Real or not? We rated the sustainability of 32 NFL surprise trends and stats through Week 2

We're two weeks into the 2026 NFL season, which means we know everything about all 32 teams. Just kidding. But narratives are beginning to take hold. Which early trends will stick and which will dissipate as the season goes on? The eight remaining 2-0 teams probably won't all be playoff-bound, and the eight 0-2 teams are not all doomed. And some players have had shocking performances so far -- good and bad -- and they won't all continue. So, what's real and what's a mirage? We tasked our 32 team reporters with identifying a trend or a stat that sticks out for every team through two weeks and sizing up whether it is likely to continue over the rest of the season. Jump to: ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF SEA | TB | TEN | WSH Buffalo Bills The early surprise: Greg Rousseau is emerging as a top-tier pass rusher. The verdict: Real. Rousseau has 4.0 sacks and nine pressures. Since 2018, the only other edge rushers to start a season with that many sacks and pressures through two games have been Aidan Hutchinson (2024), T.J. Watt (2023) and Chandler Jones (2021). That's All-Pro company, and Rousseau is doing it without fluke sacks; only one of his takedowns registers among the 20 quickest sacks from snap to tackle. His sacks appear to be products of good all-around play, not one-off big moments. -- Nick Suss Miami Dolphins The early surprise: The Dolphins have allowed points on 10 of their 17 defensive possessions. The verdict: Real. Miami has yet to register a defensive stop in the first half through its first two games, and it allowed the 49ers to score touchdowns on their first five possessions in Week 2. Teams likely won't keep scoring against the Dolphins at that rate. But until first-year coach and defensive playcaller Jeff Hafley can figure out a way to manufacture a pass rush, a young Dolphins secondary will likely keep getting attacked by opposing quarterbacks. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques New England Patriots The early surprise: Drake Maye has four interceptions on throws of 15-plus yards. The verdict: Mirage. This matches Maye's total from all of 2025 on such throws and is the second-highest total through the first two games of a season since ESPN began tracking in 2006. Part of that is facing the Seahawks and the Steelers, two of the NFL's best defenses. Being without top wide receiver A.J. Brown (ankle) is a factor too. Maye's accuracy and decision-making, which are his calling cards, should improve with more time on task after not playing in the preseason. -- Mike Reiss New York Jets The early surprise: The defense is No. 1 in yards allowed (197 per game). The verdict: Mirage. No doubt, the defense has improved from last season (25th), but No. 1 in the league? Let's tap the brakes. The Jets have yet to face a top-shelf offense. Ordinarily, the Packers could be in that category, but they were compromised without running back Josh Jacobs (commissioner exempt list) and a patchwork offensive line. Despite an overtime loss, the Jets held Green Bay to 199 yards. We'll know a lot more about New York's defense on Sunday against the Lions. -- Rich Cimini AFC NORTH Baltimore Ravens The early surprise: Lamar Jackson leads the NFL with 10 yards per passing attempt. The verdict: Real. One of the buzz words for new Ravens offensive coordinator Declan Doyle is explosiveness. So, it's not a surprise that Jackson tops the league with an average of 10 yards per attempt. He has completed four passes of 40 yards or longer, connecting with Zay Flowers (twice), Chris Moore and Devontez Walker. The QB is far ahead of last season's pace, when he totaled six passes of 40 yards or longer in 10 games. -- Jamison Hensley Cincinnati Bengals The early surprise: The Bengals' defense is putting pressure on QBs. The verdict: Real. Cincinnati wanted its defensive line to be a true strength of the team. And all the offseason moves have made the intended impact. According to ESPN Research, the Bengals rank fifth in team pressure rate (40.2%) and are fourth in QB hit rate (20.5%). And it's not just Dexter Lawrence II creating chaos. Free agent signee Boye Mafe is tied for fourth in the NFL in pressures (nine), while Cashius Howell is tied for the most pressures by any rookie (seven). -- Ben Baby Cleveland Browns The early surprise: Jared Verse has recorded zero pressures. The verdict: Mirage. It's not the start Verse had hoped for with his new team, but opportunities have been lacking for the two-time Pro Bowler. Verse's snaps have been limited through two games; he has had only 43 pass rush snaps. Much of his team debut in Week 1 was spent facing a large deficit, but his average get-off time through two games -- 0.77 seconds, according to NFL Next Gen Stats -- would be a career-best mark. If Cleveland can play more close games, such as its Week 2 upset over the Buccaneers, Verse should get more chances, and those pass rush numbers should rise. -- Daniel Oyefusi Pittsburgh Steelers The early surprise: T.J. Watt is back to his dominant ways. The verdict: Real. Watt has been quick to remind the NFL that even after two down seasons, he's still