Connelly previews 32 high-stakes games on a make-or-break weekend

Here's where the momentum of a college football season starts to build on itself. After a mammoth Week 10 featuring six ranked-versus-ranked games and losses for four top-10 teams, we saw a big shake-up. Now comes another one. Week 11 offers us five more ranked-versus-ranked games. No. 6 Texas and No. 12 Texas Tech are road underdogs in two of them, and No. 2 Utah is a narrow favorite in another. Meanwhile, two other ranked teams are underdogs against unranked foes, and another five are just one-score favorites. A lot of ranked teams are going to lose, in other words. For everything we thought we learned during such a narrative-heavy Week 10, half of it will be scrambled all over again by Sunday morning. We're going to have a blast. Here's everything you need to follow. All times Eastern. Make-or-break in Baton Rouge (and other SEC drama) With nine of the top 22 teams in the College Football Playoff rankings and 10 teams technically still eligible for the conference title game, the SEC still has a lot to settle. This week, LSU tries to save its season, Tennessee is only a slight road favorite in a vital game and Georgia has to avoid an upset bid from a frustrated Missouri team. No. 6 Texas at No. 21 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC) After an annoying collapse against Alabama, LSU is 6-3 and now must face two more top-10 teams in a row (Texas and Tennessee). But while SP+ says there's a 23% chance the Tigers lose both of these games, there's also a 27% chance they win both, which is the only thing that would get them back into the playoff hunt. LSU still has one of the most disruptive defenses in the country, and even with Texas' offense in a more stable spot thanks to running back Raleek Brown (290 yards from scrimmage against Ole Miss and Mizzou), the Longhorns still suffer loads of negative plays. Quarterback Arch Manning is at this point almost a secondary character in Texas' playoff push. It obviously still matters how he plays, but the Longhorns' run game and defense pulled out the Ole Miss and Missouri games, and defense could be the difference-maker again Saturday. Alabama's defense limited LSU's Dilin Jones to 3.3 yards per carry and sacked Sam Leavitt four times last week. Texas' defense is as good as Bama's against the run and much better against the pass -- and it gets star pass rusher Colin Simmons back this week. Both defenses seem to have the advantages here; whose are more significant? Current line: LSU -4 | SP+ projection: LSU by 1.9 | FPI projection: LSU by 0.9 No. 22 Missouri at No. 1 Georgia (3:30 p.m., ABC) In 2025, Gunner Stockton's two most frequent pass catchers, Zachariah Branch and Dillon Bell, averaged 10.0 yards per catch; this year's top two, Talyn Taylor and Craig Dandridge, are averaging 17.2. If you take your typical Georgia team -- strong, physical run game, excellent run defense, sure-tackling secondary -- and sprinkle in an extra handful of big-play opportunities, you end up with the best team in the country. Since their upset loss to Auburn, the Dawgs have beaten Florida and Ole Miss by a combined 54 points. The run game alone has produced more yards (524) than the defense has allowed overall (498), and Taylor added four catches for 140 yards and three scores against Ole Miss. Taylor is starting to do major damage throughout the field. Missouri wouldn't need an extreme UGA letdown to make this one interesting, though. The Tigers force lots of turnovers (maybe Georgia's lone weakness), and they have the best run defense the Dawgs have seen in terms of yards per carry. They've struggled to get both the run and the pass going at the same time on offense, but they've been good at both at times. Still, if Georgia is in top gear, nothing else matters. Current line: UGA -15.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 20.2 | FPI projection: UGA by 17.7 No. 8 Tennessee at Texas A&M (3 p.m., ESPN) In Tennessee's last two home games, the Volunteers beat Alabama and Kentucky by a combined 60-16. In their last two road games, they suffered a near disaster at Arkansas and a loss at South Carolina. The Vols have looked like national title contenders in Knoxville and like SEC afterthoughts away from home. This week they're away. Texas A&M gets its first SEC home game in six weeks. The Aggies scared South Carolina last week but, as has been customary, didn't generate enough offense. They've averaged just 12.4 PPG in five losses, and you can probably spot the primary issue here: Big plays have been nonexistent. Tennessee's defense doesn't allow many either. A&M might be able to turn this into a rock fight -- the Vols' passing game can certainly be held down -- but Tennessee might need only about 17 to 20 points to secure this one. Current line: Vols -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 9.