Temperature check: alarm as prediction markets lean into weather and climate bets

The Guardian Environment Wednesday 02 September 2026, 15:00 UTC By Oliver Milman 1 min read

Key Points

Climate experts warn US Kalshi and Polymarket users are ‘gamifying disasters’ as they bet on events like heatwaves and daily temperaturesOnline prediction markets, saturated by money staked on sport, crypto and politics, have now set their sights on a promising new area of growth: betting on the future livability of the planet itself. The rise of gamified predictions on the unfolding climate crisis, and shorter-term weather forecasts, has been underscored by a new deal that allows Kalshi, a...

Climate experts warn US Kalshi and Polymarket users are ‘gamifying disasters’ as they bet on events like heatwaves and daily temperatures

Online prediction markets, saturated by money staked on sport, crypto and politics, have now set their sights on a promising new area of growth: betting on the future livability of the planet itself.

The rise of gamified predictions on the unfolding climate crisis, and shorter-term weather forecasts, has been underscored by a new deal that allows Kalshi, a leading online financial exchange, to access data from the Weather Company, owner of the Weather Channel, to verify weather-related betting outcomes.

Climate (ORG) US Kalshi (PERSON) Polymarket (PERSON) Kalshi (ORG) the Weather Company (ORG) the Weather Channel (ORG)

Originally published by The Guardian Environment Read original →

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