Peirce Skill Score

Forecasting threshold exceedance of atmospheric variables at a specific location

arXiv:2605.31079v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This study compares two methodological approaches for predicting, at a given site, threshold exceedances of atmospheric variables such as temperature and wind speed: (i) direct probabilistic methods, which treat exceedance as a binary classification problem, and (ii) full distribution probabilistic methods, which model the complete conditional probability law of the target variable. Using theoretical analysis and numerical simulations on a toy...