State of the Patriots: How will New England respond this season to its Super Bowl loss?

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- The New England Patriots didn't even need to play a preseason game before meeting their new reality. The Indianapolis Colts arrived at the Patriots' practice fields last week -- where the energy of 10,000-plus cheering and booing fans put a palpable football buzz in the air -- and turned up the intensity. When Indianapolis intercepted quarterback Drake Maye on his final pass then carved up the Patriots' top defense with ease to score a touchdown, the Colts celebrated as if they had won something big. "It's being able to go against the former AFC champions and measure where we are," Colts safety Cam Bynum explained. Ready or not, New England, this is what life is like at the top of the AFC. The Patriots are no longer the upstart; instead, just like the majority of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady years, they are the team others in the conference are targeting after their surprise run to Super Bowl LX, which they lost decisively to the Seattle Seahawks 29-13. A lot has happened since then, including an offseason dominated by coach Mike Vrabel's personal travails, a long-rumored trade for star wide receiver A.J. Brown and nearly unprecedented roster turnover for a conference champion. It set the stage for the question many are asking: Are the Patriots primed to succumb to a tougher schedule or will Vrabel's relentless commitment to establishing team identity deliver another surprising run to the Super Bowl? "Having a taste of that game, being there, feeling that, feeling all the feels when you don't get what you want, it makes you hungry," New England linebacker and team captain Robert Spillane said of the Super Bowl defeat. "It makes you second-guess everything you've done. It makes you look for a little bit more of an edge." Indianapolis gave the Patriots an early taste of how opponents will be raising their intensity level against them, even if DraftKings Sportsbook doesn't view New England as the AFC favorite at +1600 (tied for third, behind the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens). But the Patriots have a chance to prove what kind of team they will be when they open the season in Seattle on Sept. 9 (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC). "Knowing where you are, and what type of team you are, is very important," said fifth-year cornerback and punt returner Marcus Jones. "We are the team being hunted. We have to wear that chip on our shoulder every time we get out there." MAYE SAT AT the interview podium for 16 minutes following February's Super Bowl loss in Santa Clara, California. His eyes welled up. His voice cracked at times. The first thing he said: "It hurts." The heartbreak set the stage for his offseason, which was already being mapped out that night. "That's what fuels you," Maye said. "I think that's the biggest thing about life. You're going to have times like this. It's how you bounce back." Vrabel kept repeating "307" to players in the aftermath, a reference to the number of days they had been together as a team and how far they had come in a short time. He told them to be prepared for a quick turnaround for the start of the voluntary offseason program in late April. By April, the Patriots were a much different team, a result of being aggressive spenders in free agency for a second straight year. Former Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs was a big catch and given a four-year, $68 million free agent deal after the team released 2025 leading receiver Stefon Diggs. At outside linebacker, veteran Dre'Mont Jones (three years, $36.5 million) was prioritized over retaining pass rusher K'Lavon Chaisson (career-high 7.5 sacks in 2025), in part because Jones is a sturdier option against the run. Veteran safety Kevin Byard, who led the NFL with seven interceptions in 2025 with the Chicago Bears, was considered a coup and the reason the Patriots elected not to re-sign starter Jaylinn Hawkins (now with the Ravens). Guard Alijah Vera-Tucker also was brought aboard (three years, $42 million), which led to a trade of starting center Garrett Bradbury (1,072 snaps played) to the Bears and 2025 third-round pick Jared Wilson sliding over to replace him. Fullback Reggie Gilliam (three years, $10.8 million) was another early signing, which highlighted the desire to become a tougher, more physical team in the run game and on kickoff returns -- roles in which Gilliam excelled with the Bills. After what seemed like a successful free agency, the Patriots were preparing for the NFL draft when the discourse surrounding the team and its head coach took a turn. On April 7, the New York Post published pictures of Vrabel and The Athletic NFL reporter Dianna Russini at a luxury resort in Arizona, appearing to show the two, who are both married, embracing and holding hands days before the NFL spring league meetings. Russini resigned from The Athletic on April 14. One week later, Vrabel addressed reporters for the first time, calling it a "personal and private