Byron Buxton hits 50 HR? Hunter Goodman breaks NL ...

Each week in MLB is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true... don't be surprised! Don't be surprised ... if Minnesota Twins OF Byron Buxton hits 50 home runs this season Buxton hit 35 home runs last season, but that wasn't the biggest surprise among his numbers. No, the shock was that he managed to participate in 126 games and bat a career-high 542 times. He is 32. To say injuries have been a problem over the course of his career greatly understates the issue. Buxton has a lifetime .493 slugging percentage, which is impressive (ranked 22nd among active, qualified players), but he unfortunately became known for his lack of durability. Buxton always possessed power, and this season he seems quite focused on proving it, even more so than in 2025. This version of Buxton, who enters Thursday having played in 57 of his team's 69 games -- hey, we'll take it -- is second in baseball behind only Tampa Bay Rays OF Cedric Mullins in fly ball percentage at 56.5%. Buxton has the fourth-lowest ground ball rate at 28.6%. Put simply, Buxton is trying to hit home runs. He ranks fifth in isolated power. The fellows ahead of him draw significantly more walks. Buxton's launch angle when he hit 35 home runs last season was 17.7 degrees. Today it is 23.8 degrees. We see what he's aiming to do. Good for Buxton, right? He already has 20 home runs, just the third player in Twins history to do so through 69 team games. This strategy sure isn't working for Mullins, dragging along a sad .189/.276/.311 line with only six home runs, as he risks being dumped by the Rays, but it works for Buxton. We can't possibly know whether Buxton can bat more than 500 times for only the third time in his unique career (fingers crossed!), but we praised Los Angeles Angels OF Mike Trout for his play and availability last week, so Buxton seems a logical follow-up discussion point. Buxton was just a tad more valuable for fantasy points per game last season when he also provided 24 stolen bases (without being caught!), and he scored 97 runs, easily a career best. Buxton's current walk and whiff rates aren't markedly different from 2025, but his swing approach is. Few hitters can match his average launch angle. Buxton isn't running much (only five SB), and he isn't driving in many runs (on pace for a mere 75 RBIs!), but what can Buxton do for your fantasy team? He can hit home runs, and he is on pace for 47 of them. Let's root for 50. It's more fun. Don't be surprised ... if Colorado Rockies C Hunter Goodman breaks a home run record, but loses value Everyone remembers Seattle Mariners C Cal Raleigh breaking the MLB mark for home runs in a season by a backstop with a remarkable 60 last season. Raleigh (and his fantasy managers) are hardly enjoying the follow-up campaign, as he is hitting a sad .161 with just seven home runs and serving an IL stint for an oblique strain, but another catcher is surging in the power department. Remarkably, though, his value in points formats has not risen. We shall explain. Goodman enters Thursday having homered five times over eight June games, leading his position with 18 blasts -- a 43-HR pace. OK, so it isn't exactly the magical number of 60, but only seven catchers have ever hit 40 home runs in a season (doing so nine times). Raleigh set the record last season, while Kansas City Royals icon Salvador Perez mashed 48 in 2021. Then it is Cincinnati Reds Hall of Famer Johnny Bench with 45 in 1970, the NL record. Perhaps Goodman joins this group ... but still averages fewer fantasy points than in 2025, when he slugged 31 home runs. Goodman clearly broke out last season with a solid .278/.323/.520 line, aided by batting 579 times, fifth among catcher-eligible options (he started 39 times at DH). While he enjoyed a better OPS in home games at altitude (.881 versus .803), Goodman slugged 18 of his home runs in road games. Overall, he made contact at a reasonable 71.9% rate and his strikeout rate of 26.3% wasn't egregious, especially for him. He averaged 2.3 ESPN fantasy points per game. Only Raleigh, Milwaukee Brewers star William Contreras and Athletics starter Shea Langeliers scored more. This season, as Goodman projects to hit more home runs and perhaps flirts with the NL record, he averages 2.2 fantasy points per game, down just a tad from last season. How can a player appear to be so much better but still be a bit less valuable in fantasy? Easy. Goodman is striking out a bloated 33% of the time, his contact rate down to 63.1%. For perspective, Contreras strikes out at only a 13.6% rate, and Miami Marlins starter Liam Hicks, among the league leaders in RBIs, boasts more walks than strikeouts and a 9.4% K-rate! Home runs are huge in every fantasy league, but strikeouts matter in points formats. Goodman is on pace for one of the most impressive power seasons by a catcher in history, but he is currently just ninth at the position in fantasy points -- and he remains available in 20% of ESPN leagues. This seems nonsensical. What should we be rooting for in fantasy? We all crave power, of course, but Goodman is on pace for 205 strikeouts. Raleigh set the strikeout mark for catchers with 188 whiffs last season and is the lone catcher to whiff more than 170 times. Of the 22 MLB seasons in which a catcher hit 35 home runs, only five times did said catcher strike out 100 times or more. Goodman is making history, in more ways than