the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
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Coming El Niño will be the strongest ever recorded, new forecast predicts
Coming El Niño will be the strongest ever recorded, new forecast predicts A June update by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggests that the coming weather event will be the strongest ever measured. This year's brewing El Niño will likely become the strongest ever recorded, a new forecast warns. New predictions by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest sea surface temperatures in a key region of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean will...
New Relative Niño index introduces more robust way to measure El Niño strength
New Relative Niño index introduces more robust way to measure El Niño strength Stephanie Baum Scientific Editor Robert Egan Associate Editor A new El Niño index that provides a more climate-robust measure of the strength of El Niño signals has been released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). With the World Meteorological Organization's recent update indicating an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026 and a 90% probability of this...
Improving the sharpness in neural network-based parametric post-processing of ensemble forecasts
arXiv:2606.08587v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Statistical post-processing has proven to be an effective tool in improving ensemble forecast of different weather variables. Case studies show that post-processing can remedy the typically underdispersive and potentially biased behaviour of the ensemble while optimizing a proper scoring rule expressing the forecast skill. The price of these positive effects is generally a deterioration in sharpness; the width of the central prediction...
El Nino is here, says European agency amid Pacific warming
El Nino has set in, the latest update from the European weather agency indicated on Thursday. According to it, temperatures in the rapidly warming Pacific Ocean crossed the 0.5°C threshold of El Nino in May. This is likely to set in motion changes in atmospheric conditions that are projected to deeply impact global weather - including the Indian monsoon - in coming months.
UN warns El Niño to bring more heat and disasters in coming months
BRUSSELS — The world must prepare for a surge in weather extremes and heat waves as a potentially exceptional El Niño emerges, the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization has warned. The WMO said on Tuesday that there’s an 80 percent chance of an El Niño — the warm phase of a natural climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean — developing between June and August, and a 90 percent chance the event will arrive by November. El Niño’s return heralds a temporary upsurge in global...