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 3.0 Elimination Day in the Big 12 Seven teams are currently within one game of a spot in the Big 12 championship game -- 6-0 Utah, 5-1 Texas Tech and five 4-2 teams: Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston and Oklahoma State. In a happy scheduling twist, there are three games between these contenders this weekend! No. 2 Utah at No. 23 Arizona (7:30 p.m., Fox) Arizona has two losses, at BYU and Texas Tech -- after leading in the second half of both games, no less -- but the Wildcats need this one to stay in the Big 12 and CFP races. Utah's win over BYU highlighted all of the Utes' strengths and relative weaknesses: They suffered too many negative plays (nine TFLs) and gave up some explosive gains, but they won the success rate* battle and scored more touchdowns in three red zone trips (two) than BYU scored in five (one). They simply win far more plays than the opposition and force teams to make the absolute most of the few opportunities they get. Arizona's Noah Fifita completes 73% of his passes, and the Wildcats convert 50% of their third downs (12th nationally). They also rush the passer well. This is their last chance to follow up on the promise of Fifita's redshirt freshman season, when they won 10 games but lost three one-score finishes and fell short in the Pac-12. They're basically one tight loss from doing that again. (* Success rate = how frequently an offense is generating 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.) Current line: Utah -2.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 3.6 | FPI projection: Utah by 3.6 No. 12 Texas Tech at No. 25 Oklahoma State (9:30 p.m., ESPN) Oklahoma State has averaged 48.1 PPG over its last eight games. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins, and receivers Wyatt Young and Justin Bowick have been every bit as prolific as hoped. The Cowboys' defense is extremely one-dimensional -- 42nd in yards allowed per carry (no sacks) and 110th in yards allowed per dropback -- but if you can slow the Tech run game, force quarterback Thomas Castellanos to pass and contain him in the pocket instead of attacking and giving him lanes to escape, his history as a pocket passer isn't great. Even last week, during an otherwise brilliant performance, Tech was 8-for-10 on third-and-6 or less and 0-for-6 on third-and-long. Tech's defense has given up 34 PPG in its last four games, and while Castellanos torched West Virginia, the Mountaineers rank 126th in defensive SP+; OSU plays better defense, and Tech's next two opponents, Baylor and TCU, are even better. The Red Raiders are still positioned for another CFP trip, but only if they raise their game immediately. Current line: OSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.1 | FPI projection: OSU by 0.4 Baylor at No. 10 BYU (3:30 p.m., Fox) Remember when Baylor fired Dave Aranda a few weeks ago? Well, the Bears have beaten their last two conference opponents by a combined 83-40 under interim coach Joe Klanderman, and at 4-2, with shots at BYU, Texas Tech and Houston in the next three weeks, they are very much still involved in the Big 12 title race. Granted, they're underdogs in all three games. BYU is a better team, especially now that running back LJ Martin is back. Bear Bachmeier is 25th in Total QBR; freshman Legend Glasker is one of the nation's best deep threats; and, even after a couple of big shots from Utah, the defense still ranks 13th nationally in yards allowed per play (4.6). Still, the Cougars have lost two of three since beating Notre Dame. Even with that win keeping them in the CFP top 10, their playoff margin for error is gone, and Baylor's defense can create loads of negative plays. Current line: BYU -7.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 5.3 | FPI projection: BYU by 6.6 Order vs. chaos, ACC edition Miami and Wake Forest are your ACC front-runners, but Wake has to win at SMU on Saturday, and the Mustangs still have a sky-high ceiling at home (just ask Virginia Tech). Miami, meanwhile, must fend off a revenge attempt against a Duke team whose head coach (Manny Diaz) was once fired by Miami and who lost last season's two best players (quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Cooper Barkate) to Miami. No. 13 Wake Forest at SMU (noon, ESPN) Wake Forest's Gio Lopez vs. SMU's Kevin Jennings is the best quarterback matchup of the weekend. Jennings is in the middle of his best season yet, and Lopez, who landed at Wake after a dismal season at North Carolina, is a