Relative El Niño
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New Relative Niño index introduces more robust way to measure El Niño strength
New Relative Niño index introduces more robust way to measure El Niño strength Stephanie Baum Scientific Editor Robert Egan Associate Editor A new El Niño index that provides a more climate-robust measure of the strength of El Niño signals has been released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). With the World Meteorological Organization's recent update indicating an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026 and a 90% probability of this...
A very strong El Niño is approaching. Here's what we can expect
A very strong El Niño is approaching. Here's what we can expect Robert Egan Associate Editor El Niño is a recurring climate event with impacts across the globe. It has three phases: one cold (known as La Niña), one neutral, and one warm (El Niño).
The looming El Niño could be bad – but much worse is to come
A “Godzilla El Niño” is coming, according to some newspaper headlines. The actual story is that there is an 80 per cent chance of an El Niño developing by September. Most models forecast a moderate event – but some suggest it could be very strong, perhaps even a so-called super El Niño.
Coming El Niño will be the strongest ever recorded, new forecast predicts
Coming El Niño will be the strongest ever recorded, new forecast predicts A June update by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggests that the coming weather event will be the strongest ever measured. This year's brewing El Niño will likely become the strongest ever recorded, a new forecast warns. New predictions by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest sea surface temperatures in a key region of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean will...
UN warns El Niño to bring more heat and disasters in coming months
BRUSSELS — The world must prepare for a surge in weather extremes and heat waves as a potentially exceptional El Niño emerges, the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization has warned. The WMO said on Tuesday that there’s an 80 percent chance of an El Niño — the warm phase of a natural climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean — developing between June and August, and a 90 percent chance the event will arrive by November. El Niño’s return heralds a temporary upsurge in global...
Strong El Niño likely this year, climate change could intensify extreme weather: WMO
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Tuesday warned of a likely return of a strong El Niño event this year, raising concerns about more extreme weather worldwide as climate change amplifies its effects, Reuters reported. The UN weather body said there is an 80% chance of El Niño developing between June and August and a 90% probability that it will persist until at least November, marking the clearest indication yet of the weather phenomenon's return. El Niño occurs every 2 to 7...
El Niño is set to bring extreme weather this summer. Here’s what it means for travellers
The UN’s World Meteorological Organisation now warns there is an 80% chance El Niño develops this summer. Extreme weather is increasingly impacting travel experiences and decisions, from intense heat changing summer holiday habits and destinations to risks of wildfires driving interest in travel insurance. Now, climate models are predicting the arrival of a ‘super’ El Niño this year.
Models suggest amplitude of El Niño in 2026 'as high or higher than any event in last century'
Models suggest amplitude of El Niño in 2026 'as high or higher than any event in last century' Environment To display this content from YouTube, you must enable advertisement tracking and audience measurement. One of your browser extensions seems to be blocking the video player from loading. To watch this content, you may need to disable it on this site.
Hurricane season begins, with the first below-average forecast in a decade
Hurricane season in the Atlantic kicked off Monday, and, for the first time in more than a decade, forecasters expect it to be relatively slow. The below-average forecast is driven by the expectation that a strong El Niño pattern will develop, which is associated with less hurricane formation in the Atlantic. The opposite is true in the Pacific, however, which should have an active season.
'Rain bomb', mini tornadoes: Debunking Australia's greatest weather myths
From 'rain bombs' to El Niño: Debunking Australia's greatest weather myths and misconceptions Sun 7 Jun 2026 at 4:47am Weather is widely considered one of the most discussed topics of conversation in the world, and since we all live in it everyone has an opinion on the subject. However, meteorologic rhetoric in Australia, including from the media, can at times be inaccurate, misconstrued or just completely fictitious. So, in no particular order, let's explore some of the most common...