Scale-Free Priors and Survival Dynamics

Scale-Free Priors and Survival Dynamics: A Bayesian Framework for Conflict Duration

arXiv:2606.01328v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We have developed a fully Bayesian survival-analysis framework that reformulates inference about system lifetimes in terms of hazard and survival functions, and extends this representation to interacting actors. Starting from J.~Richard Gott's Copernican principle, we express the scale-free prior as a baseline hazard $\lambda(t)=1/t$, thereby linking a static prior over lifetimes to the dynamic language of survival analysis. In this...