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New Relative Niño index introduces more robust way to measure El Niño strength
New Relative Niño index introduces more robust way to measure El Niño strength Stephanie Baum Scientific Editor Robert Egan Associate Editor A new El Niño index that provides a more climate-robust measure of the strength of El Niño signals has been released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). With the World Meteorological Organization's recent update indicating an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026 and a 90% probability of this...
UK weather maps show 21 counties at 30C or above with 32C surge days away – list
UK weather maps show 21 counties at 30C or above with 32C surge days away – list The ECMWF weather model shows UK temperatures could soon surge above 30C again, as Met Office forecasters say ‘hot’ conditions are on the cards for some Temperatures in the UK could surge to 32C in a matter of days, advanced weather forecasting maps show. The mercury has returned to normal levels this week following a scorching May heatwave which saw temperatures rise above 35C - the hottest they have ever been...
Machine Learning (ML)-Physics Fusion Model Outperforms Both Physics-Only and ML-Only Models in Typhoon Predictions
Announce Type: replace Abstract: Data-driven machine learning (ML) models, such as FuXi, exhibit notable limitations in forecasting typhoon intensity and structure. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of FuXi-SHTM, a hybrid ML-physics model, using all 2024 western North Pacific typhoon cases. The FuXi-SHTM hybrid demonstrates clear improvements in both track and intensity forecasts compared to the standalone SHTM, FuXi, and ECMWF HRES models.
Coming El Niño will be the strongest ever recorded, new forecast predicts
Coming El Niño will be the strongest ever recorded, new forecast predicts A June update by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggests that the coming weather event will be the strongest ever measured. This year's brewing El Niño will likely become the strongest ever recorded, a new forecast warns. New predictions by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest sea surface temperatures in a key region of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean will...
Performance Evaluation of GraphCast for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting over Brazil
Announce Type: new Abstract: The paradigm of global weather forecasting is rapidly shifting with the emergence of Machine Learning Weather Prediction models (MLWP). While these data-driven architectures demonstrate remarkable global skill, regional benchmarks in the Global South remain scarce, leaving their efficacy in complex, highly convective environments largely unverified. This study evaluates the performance of GraphCast operational against the deterministic ECMWF IFS HRES as baseline...
El Nino is here, says European agency amid Pacific warming
El Nino has set in, the latest update from the European weather agency indicated on Thursday. According to it, temperatures in the rapidly warming Pacific Ocean crossed the 0.5°C threshold of El Nino in May. This is likely to set in motion changes in atmospheric conditions that are projected to deeply impact global weather - including the Indian monsoon - in coming months.
UK weather maps show temperature plunge to 1C days away – 92 counties below 10C
UK weather maps show temperature plunge to 1C days away – 92 counties below 10C Despite a scorching heatwave in May and forecasters predicting more hot conditions this summer, weather modelling maps suggest a chilly spell is just days away Weather models suggest morning temperatures could soon drop into single digits right across the UK - plunging as low as 1C in the coldest regions. That is despite weather forecasters from the Met Office and MeteoGroup - which provides data to BBC Weather -...
UK weather maps show latest heatwave forecast for Britain in days - 14 hottest counties
UK weather maps show latest heatwave forecast for Britain in days - 14 hottest counties New weather maps show Britain is set for another blast of summer warmth within days, with forecasters predicting temperatures climbing to 26C across parts of southern and eastern England Britain is braced for another burst of early summer warmth within days, forecasters say. These striking weather maps show temperatures are to climb to 26C across parts of southern and eastern England, with 14 counties...
Met Office issues 'very warm' June as weather maps forecast new 34C heatwave
Met Office issues 'very warm' June as weather maps forecast new 34C heatwave The UK could be in for its latest heatwave as the Met Office forecasts a very warm period across England and Wales - and WXCharts models suggest some areas could hit 34C These striking weather maps show Britain is braced for a fresh heatwave this month. Temperatures are to soar to 34C amid the "very warm or hot conditions" during the next heatwave, which will be at its strongest in mid-June. Forecasters understand...
EU monitor warns of 'new normal' following record temperatures in May
Records were broken in Britain, France, Ireland and Portugal last month as a "heat dome" of warm air from northern Africa pushed temperatures well above normal levels across western Europe. Europe experienced one of its hottest Mays on record last month under an unusually early heatwave that the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service warned is becoming the "new normal". It was the second-hottest May on record globally, and Britain, France, Ireland and Portugal broke their own records as a...