borderline top-10 Heisman contender. His Hudl IQ performance radar is almost a perfect circle. The Deacs rank first nationally in points per possession, and assuming Lopez is close to 100% after sitting out last week's game, he'll face an SMU defense that defends the pass well but ranks 84th in yards allowed per carry (no sacks). Efficiency backs Ty Clark and Deuce Lawrence could do some damage, and that could open up some downfield opportunities for Lopez. In SMU's past two home games, the Mustangs scored 110 combined points, running and passing at will. They are occasionally prone to penalties and turnovers, but they are a sight to behold when they're rolling. Wake has had by far the more impressive defense of late, giving up only 6.2 PPG in its past five games, but the Deacs haven't faced a particularly good offense since Miami and Louisville in September. SMU will test them. Current line: SMU -1.5 (flipped from Wake -1.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Wake by 1.7 | FPI projection: Wake by 3.2 Duke at No. 7 Miami (noon, ABC) Miami's trend lines aren't great. The Hurricanes' defense has given up 31.0 PPG over the past month and made Notre Dame's CJ Carr last week's Heisman of the Week winner. In the absence of star receiver Malachi Toney, the offense stumbled early against the Irish before finding a rhythm with Darian Mensah throwing to Cooper Barkate and tight end Elija Lofton. Duke's trend lines: suddenly spectacular. Over the past two weeks, Duke rocked Boston College and NC State by a combined 88-5. Though the offense still has all-or-nothing tendencies, star running back (and sleeper Heisman contender) Nate Sheppard and, increasingly, redshirt freshman receiver Jaivon Solomon are providing lots of "alls." The Hurricanes still have Mensah, Mark Fletcher Jr., Barkate, Lofton, edge rusher Marquise Lightfoot and enough individual talent to probably prevail. But Manny Diaz probably will pull out all the stops, and with another misstep, Miami's playoff status goes from "safe" to "awfully shaky." Current line: Miami -13.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 13.6 | FPI projection: Miami by 17.0 Order vs. chaos, Big Ten edition Eight teams are within one game of the top two in the Big Ten, but looking at SP+ projections, it might be difficult to knock either 8-1 Indiana (41.9% chance at the Big Ten title) or 9-0 UCLA (40.5%) out of Indianapolis. A pair of Week 11 games could change that calculus. No. 18 USC at No. 9 Indiana (3:30 p.m., CBS) Indiana fell five spots in the CFP rankings without playing. Curt Cignetti generally doesn't seem to need help motivating his players, but he has an extra card to play in that regard this week. Motivation is one thing; the Hoosiers still need better quarterbacking. Josh Hoover's performance fell off a cliff after suffering an only vaguely specified arm injury against Ohio State, and Cignetti needed backup Grant Wilson to save the Minnesota game two weeks ago. It appears Hoover will start Saturday, but running back Turbo Richard is out, and the Hoosiers won't defend their national title without better quarterback play. They do still have a dynamite defense. IU ranks first in yards allowed per play (4.1), and they're equally good against run and pass. But USC will test the Hoosiers secondary's depth. IU cornerback A.J. Harris is working back from an injury, and though Jamari Sharpe remains an excellent CB No. 1, USC quarterback Jayden Maiava has distributed the ball to a number of targets -- five players have between 21 and 32 catches. USC was shut down by Wisconsin but scored at least 25 points against four other SP+ top-30 defenses. If the Trojans put at least three touchdowns on the board, can IU's offense follow suit? Current line: Hoosiers -10 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: Hoosiers by 10.2 | FPI projection: Hoosiers by 10.9 Illinois at No. 4 UCLA (Friday, 9 p.m., Fox) UCLA has certainly benefited from an easy schedule thus far, but the Bruins have won eight of nine games by double digits, and what they do well, they do extraordinarily well. The Bruins' defense is second nationally in success rate allowed (first against the pass) and first in takeaways, and their offense is eighth in rushing success rate and seventh in percentage of completions gaining at least 20 yards. Thus far, no one has punished them for their inability to pass efficiently. Since quarterback Ty Dieffenbach took over for injured Nico Iamaleava four weeks ago, UCLA ranks 104th in passing success rate. We saw against Minnesota that Dieffenbach can throw a lovely deep ball -- back-to-back 75-yard bombs to Aidan Mizell changed the game -- but UCLA's fatal flaw is apparent. Illinois isn't really