Climate Dynamics
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Related Articles from SNS
Learning General Causal Structures with Hidden Dynamic Process for Climate Analysis
arXiv:2501.12500v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Understanding climate dynamics requires going beyond correlations in observational data to uncover the underlying causal process. Latent drivers such as atmospheric processes play a central role in temporal dynamics, while direct causal influences also exist among geographically proximate observed variables. Traditional Causal Representation Learning (CRL) typically focuses on latent factors but overlooks such observable-to-observable...
A mathematical framework for dynamic emergent constraints in climate science
Announce Type: new Abstract: Emergent constraints in climate science are empirical relations that link the response to a forcing of a physical observable to the properties of other observables, with the aim of reducing climate change projection uncertainties. Here we use recent results in linear response theory to develop a mathematical framework for dynamic emergent constraints, a class of emergent constraints linking the response of different observables to the same forcing. We show how...
Multiscale Dynamics of Heatwave Persistence and Intensity Under Climate Change
Announce Type: new Abstract: Climate change is expected to increase heatwave risk, but exceedance frequency alone cannot explain why some regions show stronger amplification in event persistence. This study develops an integrated event-dynamical workflow to diagnose changes in warm-season heatwaves and link them to coherent, multiscale structures of temperature variability. Heatwaves are identified over southern Canada using a fixed historical 90th percentile threshold (2001-2010 reference,...
PnP-Corrector: A Universal Correction Framework for Coupled Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Announce Type: replace Abstract: Coupled spatiotemporal forecasting is important for predicting the future evolution of multiple interacting dynamical systems, such as in climate models. However, existing methods are severely constrained by the persistent bottleneck of compounding errors. In coupled systems, errors from each subsystem simulator propagate and amplify one another, a phenomenon we term Reciprocal Error Amplification, leading to a rapid collapse of long-range predictions.
Probabilistic storyline attribution using machine learning
arXiv:2606.02550v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A fundamental goal in climate attribution is to estimate how forced climate change contributes to observed extreme weather events. The storyline attribution method compares an observed weather event, conditional on its atmospheric dynamic state (i.e., atmospheric circulation), in the current, 'factual' climate to an event with very similar circulation conditions in a hypothetical, 'counterfactual' climate.
Intraspecific genetic variation modulates immune responses to acute heat exposure in an aquatic ectotherm
Climate change-induced heatwaves threaten ectotherms, whose physiology is tightly coupled to ambient temperature. Vulnerability assessments often rely on data from one or a few populations, implicitly assuming uniform thermal sensitivity across species genetic diversity. Quantifying such variation is especially important for traits with wider ecological consequences; our focus here is on immune function, which shapes disease dynamics.
Atmospheric rivers over Japan intensify 8% in 42 years, raising flood risk
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow bands of intense water vapor transport that move large amounts of moisture from low to midlatitudes, resembling giant rivers in the sky. They are gaining widespread attention because of their potential to trigger flooding across the Japanese archipelago. Researchers at the University of Tsukuba have discovered that, influenced by global warming and the strengthening of the North Pacific Subtropical High, the intensity of water vapor transport in ARs...
Eight metabolic niches reveal how ocean microbes recycle carbon worldwide
Eight metabolic niches reveal how ocean microbes recycle carbon worldwide Stephanie Baum Scientific Editor Robert Egan Associate Editor The ocean is full of invisible workers. Trillions of microbes quietly break down carbon-containing organic matter, which helps to regulate Earth's climate. But scientists have long struggled to understand how different microbes contribute to the process.
Why do Venus and Jupiter meet up in the sky so often? It's a symptom of a solar system that supports life on Earth
Why do Venus and Jupiter meet up in the sky so often? It's a symptom of a solar system that supports life on Earth "Orbital dynamics allows you to start to think about all those fun, different aspects of what makes our planet habitable, and ask how normal it is to have a habitable planet." Shortly after sunset on June 9, Venus and Jupiter will look very close together, in what is known as a planetary conjunction.
Climate scientists say heatwave misinformation is fuelling online harassment
Misleading claims about Europe's record heatwave in May have followed familiar climate-change denial narratives, as scientists say that misinformation can help fuel online hostility. A May heatwave across Europe has shattered temperature records and sparked a wave of familiar claims online that attempt to throw climate science into disrepute. One post on X, viewed thousands of times, claims that historic heatwaves, such as those in London in the summer of 1976 and in 1921, prove that the...