What Causes COVID-19 Fear? General Drivers of Fear During a Health Crisis

arXiv:2508.20146v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic triggered not only a global health crisis but also an infodemic, where exposure to heterogeneous information sources influenced public emotional responses. In this work, we investigate the determinants of self-reported fear of infection using data from the Delphi US CTIS survey. In particular, we analyze how demographic variables, epidemiological conditions, and exposure to different information sources shape fear levels. We introduce a Probabilistic Causal Model to estimate causal relationship strengths, identifying the variables that most strongly influence fear. Our results indicate that exposure to information sources accounts for a greater proportion of the variance in fear than demographic and epidemiological variables do. We further compute the Average Treatment Effect to quantify the impact of different information sources on fear. After causal adjustment, institutional and expert-driven sources are associated with increased fear levels, whereas politicians, religious leaders, and alternative information channels are associated with reduced fear. These findings highlight both the central role of the information ecosystem in shaping emotional responses during public health crises and the value of causal inference approaches for studying behavioral responses to pandemics.