Kalman-Aware Framework For Ergodic Emulation

The Dynamic-Probabilistic Consistency Gap in Chaotic Surrogate Modeling

arXiv:2605.31547v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR) aims to learn surrogate models that capture the dynamics underlying time-series data. Reliably deploying these surrogates requires uncertainty estimates consistent with the learned dynamics. We expose a dynamic-probabilistic consistency (DPC) gap: the pursuit of finite-horizon probabilistic objectives can degrade dynamics or decouple predictive uncertainty from the local tangent dynamics it ought to reflect.