'Vladimir Putin's threats against the UK are serious - he's warning Britain that it's a target'

Putin’s trademark confident smirk as he threatens UK interests supporting Ukraine carries a deeply serious message to Britain - you are a target. It follows Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s green-lighting Storm Shadow missile blueprints to be handed over to Kyiv, a major blow to the Kremlin’s war effort and it is a test of our resolve. The UK is the principal and most vocal ally for Ukraine and has underlined this with Burnham’s recent visit to Kyiv, re-emphasising Britain’s determined support for Kyiv. At the same time, he knows he cannot overtly threaten the US, which despite President Trump’s mercurial view to NATO, remains the most powerful alliance military. And he also views the UK as the junior and less well-protected partner to America, with an increasingly uncomfortable diplomatic relationship with the States. Russian operatives have blatantly committed murder on UK streets with the 2018 Novichok attack in Salisbury and the poisoning of ex-KGB man Alexander Litvinenko in 2006. And there have been many other mysterious deaths of Russian dissidents and acts of attempted sabotage throughout the UK throughout Putin’s rule. So UK security services will not ignore the threat, no matter how subtle or otherwise the message is, and it will spark discomfort within the government. Such seemingly casual threats are low-cost to Putin and likely will be without consequence, but they will not have been uttered without careful consideration. The arms length nature of Britain’s support for Ukraine is shortening and we are becoming more overtly involved - especially since the Storm Shadow approval. Putin knows his people and his inner-circle are watching him carefully like wolves sensing weakness in the alpha male and his war in Ukraine is failing drastically. There are increasing reports and claims from within Russia that he is becoming remote and paranoid that moves may be made against him over his catastrophic war not going well. He needs to make these threats to look strong and confident as he cares more about how he is seen in Russia than anything else. His words may also carry a message that he knows or suspects, rightly or wrongly, that Britain is in the background supporting Russia militarily in ways that are not openly discussed. Russia knows Ukraine could not prevail without outside support and he wants it to stop, whilst making threats that fall short of overt military action, landing just below the threshold for all-out war with the UK. In the UK, we might believe the threats are largely pointless because they will not influence policy, but they do intimidate, they do cost UK tax payers in bolstering security. Putin may consider the threats are good optics for his inner-circle and Russian people because it serves his strongman ego. To the Kremlin, all of this is a low-cost gesture to Russia, just words, but the long-run is that the UK will be affected by it in many ways. At enormous cost the UK government is already making ready long-term for conflict of some kind in Europe and possibly terrorist acts against UK interests abroad or at home. One of the biggest headaches for the UK government in its policy towards dealing with Putin is how to deliver to the Kremlin consequences beyond sanctions and military support to Kyiv. As Putin continues to prod the UK, jabbing away to get a reaction, to test our resolve, the time when these consequences will become overt and aggressive is coming. Whether we are approaching a wider war in Europe, Kremlin-sponsored terrorism within the UK or some other sinister act remains to be seen but it is clearly on Putin’s mind. And he is becoming desperate for a result, an act of aggression he can show off to Kremlin hawks - as his military losses to death and injury on the frontline hurtle towards 1.5 million.