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Scalable Uncertainty Quantification for Extreme Weather Forecasting via Empirical Neural Tangent Kernels

arXiv:2606.02886v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deep learning weather models now match numerical weather prediction accuracy while running orders of magnitude faster, but produce deterministic forecasts without uncertainty estimates, a critical gap for high-stakes decisions during extreme weather events. This paper proposes Neural Tangent Kernel-based uncertainty quantification (NTK-UQ) using last-layer empirical features. Theoretical analysis predicts that UQ quality is...

arXiv Physics 6d ago

Scalable Uncertainty Quantification for Extreme Weather Forecasting via Empirical Neural Tangent Kernels

arXiv:2606.02886v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep learning weather models now match numerical weather prediction accuracy while running orders of magnitude faster, but produce deterministic forecasts without uncertainty estimates, a critical gap for high-stakes decisions during extreme weather events. This paper proposes Neural Tangent Kernel-based uncertainty quantification (NTK-UQ) using last-layer empirical features. Theoretical analysis predicts that UQ quality is...

arXiv CS 7d ago

Scalable Uncertainty Quantification for Extreme Weather Forecasting via Empirical Neural Tangent Kernels

arXiv:2606.02886v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deep learning weather models now match numerical weather prediction accuracy while running orders of magnitude faster, but produce deterministic forecasts without uncertainty estimates, a critical gap for high-stakes decisions during extreme weather events. This paper proposes Neural Tangent Kernel-based uncertainty quantification (NTK-UQ) using last-layer empirical features. Theoretical analysis predicts that UQ quality is...

arXiv CS 6d ago

Scalable Uncertainty Quantification for Extreme Weather Forecasting via Empirical Neural Tangent Kernels

arXiv:2606.02886v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning weather models now match numerical weather prediction accuracy while running orders of magnitude faster, but produce deterministic forecasts without uncertainty estimates, a critical gap for high-stakes decisions during extreme weather events. This paper proposes Neural Tangent Kernel-based uncertainty quantification (NTK-UQ) using last-layer empirical features.

arXiv Physics 7d ago

Interpretable Self-Supervised Learning via Representer Landmarks and Nystr\"om Approximation

Announce Type: replace Abstract: Self-supervised learning (SSL) learns representations from massive unlabeled data, yet the resulting models typically operate as black boxes, necessitating domain-specific explanations. We introduce KREPES, a unified framework to analytically interpret the learned representations of SSL objectives, including SimCLR, BYOL, and VICReg. By bridging empirical neural tangent kernel approximations of neural networks with the Representer Theorem for kernels, we...

arXiv CS 1d ago

Interpretable Self-Supervised Learning via Representer Landmarks and Nystr\"om Approximation

arXiv:2509.24467v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Self-supervised learning (SSL) learns representations from massive unlabeled data, yet the resulting models typically operate as black boxes, necessitating domain-specific explanations. We introduce KREPES, a unified framework to analytically interpret the learned representations of SSL objectives, including SimCLR, BYOL, and VICReg. By bridging empirical neural tangent kernel approximations of neural networks with the Representer Theorem...

arXiv CS 8d ago

Optimal Rates for Generalization of Gradient Descent Methods with Deep Neural Networks

Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent progress has been made in understanding the statistical generalization performance of gradient descent methods for overparameterized neural networks within the neural tangent kernel (NTK) regime. However, most of the existing work on regression problems is limited to shallow network architectures, leaving a notable gap in the theory of deep neural networks.

arXiv CS 2d ago

Spectral Reach: Understanding Neural Scaling as Progress into the Spectral Tail

Announce Type: cross Abstract: Neural scaling laws describe predictable power-law relationships between model size, dataset size, compute, and performance. While these laws guide the development of modern foundation models, the mechanisms underpinning them remain poorly understood, in part due to the absence of scalable analysis tools. To close this gap, we introduce "spectral position": a scalable measure of which eigenvalues of the empirical neural tangent kernel (eNTK) currently drive...

arXiv Physics 9d ago

Spectral Reach: Understanding Neural Scaling as Progress into the Spectral Tail

Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural scaling laws describe predictable power-law relationships between model size, dataset size, compute, and performance. While these laws guide the development of modern foundation models, the mechanisms underpinning them remain poorly understood, in part due to the absence of scalable analysis tools. To close this gap, we introduce "spectral position": a scalable measure of which eigenvalues of the empirical neural tangent kernel (eNTK) currently drive loss...

arXiv CS 9d ago

Generalization in Deep Neural Networks: Minimax Rates for Gradient Methods

Announce Type: cross Abstract: Understanding the generalization performance of over-parameterized neural networks has become a central topic in deep learning theory. While recent advances, particularly works under the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, have shed light on the behavior of shallow architectures, the statistical generalization properties of deep neural networks (DNNs), especially in regression tasks, remain far less understood.

arXiv CS 2d ago