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Residual Pseudospectra Reveal a Physics-Informed Koopman Backbone for Tropical Pacific Variability and ENSO Prediction

Announce Type: new Abstract: Tropical Pacific sea-surface-temperature (SST) variability spans interacting timescales, with the ENSO as its dominant interannual expression. Yet the dynamical structure organizing this variability and underpinning extended-range predictability remains difficult to extract from high-dimensional observations. Koopman operator learning offers spectral coordinates for nonlinear dynamics, yet finite geophysical records often produce dense, sampling-sensitive spectra...

arXiv CS 1d ago

Residual Pseudospectra Reveal a Physics-Informed Koopman Backbone for Tropical Pacific Variability and ENSO Prediction

Announce Type: cross Abstract: Tropical Pacific sea-surface-temperature (SST) variability spans interacting timescales, with the ENSO as its dominant interannual expression. Yet the dynamical structure organizing this variability and underpinning extended-range predictability remains difficult to extract from high-dimensional observations. Koopman operator learning offers spectral coordinates for nonlinear dynamics, yet finite geophysical records often produce dense, sampling-sensitive...

arXiv Physics 1d ago

UN warns world to prepare for El Nino extreme weather

UN warns world to prepare for El Nino extreme weather Andrew Zinin Lead Editor There is an 80% chance of the warming El Niño phenomenon developing between June and August, increasing the risk of extreme weather events, the World Meteorological Organization said Tuesday. "Fuelled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Niño conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns," the United Nations' WMO weather and climate agency said....

Phys.org 8d ago

Distant climate patterns determine how cold Japan's winters become

Distant climate patterns determine how cold Japan's winters become Gaby Clark Scientific Editor Andrew Zinin Lead Editor Researchers have uncovered a key mechanism behind Japan's extreme winter weather, revealing how distant climate patterns interact to intensify cold waves and heavy snowfall. Extreme weather events—such as cold waves, heavy snowfall and anomalously warm periods—are ubiquitous during Japanese winters. These events are closely associated with shifts in the subtropical jet...

Phys.org 8d ago

El Niño: Almost everywhere will face above average summer temperatures, WMO warns

El Niño is a naturally occurring weather phenomenon but its effects are worse because of climate change. El Niño will hit this summer with 80 per cent certainty, according to the latest forecast by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) – and Europe should brace for more extreme heat, with some areas at heightened risk of drought and flooding. Over the past week, parts of Western Europe suffered record-breaking spring temperatures as a powerful heat dome formed.

Euronews 8d ago

The 2025 hurricane season was devastating. Will 2026 be calmer?

The 2025 hurricane season was devastating. "There is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold," forecasters stress. There might have only been thirteen named storms for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, but it only takes one storm to devastate communities in its path.

Space.com 9d ago

Cuts to US ocean programme will hinder monitoring of El Niño and AMOC

In the winter of 2013-2014, the strong winds of the jet stream shifted north, allowing a mass of warm water dubbed “the blob” to swell across more than 1500 kilometres of the north Pacific Ocean. Floating instruments moored to the seabed off Alaska, Washington and Oregon alerted scientists and the fishing industry to the arrival of this water, which was up to 4°C hotter than normal. They were part of the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI), five mooring arrays off the US west and east...

New Scientist 4d ago