the obvious one. He isn't Johnny Bench, but he is ... something! Don't be surprised ... if three Marlins finish among the top 25 overall hitters in fantasy points Speaking of Hicks and those spunky Marlins, three of their hitters are rostered in at least 85% of ESPN leagues. This might seem like no big deal, but last season, no Marlins hitter finished among the top 75 in ESPN fantasy points, so there was little interest in acquiring Marlins hitters. This season, 2B/SS Xavier Edwards, SS/2B Otto Lopez and C/1B Hicks are all among the top 30 hitters in fantasy scoring, the middle infielders among a small group batting at least .300 and Hicks delivering patience and newfound power. Edwards and Lopez have combined for only 11 home runs, but both are thriving because they avoid outs. Edwards is hitting .304, 10th in baseball. Lopez leads baseball with 91 hits and a .342 mark. Hicks hits a reasonable .265 (the MLB average is .242) with 12 home runs and is on pace for 29 home runs and 114 RBIs. The rest of the Marlins aren't helping fantasy managers much, including C Agustin Ramirez, a quality performer last season, but currently hitting .242 with four home runs at Triple-A Jacksonville. Hicks has already doubled his home run output from last season in barely half the games. There are some warning signs here, as Lopez features a bloated .389 BABIP (fourth among qualified hitters), probably will not continue with a ridiculous .478/.486/.657 line (with a .517 BABIP) versus left-handed pitchers for much longer, and his Barrel rate is low. Edwards doesn't hit many balls hard or with the barrel of the bat, either, but he does have more walks than strikeouts. Hicks has hit .210 over the past 21 days, and he rarely showed power in the minor leagues. Still, this Marlins threesome is producing numbers, each far more valuable than expected, and fantasy managers are enjoying them. Let's hope the numbers continue. Don't be surprised ... if three Cleveland Guardians finish among the top 10 pitchers in fantasy scoring Cleveland's rotation has long been a haven for fantasy managers to find numbers. With Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber and myriad others thriving over the past decade, this organization finds a way to develop pitchers. Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill, among others, were fantasy relevant in Cleveland. Ben Lively won 13 games here in 2024. Ben Lively! RHP Gavin Williams currently leads the AL in both innings pitched and strikeouts. He ranks sixth among all pitchers in fantasy points. Rookie LHP Parker Messick, despite a rough outing Wednesday versus the New York Yankees, remains among the MLB leaders with a 2.68 ERA. RHP closer Cade Smith is second to San Diego Padres RHP Mason Miller in fantasy points among relief pitchers. The economically frugal Guardians aren't in first place because of their offensive exploits. The pitching dominates, yet again. There is little in the underlying numbers for Williams and Messick that should concern fantasy managers. Williams has permitted multiple home runs in consecutive starts (each versus the Yankees) and is among the leaders in the category, but this isn't unusual for a hard-throwing power pitcher. Justin Verlander won 21 games and a Cy Young award for the 2019 Astros, despite 36 home runs allowed. Williams, boasting a 1.10 WHIP, has drastically chopped his walk rate and is among the leaders in preventing exit velocity and Barrels. Messick is less of a hard-thrower, and he utilizes his fastball less than a third of the time, opting for a heavy changeup and active slider to hold right-handed hitters to a .211/.269/.352 line. He's built like an innings eater -- and these are excellent innings. He ran into some rough luck on Wednesday, but he still mitigated major damage. When in doubt, trust Cleveland pitchers. Even RHP Tanner Bibee won last week, tossing eight shutout innings! Don't be surprised ... if Washington Nationals SS/2B Nasim Nunez makes the wrong kind of stolen base history Nunez, 25, enters Thursday leading the majors with 25 stolen bases, one more than future Hall of Famers Jose Ramirez and Bobby Witt Jr. Ramirez and Witt are awesome, top fantasy options. Nunez, in his third season with Washington, might not even be on his team much longer. In points formats, the steals cannot override the rest of the batting profile, which is awful. Nunez is hitting .203/.287/.229. Yes, he is slugging .229, easily the worst among 159 qualified batsmen. We can be brief here, because Nunez is rostered in a mere 3.8% of ESPN standard points leagues. This figure is still higher than expected, considering he has scored only 86 points this season -- barely among the top 200 hitters in this format. Why are the emerging Nationals playing Nunez? Who knows? Why are we discussing this here? Nunez may set a record for futility in conjunction with these myriad stolen bases, and we love our historic stats in baseball! Since 1920, no player has stolen 30 bases in a season with an OPS on the wrong side of .550. Nunez is at .516. Hall of Fame SS Ozzie Smith stole 28 bases with a .522 OPS for the 1979 Padres. Atlanta Braves OF Otis Nixon, with only 176 PA in 1999, stole 26 bases with a .540 OPS. Historic PR Herb Washington never actually swung a bat for the 1974 Oakland Athletics when he stole ... 29 bases. Anyway, Nunez, on pace for an astounding 57 stolen bases with brutal hitting numbers, may make baseball history!