matter" and saying, "I've had some difficult conversations with people I care about -- with my family, the organization, the coaches, the players." As part of the fallout, Vrabel was away from the team on April 25, the third and final day of the NFL draft, as he said he was beginning the process of seeking counseling. The Patriots made six of their nine overall selections that day with the coach absent. They aren't relying on major contributions from their draft class, as Utah offensive tackle Caleb Lomu (first round, No. 28), Illinois outside linebacker Gabe Jacas (second round, No. 55) and Notre Dame tight end Eli Raridon (third round, No. 95) currently project as top backups and Wake Forest cornerback Karon Prunty (fifth round, No. 171) as a core special teams player. Vrabel's situation lingered throughout May before the Patriots made headlines once again -- this time trading for Brown, the Philadelphia Eagles' star wide receiver. Speculation of a trade had been stirring for months, but it was officially announced June 1. The Patriots sent their 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth-round pick to deliver Maye a clear-cut No. 1 target and address perhaps the top deficiency on the roster. Brown, who grew up a Patriots fan, instantly shifted the energy around the team with his arrival. Smiling at the interview dais, he famously said, "Obviously, I know this ain't heaven, but it's close to it." Offensive tackle Morgan Moses, New England's oldest (35) and longest-tenured player (13th season), sounded optimistic that the Patriots can turn the page on last season and build with new additions. "You live and you learn. What we did last was successful, but obviously, we didn't walk off with the [Lombardi] Trophy like we wanted to," he said. "You gotta learn how to lose before you can win. I think we've digested that well over the offseason and coming together, adding new pieces." WITH PLENTY OF new faces in the locker room, Vrabel sought to continue what worked well in 2025: building a team identity. On Aug. 4 in the Patriots' new 160-seat auditorium, he stood in front of his players and talked about oranges and how the fruit relates to what he wants the 2026 Patriots to ideally become. Yes, oranges. Vrabel explained: When an orange is squeezed, everyone knows what it creates. So, when the Patriots are in the juicer, such as in a competitive game in a pressure-filled fourth quarter, can they become a team that oozes the ingredients most important to Vrabel? "Whatever you squeeze is what you are. That's you. He's trying to pull that out of us," veteran punter Bryce Baringer said. "He made the analogy if someone squeezes an orange, watermelon juice isn't going to come out. So, when we're squeezed, we have to be that team; it needs to be those four pillars of our identity." The four pillars haven't changed since last season: effort and finish; ball security and disruption; details, techniques and fundamentals; and making great decisions. But a significant number of the players hearing Vrabel's message have changed. Unlike most other conference champions, the Patriots have turned over nearly half their roster to create a rare mix: a significantly different team despite entering the 2026 campaign carrying the AFC's bull's-eye. Of the 91 players on the current roster, 43 weren't with the team last season. In comparison, of the 90 players currently on the Seahawks' roster, 25 weren't with the team last season. Furthermore, the Patriots lost 14 players who started at least one game for them last season. The Seahawks lost only five. If that holds in the regular season, it would be the fourth-most starters lost by a reigning AFC/NFC champion in the past decade, behind the 2020 Chiefs (20), the 2024 Eagles (19) and the 2017 Patriots (16), according to ESPN Research. With such turnover, it's no wonder Vrabel said he told the 2026 team the same thing he did the 2025 team at this time last year: The goal is to earn a role, build a team and prepare to win. "I don't think the messaging will be much different. It's got to be consistent," Vrabel said. "We have to be able to build each and every year, to start over and figure out the things that we do well, what we like and what the players have confidence in. And we have to be able to push the envelope on some things that we weren't very good at last year." In total, the Patriots have lost players who started a cumulative 104 games last season -- third most among the past 20 Super Bowl teams, behind the 2022 Eagles (116) and the 2020 Chiefs (105). Neither the 2022 Eagles nor the 2020 Chiefs returned to the Super Bowl the following season, which might be an ominous sign for New England. But at the same time, what makes the Patriots' roster turnover unique is that most of it was by choice. "We were very honest in our evaluations with what we needed even though we had a successful season last year," executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf said on Sirius XM NFL Radio. "We were able to target and acquire some of the guys we coveted." The new and improved roster was built in Vrabel's image, which according