AUKUS architects say pact on track at five-year mark, but facing challenges

AUKUS on track but faces big challenges at five-year mark, its architects say In short: Former top defence officials from Australia, the US, and the UK have assessed the state of the AUKUS pact five years after it was announced. The pact aims to arm Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, but the slow pace of submarine construction in the US has long been a concern. "One of the most important consequences of AUKUS is that it has forced us to look deeply at our submarine capacity and infrastructure," former US deputy secretary of state Kurt Campbell said. AUKUS has forced the United States to confront its "profoundly lacking" capacity to build and maintain naval submarines, but recent progress should inspire confidence in the defence deal, a former top White House official says. Five years after the pact between Australia, the US and the UK was announced, three of its key architects have assessed its progress towards its goals, which include arming Australia with nuclear-powered submarines to deter Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific. Former US deputy secretary of state Kurt Campbell, Australia's former defence secretary Greg Moriarty and former UK national security adviser Sir Stephen Lovegrove all said they were content with what had been achieved so far. But they also conceded AUKUS still faced major challenges, particularly in relation to workforce shortages and submarine construction delays. "I myself remember facing challenges in this process, thinking we'd never get over them, that it was just too hard,"Mr Campbell said. "Too much bureaucratic, you know, sticking points, not enough money, not enough political will. Each time we have mounted them." One question that has persistently dogged AUKUS is whether the US can deliver on its plan to transfer several Virginia-class submarines to Australia by the 2030s. For years, US shipyards have been building the boats far too slowly to maintain the American fleet at target levels. That has fuelled concerns the US will not have submarines to spare for Australia. "One of the most important consequences of AUKUS is that it has forced us to look deeply at our submarine capacity and infrastructure," Mr Campbell said. "In many respects, it was profoundly lacking in the ability to get subs under repair, back out at sea, to be able to turn out new submarines. "But the fact that we've gone so far gives me that extra confidence that what lies ahead, we will be able to surmount those challenges. "We have both focused on AUKUS, but we have also, I think, turned our attention more internally to our national sovereign submarine capabilities, and we are much more serious about that at a national level than we were four or five years ago." Efforts to speed up shipbuilding Some analysis suggests submarine production in the US is slowing rather than speeding up. The US is investing heavily to improve the rate of construction, and Australia is contributing more than $4 billion to the effort. "The Trump administration has driven enormous investment in the submarine industrial base," said Mr Moriarty, who is now Australia's ambassador in Washington. "It has taken several steps to accelerate shipbuilding capability." In Australia, Mr Moriarty said, skills shortages remained a significant obstacle. But hundreds of Australian personnel had now been trained in the US, as well as on visiting American and British submarines in Western Australia, he said. "There's always heartaches and headaches, but when I think back to five years ago, I'm really pleasantly surprised at how much we've achieved." The panel discussion was hosted by Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies. The think tank also produced its own analysis to mark AUKUS's fifth anniversary. It noted that the pact's first years were "mainly about building institutions and infrastructure, both of which are now considerable". "AUKUS has, by any fair accounting, made real progress — more than sceptics on either side of the Pacific predicted,"the CSIS report said. "But turning a fifth anniversary into something that lasts still requires, as Australians are fond of saying, some hard yards. "What has not yet happened — what could not yet have happened, given the timelines involved — is the actual accumulation of boats, sensors, and presence sufficient to create the dilemmas [for adversaries] the partnership was designed to pose. "That is the conversation still to be had in Washington, Canberra, and London."