo Bowl Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Clemson vs. Penn State Schlabach: Duke vs. Penn State 68 Ventures Bowl Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Air Force Schlabach: Georgia State vs. Miami (Ohio) Cactus Bowl Mountain America Stadium (Tempe, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cincinnati Schlabach: Central Florida vs. Northwestern Monday, Dec. 28 Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Virginia vs. Army Schlabach: North Carolina vs. UTSA Trust & Will Holiday Bowl Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego) 5 p.m., The CW Bonagura: Louisville vs. Oregon State Schlabach: Louisville vs. USC Tuesday, Dec. 29 JLab Birmingham Bowl Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Florida Atlantic Schlabach: Liberty vs. UAB Pop-Tarts Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Oklahoma State Schlabach: SMU vs. Houston Valero Alamo Bowl Alamodome (San Antonio) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Houston vs. Oregon Schlabach: BYU vs. Oregon Wednesday, Dec. 30 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida) 11:30 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: SMU vs. Florida Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. LSU Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee) 3 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Iowa vs. Kentucky Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina Thursday, Dec. 31 ReliaQuest Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Ole Miss Old El Paso Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas) 2 p.m., CBS Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Arizona Schlabach: Clemson vs. Washington Las Vegas Bowl Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 3:45 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: USC vs. Oklahoma Schlabach: Arizona vs. Missouri Kinder's Texas Bowl Reliant Stadium (Houston) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oklahoma Saturday, Jan. 2 Citrus Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Ohio State vs. LSU Schlabach: Iowa vs. Kentucky SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Florida State vs. North Texas Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Army Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Casino Del Sol Stadium (Tucson, Arizona) 4:30 p.m., The CW Bonagura: Toledo vs. New Mexico Schlabach: Ohio vs. Wyoming AutoZone Liberty Bowl Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee) 7:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: UCF vs. South Carolina Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Auburn