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A Rolling-Window Framework for Churn Prediction and Behavioral Driver Identification
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arXiv:2606.03864v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce an explainable machine-learning approach that forecasts the structural precursors of scientific breakthroughs -- the emergence and intensification of links between research concepts -- by modelling how OpenAlex concept networks evolve over time. Using 59 semantic and topological features, a two-stage LightGBM model jointly predicts the formation and the future weight of concept pairs, adding a regression stage that quantifies...
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