a team you want to play right now. Bret Bielema's Fighting Illini have scraped out four straight wins. The defense has improved, but mostly against the pass -- in the past three weeks, they still rank 99th in yards allowed per rush (no sacks). That will hinder an upset bid, but the Illini are crafty. Current line: UCLA -10 | SP+ projection: UCLA by 14.7 | FPI projection: UCLA by 8.8 Huge tests for Broncos, Mean Green Boise State is in the driver's seat for the Group of 6's automatic CFP bid, but its defense is springing leaks just in time to welcome a prolific Oregon State team (and "College GameDay") to town. Meanwhile, North Texas, one of the CFP hopefuls hoping both the Broncos and New Mexico slip up, is facing a major road test. Oregon State at No. 24 Boise State (6 p.m., USA) Boise State has scored at least 31 points in each of their past eight games, Dylan Riley is one of the best running backs in the country, and even when quarterback Maddux Madsen sat out last week's game, backup Max Cutforth engineered a 64-point performance. What the heck happened to the Broncos' defense the past two weeks, though? Against both Texas State and Colorado State, BSU controlled the first half (13 combined points allowed, 5.1 yards per play) and built big leads, then gave up truckloads of big plays after halftime (70 points, 9.5 yards per play). Oregon State might help us understand if this is a real problem or a case of being too passive with a big lead. Granted, the Beavers' offense has trailed off a bit and probably will face the Broncos without quarterback Braden Atkinson (hand injury). But they still have big-play receiver Jesse Legree and could hope to turn this into a track meet (in the second half, at least). Current line: BSU -15.5 (up from -10.5 due to the Atkinson news) | SP+ projection: BSU by 12.5 | FPI projection: BSU by 10.2 North Texas at UTSA (9 p.m., ESPNU) UTSA had slim CFP hopes until last Thursday's walloping at Florida Atlantic. The Roadrunners are still in the American Conference race, and now they have a chance to wreck the dreams of a new CFP hopeful, North Texas. The Mean Green have won six in a row, scoring at least 45 points in each game. Quarterback Tayven Jackson's late-career resurgence has been incredible. In stops at Indiana and UCF, he was 7-9 as a starter with a 48.8 Total QBR; this season in Denton, he's 7-2 with a 78.0. He's getting loads of help from running back Jahiem White (166.0 yards per game from scrimmage). UTSA is looking at a sixth straight year with a top-40 offensive SP+ ranking, but North Texas' offense is a step ahead. Still, the Roadrunners are dynamite at home, and their aggressive secondary could make some plays. Current line: UNT -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 1.4 | FPI projection: UNT by 4.6 Week 11 chaos superfecta We're once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to Michigan State's upset win in Ann Arbor on Saturday night, we won another one. We've taken down a favorite in eight of 10 weeks; let's make it 9-for-11. Despite all these games having double-digit spreads, SP+ says there's only a 31% chance that UCLA (-10 vs. Illinois), Virginia (-10 vs. Cal), Texas State (-10 vs. Fresno State) and Boise State (-13.5 vs. Oregon State) all win. May the chaos continue! Week 11 playlist Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives. Friday evening No. 14 Houston at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN). In its past three home games, Colorado has annoyed Texas Tech, scared the hell out of Utah and beaten Kansas State. Houston will have to be rock solid to take care of business, and it's at least a small concern that the Cougars have slightly underachieved against SP+ projections for three straight weeks. Can the offense shift back into gear? Current line: Houston -9.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 16.8 | FPI projection: Houston by 13.7 Florida State at Pittsburgh (7 p.m., ESPN). Former FSU quarterback Rick Stockstill is 1-0 as interim head coach following last week's tight win over Boston College. This one's a lot tricker, the weather more blustery. Pitt's offense has stabilized of late, and the defense still ranks seventh in success rate allowed. The Panthers aren't in the playoff chase or anything, but they still have a shot at a solid finish. Current line: Pitt -3.5 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 7.2 | FPI projection: Pitt by 4.2 Early Saturday Northwestern at No. 20 Ohio State (noon, Fox). Both Ohio State and Northwestern have lost back-to-back games, and with Northwestern's Aidan Chiles still out because of injury, both are fielding backup quarterbacks. Ohio State is in full existential crisis mode, but I'm not sure Chip Kelly can scheme up enough big plays for the Wildcats to keep up, even if Buckeyes quarterback Luke Fahey continues to be hit and miss. Current line: OSU -14 (up from -11.5) | SP+ projection: OSU by 14.