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Machine Learning-Based Bitcoin Trading Under Transaction Costs: Evidence From Walk-Forward Forecasting
arXiv:2606.00060v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper investigates whether machine learning forecasts of hourly BTC-USDT returns can be converted into economically meaningful trading performance after transaction costs. Using approximately 70,000 hourly observations from 2018-2026, XGBoost, LSTM, and iTransformer are evaluated in a 27-fold walk-forward protocol. All three models produce positive gross trading performance in selected configurations, but naive sign-based strategies fail...
Bitcoin is weathering its ugliest week in months as narrative fades and liquidity rotates
Bitcoin is getting pummeled to kick off June as the market loses its dominant narrative and liquidity continues to rotate into other assets. The combination has left the flagship cryptocurrency vulnerable to further downside pressure as investors scale back risk and capital shifts toward markets with more momentum or more obvious near-term catalysts, like the chip rally or the SpaceX IPO. Bitcoin is down 13% this week and heading for its worst week since February, according to Coin Metrics.
Bitcoin's high conviction holders are turning into sellers as the crypto's price hits new lows
Bitcoin's highest conviction holders have joined the sell-off in the cryptocurrency, which could signal the beginning of the end of the ongoing crypto slump, according to Compass Point. Long-term holders – defined as those that have held onto their coins for at least 155 days, or about five months – were largely inactive from February to April but have turned into sellers in recent weeks, Compass Point analyst Ed Engel said in a note Tuesday. In the past two days they've sold about $2.4...
Energy transport corridors to Europe boosted by AI and new digital systems
AI and new digital technologies are key to the urgently needed alternative energy trade routes through the Southern Gas Corridor and the Middle Corridor systems connecting the Caspian and Europe. The Southern Gas Corridor and the rapidly developing Middle Corridor trade routes connecting Asia to Europe through the Caspian region are emerging as strategic energy transport bridges amid global disruptions, but these energy transit systems and their security require urgent investments in...
The SpaceX IPO Will Be the Theft of the Century
The SpaceX IPO Will Be the Theft of the Century An S-1 full of fantasies, insiders who will pocket millions, index companies that have changed the rules: it's all a recipe for regular people to have their pockets picked. As the SpaceX IPO approaches, a few observations and predictions: I. As a Business, SpaceX Will Be a Spectacular Failure In a real sense, the entire SpaceX value proposition rests upon the Starship project. And when I say “Starship,” I mean a Starship version that is far...