Improved Distribution Estimation
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Related Articles from SNS
Improved Distribution Estimation in $\ell_\infty$
arXiv:2605.30509v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present improved bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These include minimax bounds in expectation and high-probability tail bounds. We resolve some of the open questions posed in Kontorovich and Painsky (JMLR, 2025) -- including a fully empirical version of the tightest risk bound they presented and identifying the form of the worst-case extremal distribution.
Entropic Projection Alignment: Estimating, Explaining, and Improving Model Performance Under Distribution Shift
Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a unified framework for addressing three key challenges of distribution shift: (1) estimating a model's performance on an unlabeled target domain, (2) explaining the shift by identifying the features responsible, and (3) improving the target domain performance. Our method, Entropic Projection Alignment (EPA), aligns the source distribution to the target by matching carefully selected moments while simultaneously minimising the KL divergence from the...
Realistic noise synthesis reduces bias and improves tissue microstructure estimation with supervised machine learning
Announce Type: new Abstract: Diffusion MRI enables non-invasive probing of tissue microstructure, but accurate parameter estimation is challenged by noise-related effects. In supervised machine learning frameworks trained on simulated data, discrepancies between the noise characteristics of simulated and acquired signals introduce a form of covariate shift, whereby the input signal distribution differs between training and inference. We investigated the impact of this mismatch on...
Realistic noise synthesis reduces bias and improves tissue microstructure estimation with supervised machine learning
Announce Type: cross Abstract: Diffusion MRI enables non-invasive probing of tissue microstructure, but accurate parameter estimation is challenged by noise-related effects. In supervised machine learning frameworks trained on simulated data, discrepancies between the noise characteristics of simulated and acquired signals introduce a form of covariate shift, whereby the input signal distribution differs between training and inference. We investigated the impact of this mismatch on...
Information-Theoretic Bounds for Sparse Covariance Estimation in the Vertical-Split Distributed Model
Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the minimax estimation error for distributed covariance matrix estimation in the vertical-split (feature-split) setting, where two agents each observe different coordinates of $m$ i.i.d. and communicate a limited number of bits to a central server. [2025] established nearly tight bounds for dense (unstructured) cross-covariance matrices, we investigate whether imposing elementwise $s$-sparsity on the cross-covariance $C_{21}$ can reduce the required...
Improving the Accuracy of Forensic Age Estimation Through Bias Reduction
Chronological age estimation can provide supporting information in forensic casework when traditional identification methods are limited. DNA methylation, a stable epigenetic mark, has emerged as a promising tool for predicting chronological age from trace samples. However, many existing age estimation models rely on linear regression approaches, which often yield biased prediction errors across the age distribution (i.e. model residuals show a significant age dependence).
Value Flows
arXiv:2510.07650v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While most reinforcement learning methods today flatten the distribution of future returns to a single scalar value, distributional RL methods exploit the return distribution to provide stronger learning signals and to enable applications in exploration and safe RL. While the predominant method for estimating the return distribution is by modeling it as a categorical distribution over discrete bins or estimating a finite number of...
Bridging Domain Expertise and Generalization for Performance Estimation
arXiv:2606.06335v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Performance estimation under distribution shift aims to predict how a model behaves on an unlabeled test set whose distribution differs from the training data, a scenario that requires reliable indicators that can faithfully reflect model behavior without ground-truth labels. Existing approaches rely solely on the outputs of the given model whose biases are amplified once the distribution shifts, weakening the correlation with the true...
Curriculum-Adapted Robust Reinforcement Learning for UAV Deconfliction in Adversarial Environments
Announce Type: replace Abstract: Autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) increasingly rely on reinforcement learning (RL) for navigation. However, global navigation satellite system (GNSS) spoofing attacks can induce out-of-distribution observation shifts that corrupt value estimation and degrade mission performance. Existing robust RL approaches typically improve resilience against specific attack models but often fail to generalize to attacks not encountered during training.
Decentralized EM Algorithm for Gaussian Mixtures under Data Heterogeneity and Partial Labeling
arXiv:2411.05591v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We systematically study several network-based Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms for the Gaussian mixture model within decentralized federated learning (DFL). Our theoretical investigation shows that directly extending the classic EM algorithm to DFL leads to a biased estimator when data are heterogeneously distributed across sites. To address this, we introduce a momentum network EM (MNEM) algorithm, which integrates...