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 15.1 No. 3 Alabama at Vanderbilt (12:45 p.m., SECN). Vandy ended a five-game losing streak by beating Mississippi State last week, but if you can gain only 328 yards against MSU, you might gain only 164 against Alabama. Vandy blitzes a lot and sometimes gets home, but it might take about 10 sacks of Keelon Russell for this one to become a scare. Current line: Bama -17.5 (down from -19.5) | SP+ projection: Bama by 21.7 | FPI projection: Bama by 24.7 Auburn at Mississippi State (noon, ESPN2). It has been a cruel season in Starkville. MSU started 4-0 with quarterback and September Heisman winner Kamario Taylor, but Taylor got hurt, the offense disintegrated and the Bulldogs have lost five in a row. Their defense is playing all right, and Auburn's offense certainly isn't amazing, but even an Auburn defense in disarray will probably make too many stops in this one. Current line: Auburn -2.5 | SP+ projection: MSU by 3.5 | FPI projection: MSU by 0.3 Saturday afternoon Boston College at No. 5 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC). The last time Notre Dame beat a No. 1 team in front of a packed Notre Dame Stadium crowd was in 1993, when the Irish famously took down Florida State 31-24. The next week, Boston College scored maybe its most famous win that didn't involve a Hail Mary: 41-39 over top-ranked Notre Dame. An upset here would be even bigger -- the Eagles were 15-point underdogs then and are more than 30-point 'dogs now. But hey, reminiscing is always fun, right? Current line: Irish -29.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 32.3 | FPI projection: Irish by 35.4 No. 19 Ole Miss at Oklahoma (4:15 p.m., SECN). The last time Ole Miss got pummeled, by Florida in Week 4, the Rebels responded with two awesome performances. We'll see if they can summon something similar after last week's Georgia disaster. OU actually looked semi-complete in last week's 23-7 win over Florida. The Sooners can rush the heck out of the passer, and Trinidad Chambliss got hit a lot last week. Current line: OU -1.5 (flipped from Ole Miss -1.5) | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 3.2 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 2.5 Michigan at No. 16 Oregon (3:30 p.m., FS1). Michigan has underachieved against SP+ projections for five of the past six games, just fired its offensive coordinator and is evidently reopening its QB competition. Oregon has rebounded from its own collapse and is still technically in the playoff hunt. It would be so extremely college football for the Wolverines to pull an upset. But no, probably not. Current line: Ducks -10.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 9.3 | FPI projection: Ducks by 15.4 Florida Atlantic at Tulsa (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). There's no way this game can live up to my hopes and dreams. Both of these teams scored 60 points last week. FAU has averaged 47.8 over its past six games while Tulsa has averaged 44.3 over its past three. In my head, this will make last week's Texas Tech-West Virginia game look like last week's Michigan-Michigan State game. Perfect quad box material. Current line: Tulsa -5.5 | SP+ projection: Tulsa by 4.9 | FPI projection: Tulsa by 10.1 Georgia Southern at Georgia State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). Modern Day Hate! Georgia Southern has won three straight in this series, and the Eagles are very much involved in the Sun Belt title race. But this is the best Georgia State team since at least 2023. A trio of Panthers backs led by Lanear McCrary Jr. is combining for 150 rushing yards per game, but the Southern run defense is quite disruptive. Current line: Southern -6 | SP+ projection: Southern by 4.4 | FPI projection: Southern by 3.9 Saturday evening Florida at No. 11 Kentucky (6:15 p.m., ESPN). Florida has lost four of its past five. In that span, the Gators rank 127th in points per drive on offense and 104th on defense. The pass defense has been poor, the run game atrocious. Kentucky, therefore, has a pretty good shot at bouncing back after last week's shellacking at Tennessee, but the Wildcats have to solve some major issues in pass protection. Current line: Kentucky -3.5 | SP+ projection: Kentucky by 4.9 | FPI projection: Kentucky by 1.3 No. 17 South Carolina at Arkansas (7:45 p.m., SECN). South Carolina is again putting together a late-season charge and gearing up for a massive finish: Georgia in Week 12, at Clemson in Week 