Probabilistic Causal Model
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Causal Neural Probabilistic Circuits
Announce Type: replace Abstract: Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) enhance the interpretability of end-to-end neural networks by introducing a layer of concepts and predicting the class label from the concept predictions. A key property of CBMs is that they support interventions, i.e., domain experts can correct mispredicted concept values at test time to improve the final accuracy. However, typical CBMs apply interventions by overwriting only the corrected concept while leaving other concept...
A Causal Probabilistic Framework for Perception-Informed Closed-Loop Simulation of Autonomous Driving
Announce Type: new Abstract: Software-in-the-loop (SIL) simulation is a cornerstone for the validation of modern automotive safety functions. However, many current frameworks utilize ideal sensing, which bypasses the functional insufficiencies of perception algorithms, leading to over-optimistic safety assessments. This paper proposes a perception-informed SIL testing methodology that bridges the gap between ground-truth simulation and real-world perception behavior.
Beyond Probabilistic Similarity: Structural, Temporal, and Causal Limitations of Retrieval-Augmented Generation in the Legal Domain
Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has become a standard architectural response to unreliability in legal AI, yet high-profile failures, including fabricated citations submitted to courts and anachronistic legal content presented as current, continue to appear across jurisdictions. We argue that these failures are not residual confabulations to be eliminated by scaling language models, but symptoms of an architectural mismatch between probabilistic retrieval...
Causal Atlases from Entropic Inference: Bayesian Networks beyond Optimal DAGs
Announce Type: new Abstract: Data-driven causal relationship identification is pertinent to advancing understanding of complex systems both within and beyond science. Bayesian networks offer a probabilistic method for modelling generic causal relationships via directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However, typical techniques for constructing Bayesian networks rely on optimization, which can be ill-suited for learning causal relationships because the underlying data may admit multiple chains of...
Tailoring Strictly Proper Scoring Rules for Downstream Tasks: An Application to Causal Inference
arXiv:2606.03332v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation. This disconnect is especially critical in Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) for causal inference, where propensity score errors near $0$ and $1$ often lead to high bias and variance. We propose a principled framework for deriving task-specific strictly proper scoring rules by matching the...
Caliper: Probing Lexical Anchors versus Causal Structure in LLMs
arXiv:2606.04915v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models reach 50 to 70% accuracy on causal reasoning benchmarks such as CLadder, but it is unclear whether this reflects structural reasoning or lexical pattern matching. We introduce Caliper, a controlled perturbation that replaces semantic variable names with placeholder tokens while preserving the causal graph and probabilistic specification of each question. Across nine instruction-tuned LLMs from 3.8B to 671B and three causal...
Beyond Post-hoc Explanation: Toward Glassbox AI via Probabilistic Mediation
Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models are rapidly becoming infrastructural components in high-stakes institutional settings, including public administration, legal reasoning, and healthcare, where opacity is not merely inconvenient but institutionally and legally untenable. Existing approaches to explainability are predominantly post-hoc, offering unstable, non-contestable accounts that have no formal relationship to the reasoning process that produced the output. We argue that...
SLAP: The Semantic Least Action Principle for Variational Video-Language Modeling
arXiv:2605.30750v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In the era of Large Video-Language Models (LVLMs), the computational necessity of sparse frame sampling creates a fundamental ``temporal gap'', rendering models blind to critical causal transitions. Existing solutions relying on generative hallucination (e.g., latent diffusion) or autoregressive extrapolation often fail to maintain semantic consistency over long horizons, suffering from object vanishing and energetic instability. We propose a...
What Causes COVID-19 Fear? General Drivers of Fear During a Health Crisis
arXiv:2508.20146v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic triggered not only a global health crisis but also an infodemic, where exposure to heterogeneous information sources influenced public emotional responses. In this work, we investigate the determinants of self-reported fear of infection using data from the Delphi US CTIS survey. In particular, we analyze how demographic variables, epidemiological conditions, and exposure to different information sources shape fear levels.
Causally Evaluating the Learnability of Formal Language Tasks
Announce Type: new Abstract: Language models, as multi-task learners, acquire a wide range of abilities during training. A fundamental question is how much task-specific data is needed to learn a given task. Answering this for natural language is difficult: tasks are hard to delineate and can confound one another.