Temporal Spatial Minimax Rate

A Temporal Spatial Minimax Rate for Smoothly-Varying Distributions in Wasserstein Space

arXiv:2606.07325v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the minimax rate of estimating a future value $\mu_{t_n+h}$ of a curve $t\mapsto\mu_t$ in the $2$-Wasserstein space $\mathcal{P}_2(\mathbb{R}^d)$ from finitely many noisy snapshots of its past, under an adiabatic bound $\|\nabla_t^k v\|\le\varepsilon$ on the $k$-th covariant derivative of the velocity field. Our central result is a unified temporal-spatial minimax lower bound: over regular, locally transport-rich subclasses, every...