Most 'intense' El Nino in living memory could bring global storms, drought and record heat

Most 'intense' El Nino in living memory could bring global storms, drought and record heat The Met Office has warned the powerful El Nino could disrupt weather around the world and help push global temperatures to record levels. The most “intense” El Nino in living memory could bring storms, drought and record heat around the world, the Met Office has warned. El Nino is a natural climate pattern and is typically declared when sea temperatures in a key part of the tropical Pacific rise at least 0.5C above the long-term average, affecting rainfall patterns and temperatures across the globe. Sea temperatures are forecast to rise more than 3C above average in the coming months, making this year’s event “the largest since the 19th century”, according to the Met Office. They are already more than 2C above normal. If they climb beyond 3C later this year, the Met Office says it would be unprecedented in records dating back to 1950. During El Nino, winds that usually push warm water westwards across the Pacific can weaken, allowing warmer water to spread east and release more heat into the atmosphere. This can shift rainfall and weather patterns across large parts of the world. It can increase the risk of drought in the tropics, southern Africa and north-east Australia, while north-western Europe – including the UK – is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions in the coming autumn and early winter, the forecaster said. There are already signs of unusual weather patterns around the world, with monsoon rainfall in India running below average and El Nino conditions capable of suppressing hurricane activity across the tropical Atlantic. Unusually warm water has also been recorded deeper beneath the Pacific, with temperatures around 100 metres below the surface up to 8C above normal in some places. The heat could provide further fuel for the El Nino as it strengthens. “We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event," Professor Adam Scaife, head of long range forecasting at the Met Office, said. “I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.” He added: “A typical El Nino leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between 1C to 2C, with 2C being a really big event. “This implies that if the forecast is accurate – and other forecast systems show similar extreme values – then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences.” El Nino events can also push up global average temperatures, with the Met Office forecasting that 2027 is very likely to become the warmest year on record. “During large El Nino events significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere leading to an increase in global average temperature, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Nino,” Met Office Science Fellow Dr Nick Dunstone said. “Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed plus 1.5C above the pre-industrial period." Scientists have not established that climate change is making El Nino events more frequent or more intense. But the phenomenon is now occurring against the backdrop of a warmer world, which can add to the impact of extreme weather. The effects of each El Nino can vary, meaning the weather impacts are not guaranteed to be the same in every part of the world. Professor Stephen Belcher, the Met Office’s chief of science and technology, said: “This summer we have experienced heat waves across Europe reminding us of the effects of climate change, this large El Nino is a reminder that natural variations in the climate system are also at play, adding to the stresses of climate change.” The effects could extend beyond weather and temperature records. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization has warned El Nino could threaten tens of millions of people in vulnerable countries with crisis-level acute food insecurity. In the UK, the event could increase the chances of a wetter and stormier autumn and early winter after months of unusually hot and dry weather. Following an emergency meeting to discuss the heatwave last week, Prime Minister Andy Burnham warned: “We might be in for a wet autumn and winter straight after this, because of El Nino and some of the issues there, which was reported to Cobra.” Almost three-quarters (71.3%) of England and all of Wales are currently in drought, with reservoir levels falling to 62.6% – 16.3% lower than expected for this time of year, according to Defra. The National Drought Group said current forecasts do not suggest there will be enough rainfall this autumn to drive a full recovery before December, with drought conditions potentially continuing into the new year.