'Russia loves to cause chaos in the UK - but all-out war may be triggered by one bad move from Putin'

Quietly, behind the scenes the government is making long-term plans to prepare the UK for war. By 2035 Britain’s defence spending will increase by 3.5% after years of our military being degraded. Officials are running a determined campaign to ensure UK resilience, calmly preparing households for an attack. This includes advice to store water long-term, to prepare for weeks of food shortages in a bid steadily to put homes in a position of preparedness - without sparking panic. Russia loves to spark panic inside the UK, societal break-down and disharmony, as it has done with web bots for years and causing panic will not help. The UK government has a website called “Get Prepared for Emergencies” in which it cites natural or deliberate disasters, storing food and water, having a plan for the household. Everything points towards a general move towards making ready for some kind of prolonged period of unpleasantness. And there is one possible miscalculation by Putin which could trigger UK and NATO direct military action against Russia, which we will come to. Without this none of the above points directly, emphatically, to the imminent onset of war with Russia, simply because Russia is not in the position to be involved in another one. War cannot be totally discounted but there are many reasons why it is unlikely. It is losing its war in Ukraine, a conflict which many experts declared would be over within days, tanks rolling to Kyiv and the toppling of Zelensky’s government. It did not happen and even despite American flip-flopping on support for Ukraine the rest of NATO is rallying. If he didn’t know how weak the Russian military is against a determined defence force before the Ukraine full-scale invasion, Putin must surely know by now. The alliance is at least twice as strong as Russia militarily and it is becoming more so. Moscow has suffered at least 1.5 million casualties in its war in Ukraine and its public, blighted by fuel shortages, is growing increasingly unhappy with Putin’s war. Putin’s United Russia has today won the latest elections by 57%, a resounding defeat for the opposition, except that an effective one does not exist because it has not been allowed to. This is not a measure of support for Putin’s war. European intelligence officials have suggested Russia may make its move against NATO within months, rather than years. Even then we are not talking about World War III - that would require a perfect storm of Iran becoming involved, China following, perhaps North Korea and other countries choosing sides - the schisms are there but not the conditions. Britain, as the main ally of Ukraine and the perceived junior partner to America, is a natural target for Russian military or more likely terrorist aggression. Moscow’s desire for attacks creating destabilisation within the UK exists, perhaps in the form of sabotage, hitting infrastructure, even assassinations, as it has done before. Hence the warnings about having drinking water and food in supply, although many of these non-lethal attacks, such as cyber interference are about testing our resolve, asking what we are going to do about it, just like a playground bully who has not yet suffered consequences. A senior UK source told me recently that they did not see conventional warfare with Russia as a likelihood but we could see “hybrid attacks or worse attacks on European countries.” “Hybrid attacks” are attacks that usually fall below the threshold for all-out war. Or, the source suggested: “There could well be attacks in eastern Europe.” These would be sabotage, espionage, cyber war, perhaps even a ‘false flag’ attack triggering a partial ground incursion into a NATO country. So how could Britain and the rest of NATO be forced into war with Russia? Imagine if Russian hackers broke the food supply chain with massive cyber interference, then hit our water supply, followed by an infrastructure such as flooding protection, triggering spiralling events that caused deaths and the threat of more. Imagine the assassination of a public figure that pointed firmly towards Russia, even though it may have employed the services of a criminal. Perhaps it could launch a series of aggressive actions against the UK in a bid to test our resolve the effects of which had been under-estimated by Putin’s intelligence service desperate to please the boss. Our source, who in a previous life spent years in the shadows working against Russian aggression, told us: “This scenario, such as a series of disastrous and highly-damaging events would cause a cumulative effect of pushing the UK reaction above the threshold for war and the UK, with NATO backing, would probably have to act militarily. “Putin hates consequences and he would then be made to face them as Britain was forced to act in defence of its homeland. “This is the real danger, that we are pushed so far that expulsions of Russian diplomats, heavy sanctions, all the things that have happened before just don’t work. “It might not be a declaration of war against Russia but we might then find ourselves involved in one. “And I don’t think Putin wants that either. He wants victory without consequences - he just has to know that we would have to hit him with them if he continues with these provocations.”