Markov Switching Model
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Related Articles from SNS
Identifiable Markov Switching Models with Instantaneous Effects and Exponential Families
arXiv:2606.02231v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Temporal systems often exhibit non-stationary behaviour, such as seasonal climate variation or glucose fluctuations in patients with type-1 diabetes. One way to model non-stationarity is through discrete latent regimes, i.e., stationary segments of time. Such systems induce a Markov Switching Model (MSM), a class of Hidden Markov Models with autoregressive dependencies among latent regimes and observed variables.
Regime-Arrival Uncertainty in Generalization Bounds under Distribution Shift
arXiv:2606.02657v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The standard generalization bounds assume that the training and deployment distributions are the same, or are static, and don't consider regime switching environments where the ratio of calm vs crisis states is different. This paper proposes a framework that generalizes regime-aware models by quantifying the extra risk due to regime composition mismatch, when distribution shifts are Markov-switching. We obtain an exact decomposition, separating...