Inside 'Burnham bounce' sending Labour past Reform – but they'll need 'more than good vibes'

Inside 'Burnham bounce' sending Labour past Reform – but they'll need 'more than good vibes' The 'Burnham bounce' comes at a time when things are also looking up for the Tories, who seem to be winning back some of the voters who fled for Nigel Farage's Reform For the first time since March last year, the Labour party is finally ahead of Reform in the polls. On Monday a poll by More In Common put Labour four percentage points ahead of Reform, with 28% to 24%. And the following day separate polling by Survation also suggested Labour under Andy Burnham has pulled ahead of Nigel Farage's party, on 26% compared to 24%. On Friday a third poll showed a five point lead, with Labour on 28% and Reform on 23%. The week also saw Labour to victory in the Greater Manchester Mayoralty election, with Bev Craig winning 309,525 votes, beating Reform's Sian Astley on 157,178. A comfortable win, it means Reform has lost six by-elections in a row, plus a Mayoral race. This “Burnham bounce” comes at a time when things are also looking up for the Tories, who seem to be winning back some of the voters who fled for Reform. The Green Party meanwhile, who had just months earlier vowed to replace Labour, have collapsed to just 8%, according to More in Common. But is the traditional two-party system, which many have written off in the past year, actually going to survive? Is Reform in freefall? Some in Government think the turnaround is down to a policy blitz from the new PM, which has seen energy bills slashed, relief for pubs, and a cap brought in on bus travel. A government source said: “Two weeks in and Andy has wasted no time. He’s put money back in people’s pockets and given families breathing space on the cost of living. “And he’s shown real courage, running towards the problems politicians have dodged for years including social care, youth unemployment, devolution.” Polling guru Sir John Curtice told this newspaper there had been a “Burnham bounce”, as well as a drop of support for Reform UK. He said: "The Burnham bounce is pretty much what you would expect given that's what has happened with every change of Prime Minister mid-parliament, apart from the exception of Liz Truss. "There is an entirely separate story which is that support for Reform is down, but that goes back to the weekend that the Sunday Times ran its story (about alleged undeclared support for Mr Farage from George Cottrell), and Farage announced he's going to fight a by-election. "Support for Reform went down to about 24% at that point, and it's still at 24% now. "Burnham inherited a party at a lower poll rating than any previous new mid-term Prime Minister, and at present his current rating, his party's current rating, is still lower than that for any previous mid-term Prime Minister after they have enjoyed a bounce. The point is Labour were in deep electoral trouble. “Burnham provides them with more or less what you would expect given historical precedent in terms of a bounce, but their party is still 10 points down on the relatively low figure that it enjoyed back in 2024." Sir John also said Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives have also been the beneficiaries - which is good news for Andy Burnham. He said: "They are at 20% on average for the first time for nearly a year. When Reform support has fallen away, of course inevitably it's the Tories who tend to profit because that's where most of them came from in the first place. "Badenoch has made progress. All of that is true. But it doesn't mean to say that the balloon has disappeared. "I can see Reform going back down to the 15% that they got in 2024, but I don't think they're going to disappear." He said it shows the two big parties - Labour and the Conservatives - are shoring up their position, but Britain’s electoral system means it is never quite that simple. Professor Tim Bale, of Queen Mary University of London said Labour would need more to maintain the poll lead. He said: "If Labour are sensible they should be expressing no more than cautious optimism. Those poll leads are narrow and may well be as much about Farage running into trouble and the shine coming off Polanski as they are the about the change of PM. “True, getting shot of Starmer seems to have persuaded voters to give the government a second look. But whether they're prepared to give it a second chance will depend on whether Burnham can turn the sense of optimism and purpose he's injected in the short term into tangible progress on the cost of living, NHS waiting lists and times, and small boats in the medium and long term. “The vibes have certainly improved - and that's reflected in the polls. But if Labour's narrow lead is to last - and to grow - they'll need more than vibes." One Tory source put the turnaround down to Kemi Badenoch's improved confidence at PMQs and during interviews, as well as a series of scandals forcing voters away from Reform UK. Kevin Hollinrake MP, Chairman of the Conservative Party, said: “Under Kemi’s leadership, the Conservative Party has turned a corner. “Meanwhile, Nigel Farage is more interested in spending his summer fighting a fake by-election to boost his own ego and distract from Reform’s mounting scandals." A Tory source added: “We have turned a bit of a corner, we have a popular leader, we are talking seriously about the issues that matter to the country. “Reform and Nigel are not coming across well, there’s the £5 million, the whole by-election is a total farce, and that’s basically the reason. They are self-imploading while have come into a period of pretty good form.” They also claimed the party was “better off without the defectors”, following a series of high-profile departures. The source said: “You don’t have people like Robert Jenrick sloping around. They have a massive air of sleaze about them, Jenrick is being investigated by police, Richard Tice is being investigated by the police, and Farage by the parliamentary standards commissioner. “There are literally five millions questions about how they are financed and who their donors are. People do care, trust in politics matters.”