Super El Niño could lead to mega CO2 emissions from Indonesian fires

Intense wildfires burning in Indonesia have likely been ramped up by the building Super El Niño – and could get much worse if this El Niño event continues to intensify to the record-smashing levels currently forecast. “The fire emissions that we’re estimating are, for the time of year, comparable to previous really big El Niño years,” says Mark Parrington at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, who tracks wildfire emissions as part of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. Wildfires do normally occur in the region between August to October, but are more intense in El Niño years. “Fire has certainly been greatly enhanced in those previous El Niño years,” says Parrington. Advertisement During the strong El Niño in 1997 and 1998, wildfires in Indonesia emitted as much as 2.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, equivalent to around a third of annual fossil fuel emissions at the time. That led to a big jump in global CO2 levels – the key driver of global heating – as well as being disastrous for people and wildlife in the region. During another strong El Niño in 2015, wildfires in Indonesia emitted an estimated 1.5 gigatonnes of CO2. The 2015 and 1997 El Niño are the strongest on record, but the developing Super El Niño could far exceed them. “This is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts,” Adam Scaife at the UK Met Office said in a statement released today. “If the forecast is accurate, then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences.” Definitions vary, but El Niños are generally defined as a sea surface temperature 0.5°C above normal in part of the Pacific. During 1997 and 2015, temperatures in this region were more than 2°C above normal, and the Met Office is forecasting the temperature there could exceed 3°C around October. If the El Niño is as extreme as the Met Office is suggesting, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the wildfires produced emissions totals similar to those that occurred in previous strong El Niños, says Parrington. In Indonesia, there have been wildfires on the island of Borneo and in the provinces of West and Central Kalimantan. Smoke pollution has led to school closures and is affecting other countries such as Singapore and Malaysia. Ground-based sensors in the region are measuring levels of smoke that have previously been detected only in El Niño years, says Parrington. “And we’re still at the start of the season.” In much of the region, thick layers of peat have built up beneath rainforests over millennia, storing vast amounts of carbon. The clearing of forests leads to peat drying out, making it more likely to catch fire during hot, dry conditions. Peat fires are very difficult to put out, as they can burn underground. Next year, there could be particularly intense fires in the Amazon and parts of North America, says Parrington. The developing Super El Niño will also have many other impacts on weather around the world, bringing heat and drought to areas such as Australia, and more rainfall and flooding to others. Its impact on Europe is uncertain, but Scaife said there could be increased rainfall and storminess during the autumn in the UK. It isn’t clear if global heating is making stronger El Niños more likely, but what is clear is that when El Niños occur in a hotter world, their impacts are amplified.