13. But first, the Gamecocks have to get quarterback LaNorris Sellers right after last week's ankle injury, and handle an Arkansas team that flirts with potential but can't maintain a challenge. Current line: Gamecocks -7 | SP+ projection: Gamecocks by 14.8 | FPI projection: Gamecocks by 10.4 Louisville at North Carolina (7 p.m., ESPN2). Louisville has lost three games by a combined nine points and has won six by an average of 23.8. But UNC has overachieved against projections in five of six games and has scored at least 30 in three straight. The Tar Heels also play a pretty frustrating bend-don't-break defense. Louisville still has hope in the ACC race but can't slip up in Chapel Hill. Current line: Louisville -3.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 10.0 | FPI projection: Louisville by 3.4 Purdue at No. 15 Iowa (7:30 p.m., NBC). Purdue's offense has taken a solid step forward, but the Boilermakers are 3-6 because of a defense that ranks 134th in points allowed per possession and just fired its coordinator. Iowa's offense isn't exactly fun-and-gun, but the Hawkeyes have scored 30-plus four times and will force Ryan Browne and a solid Purdue passing game to play their best game of the season. Current line: Iowa -17.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 21.3 | FPI projection: Iowa by 16.2 UNLV at New Mexico (7:30 p.m., The CW). UNLV gave up 41 points to both Air Force and Wyoming, and if the Rebels give up even 24 to New Mexico they're in trouble, especially in potentially rainy conditions. The Lobos' offense showed signs of life last week, but the defense is why they're 8-1. They're first in both points allowed per possession and success rate allowed. The CFP is still within reach for UNM with a win. Current line: Lobos -14 | SP+ projection: Lobos by 20.6 | FPI projection: Lobos by 14.2 Kansas at West Virginia (5:30 p.m., ESPNU). Yet another Kansas season has been sidetracked by an inability to win close games. The Jayhawks have a legitimate run defense and make big plays with the pass. Of course, against the Mountaineers no one has a good run defense and everyone makes big passes. WVU has scored at least 38 in five of eight games and given up at least 41 in five of six. Track meet forthcoming! Current line: WVU by 3 | SP+ projection: WVU by 0.3 | FPI projection: WVU by 1.3 Late Saturday North Dakota State at Hawai'i (11 p.m., The CW). NDSU is basically New Mexico North: The Bison are tied for first with the Lobos in points allowed per possession, but their offense (especially the run game) hasn't been reliable enough to maintain a push in the Mountain West. Hawai'i, meanwhile, has won two in a row after a dreadful start and frustrated New Mexico a few weeks ago. Current line: NDSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NDSU by 18.5 | FPI projection: NDSU by 6.2 Smaller-school showcase Let's once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track. Division III: Coast Guard vs. Merchant Marine (1 p.m., ESPN+). It's Secretaries' Cup time! A year ago, Merchant Marine's Bubba Mustain rushed for 274 yards, threw for 150 and produced five total TDs -- the last of which won the game with 20 seconds left. Mustain has produced another 31 total TDs this season, and the Mariners are 7-1. Coast Guard is a mere 4-5, but hey, throw the records out for a big rivalry, right? SP+ projection: Mariners by 21.2 FCS: No. 11 Mercer at No. 9 Tennessee Tech (2:30, ESPN+). It's an interesting few weeks ahead for Tennessee Tech. First, the Golden Eagles will try to lock up the Southern Conference title against a Mercer team that has won six straight. They'll pause their FCS quest and attempt to surprise a reeling Mississippi State, then head into the playoffs. Tech's offense ranks 11th in FCS in points per drive, but Mercer's recent run has been driven by an aggressive defense that racks up TFLs and three-and-outs. SP+ projection: Tech by 7.6. Division II: No. 4 Western Colorado at No. 3 CSU Pueblo (3 p.m., local streaming). The Division II and Division III playoffs begin next week, but first we have a massive prelim. The playoffs are divided into four geographic super regions, and with four of the top nine teams in SP+ -- including these two, who both score over 43 PPG and give up under 17 -- Super Region 4 is loaded. Mountaineers-ThunderWolves is a heavyweight matchup right before all the heavyweight matchups start. SP+ projection: CSU Pueblo by 2.3. Also, a preemptive shoutout to Division II's top team, Ferris State. With a win over Roosevelt on Saturday, the Bulldogs would own a record D-II winning streak at 41 games. Hopefully that wasn't a jinx, but they're projected 42-point favorites -- it would have to be a hell of a jinx.