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Marvell-Lumentum Deal Odds Near Coin Flip as AI Trade Shudders

Bloomberg Technology Monday 09 November 2026, 19:49 UTC By Yiqin Shen 1 min read
Key Points

Marvell-Lumentum Deal Odds Near Coin Flip as AI Trade Shudders Marvell Technology Inc.’s plan to double down on AI through a blockbuster $115 billion acquisition of Lumentum Holdings Inc. is getting a lukewarm early verdict from investment experts who bet on deals. The implied probability of the deal closing is hovering at only around 50%, according to several merger arbitrage specialists, reflecting skepticism that the companies will be able to pull off what would be one the biggest tech...

Marvell-Lumentum Deal Odds Near Coin Flip as AI Trade Shudders Marvell Technology Inc.’s plan to double down on AI through a blockbuster $115 billion acquisition of Lumentum Holdings Inc. is getting a lukewarm early verdict from investment experts who bet on deals. The implied probability of the deal closing is hovering at only around 50%, according to several merger arbitrage specialists, reflecting skepticism that the companies will be able to pull off what would be one the biggest tech deals of all time. A selloff in both stocks has left Lumentum shares trading at a steep discount to the value of Marvell’s all-stock offer, which itself has shrunk.
Marvell-Lumentum Deal Odds Near Coin Flip as AI Trade (ORG) Marvell Technology Inc.’s (ORG) AI (ORG) Lumentum Holdings Inc. (ORG) Lumentum (ORG) Marvell (ORG)
Originally published by Bloomberg Technology Read original →

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