to Wolf means "physical, tough, play through the whistle, block for the guy without the ball and who are great teammates." "[Vrabel] espouses that every single day; it's real and not just something he says. He wakes up every morning and thinks about this identity, and that permeates through the building," Wolf said in late July. "We all think that way now. We're not going to bring in guys that don't fit those characteristics or guys we don't think can improve in those characteristics. It's made our job easier on the scouting side." SINCE PURCHASING THE PATRIOTS in 1994, Robert Kraft has often said his expectation entering a season is to make the playoffs because anything is possible at that point. The 2001 New England team that shocked the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI was the perfect example. Until Kraft noted a more recent occurrence in a July appearance on ESPN's "First Take." "If you make the playoffs, like we saw last year, no one would have predicted [the Patriots to have been in the Super Bowl]," he said. The Patriots have acknowledged making it to Super Bowl LX put them ahead of their own projection in Vrabel's first year as head coach. An MVP-worthy season from Maye and an improved defense was aided, in part, by playing a fourth-place schedule. The Patriots went 14-3 while playing the weakest schedule in the past quarter decade in terms of opponents' combined records. Their 17 opponents (counting each divisional opponent twice) went a combined 113-176, for a .391 win percentage. Since 1980, New England was just the fourth team to play a schedule against teams that had a combined winning percentage of less than .400 and the first since 1999, when both the Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars did it. In 2026, the Patriots will face the league's sixth-hardest schedule based on opponents' 2025 winning percentage. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), meanwhile, rates the schedule more favorably (23rd). Among the primary challenges are having seven of the first 11 games on the road. "You got something to chase, and I think that's one of the best things about experiencing it," Maye said of the heartache surrounding the Super Bowl, after which he had acknowledged receiving a pain-killing injection in his right throwing shoulder. "We have to be even better because our standard from last year, if we just play the same way, we won't make it there." The FPI, which is a measure of team strength meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward for the rest of the season, doesn't currently view the Patriots as likely to make it back. New England is ranked 14th overall and seventh in the AFC, behind the Bills (2), Ravens (3), Los Angeles Chargers (7), Chiefs (9), Cincinnati Bengals (12) and Houston Texans (13). Vrabel said he has yet to use those types of rankings as motivation for his team. Others view the Patriots among the elite with cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who is still negotiating a contract extension, headlining the defense and Maye -- runner-up for the NFL's 2025 Most Valuable Player Award -- running the offense. The quarterback enters his third pro season and second in coordinator Josh McDaniels' offense, which will prove critical for his growth. "Drake should have won the MVP last year," ESPN analyst Booger McFarland said. "You add A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs to what they already have ... and with Vrabes, he's one of the best coaches in football when it comes to X's and O's, techniques and the winning formula. For my money, he's the best there is." Former NFL executive Pat Kirwan, who visited Patriots training camp as part of his work on SiriusXM NFL Radio, said, "Most of the spring we all talked about, 'Well, Buffalo is going to take the [AFC East] division back.' I would be real careful about that one." How the Patriots respond to their standing as defending AFC champions, along with good fortune in terms of injuries, will be among the key factors. That's what Patriots Hall of Fame wide receiver Troy Brown remembers about the 2002 campaign -- the season the Patriots had turned from lovable underdogs to not-ready-for-the-bull's-eye AFC standard-bearer -- and how it caught some off guard. "There were things that were taken for granted, almost that we would be back in the Super Bowl again without realizing what the process was on that. That probably came with some immaturity, and it proved much more difficult than we thought it would be," Brown said of a 9-7 campaign in which the team didn't qualify for the playoffs. "You can play a team that is 0-6 and you're going to get their best shot. That's just the way it is." The present-day Patriots have talked about the importance of responding to that challenge. Now, they aim to prove it with actions. Marcus Jones, the slot corner and return specialist, believes they have the right mix in the locker room to deliver. "I feel like it's been a great response. We feel we need to prove more and more every single day," he said. "There's nobody in the building that thinks about complacency."