‘Snap, crackle and drought’: Why El Niño could change what ends up on your breakfast table

As COP31 puts food and agriculture on the table, consumers across Europe are discovering downstream effects of climate impacts in their breakfast bowl. This year’s Super El Niño was already threatening to disrupt agriculture, energy supplies and transport. Now, it is coming for Europe’s breakfast cereal. Rice Krispies and Coco Pops are facing a crunch crisis, as “changing weather” is forcing Kellanova – the UK producer of the iconic Kellogg’s cereals – to adjust their ingredients. In a statement last week, a company spokesperson admitted that the cereals would no longer be made with whole rice grains but rather corn flour and rice flour instead. The new recipe, the spokesperson added, would help the company “maintain consistent quality at a time when changing weather conditions are affecting the quality and availability of some of the rice and grains used in our cereals.” El Niño is having major downstream effects The changing weather conditions Kellogg’s refers to stem from El Niño, the natural weather phenomenon that is being turbocharged in 2026 by climate change. An El Niño event occurs when sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise to unusually high levels, disrupting weather patterns around the world in different ways. Scientists have been sounding the alarm over its potential impact for much of 2026, and so far, this El Niño – sometimes dubbed a ‘Godzilla’ or ‘Super’ El Niño – is unfolding as the strongest and warmest in recorded history. Sea temperatures have already eclipsed 3°C in parts of the Pacific and are likely to peak even higher, according to the WMO. Meanwhile, climate change has amplified the damage. Copernicus reports that 2026 is “virtually certain” to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the second calendar year to do so after 2024. That is injecting record heat and moisture into the atmosphere, fuelling drought in some parts of the world and torrential rain in others. In El Salvador, drought has left cattle starving for lack of grass. Heavy rains have battered regions further south, causing severe floods in Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Chile. And in Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s worst wildfire season since 2015 has blanketed much of the region in toxic haze. COP31 puts food security on the menu On social media, consumers have complained that their Rice Krispies now lack the signature crackle. Some have suggested that the ingredient changes have altered the quality, despite assurances from Kellogg’s that their cereal is the same as it ever was. For now, the change will only affect the UK and Europe markets, allowing consumers in the US and Canada to continue enjoying the “snap, crackle and pop” associated with Rice Krispies and the chocolatey crunch of Coco Pops. But the inconvenience of flatter Rice Krispies is only a taste of what El Niño could mean for European supermarkets outside the cereal aisle. Researchers at the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education in the Netherlands have warned that disruptions to staples such as corn and beans could put global food security at risk. Also likely to be affected are coffee, cocoa, sugar, palm oil and rice. Across South and Southeast Asia, severe water shortages and high temperatures are hitting already disrupted rice growing patterns. According to the FAO, soaring fertiliser prices caused by the war in Iran have caused farmers to cut back on rice crops this year, threatening a staple that more than half the world relies on – not just Kellogg’s. These mounting food supply pressures are on the agenda as world leaders gather for COP31. The summit opens today, 9 November, in Antalya, Türkiye, with a day dedicated to agriculture and food systems. As El Niño and climate change threaten harvests worldwide, COP31 will test if governments are prepared to put more money behind protecting food supplies, or if suddenly crunchless Rice Krispies are an early warning of worse disruptions to come.