otherworldly. Reinvigorated by defensive coordinator Patrick Graham's scheme, the 31-year-old Watt is playing fewer snaps (thanks to Graham's carefully monitored rotation) and varying his rush locations. A better rested and more unpredictable Watt? That's a nightmare for O-coordinators. Through two weeks, his 3.5 sacks is second only to Buffalo's Rousseau. Watt also has as many touchdowns (one) as the Steelers' offense through two weeks. -- Brooke Pryor AFC SOUTH Houston Texans The early surprise: The Texans' run game is struggling again. The verdict: Real. Houston's running back duo is having issues generating an efficient offense. David Montgomery is averaging 2.7 yards per carry, and Woody Marks has a 2.9 average through two weeks. That's not all on them, though. The O-line hasn't consistently provided lanes for them; that's why it feels real. Sometimes, Montgomery and Marks have to fight for every yard while getting hit in the backfield. Against the Bengals, quarterback C.J. Stroud led Houston in rushing yards (29); that's never a recipe for success. -- DJ Bien-Aime Indianapolis Colts The early surprise: The Colts have one of the NFL's worst defenses. The verdict: Real. Indianapolis was hardly expected to dominate on defense, but its hopes for improvement were largely built on getting dominant play from the secondary. That hasn't transpired, and it's hard to see a path toward significant improvement without it. The Colts rank last in the NFL in yards per play (7.2), yards per game (514.5) and points allowed per game (37.0) as well as 31st in defensive expected points added (minus-28.3). -- Stephen Holder Jacksonville Jaguars The early surprise: Bhayshul Tuten is RB1. The verdict: Real. The Jaguars signed RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. in free agency, and the expectation was that he and Tuten would share the workload. Through the first two games, however, Tuten (28 carries) has more than doubled Rodriguez's workload (12 carries). Tuten is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and also has three catches for 19 yards, and he should be fully entrenched as the lead back. -- Michael DiRocco Tennessee Titans The early surprise: The Titans have been dominated in time of possession. The verdict: Real. The Titans' offense had the ball for only 21:14 against the Jets, followed by 23:35 versus the Eagles. Each game presented a different reason for the discrepancy. Tennessee coach Robert Saleh credited the Jets for running the ball well and staying ahead of the chains. The imbalance against the Eagles was due to Philadelphia converting 11 of 18 third down opportunities. It's the same problem but with different causes. -- Turron Davenport AFC WEST Denver Broncos The early surprise: Denver has committed to the run game to help Bo Nix. The verdict: Real. Proceed at your own risk, but coach Sean Payton keeps saying he wants to find "good balance'' in the offense and do things that "take the quarterback off the high dive.'' And the Broncos did that against the Jaguars on Sunday (after largely treating it like an afterthought in the opener against the Chiefs). They had Nix under center more against Jacksonville and intended to show that element, especially in the close-out drive to end the game. Even with injuries at running back, the team will attempt to keep it that way. -- Jeff Legwold Kansas City Chiefs The early surprise: RB Kenneth Walker III is getting a ton of work. The verdict: Mirage. It's understandable why coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy wanted to put the ball in Walker's hands early and often. Of course, Patrick Mahomes was returning from torn ligaments in his left knee, and undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson started at left tackle with Josh Simmons out because of a lower back injury. Walker, though, shouldn't continue to have 26 to 30 touches every game. The Chiefs also should give more opportunities to rookie Emmett Johnson, who has been productive in his limited carries. -- Nate Taylor Las Vegas Raiders The early surprise: The Raiders have eight sacks, tied for the most in the NFL. The verdict: Real. The Raiders have been ultra-aggressive in two games, and that's thanks to defensive coordinator Rob Leonard. Las Vegas also is fifth in pressures (41) and first in pressure rate (50%). The numbers are even more impressive when factoring in that the Raiders are 23rd in blitz rate (25%). They have the potential to maintain their success because of the talent at hand. From Maxx Crosby to Nakobe Dean, the Raiders have players who can get after the quarterback, allowing Leonard to be creative with his playcalls. -- Ryan McFadden Los Angeles Chargers The early surprise: Omarion Hampton is the Chargers' primary back. The verdict: Real. This is only a notable trend because of how offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel talked about the running backs in the preseason, explicitly telling us that Hampton, Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal would share touches. But it has been clear in two games that this is Hampton's backfield. Vidal hasn't had a carry, and Hampton's 35 attempts are tied for ninth in the NFL. On Sunday, Hampton had a career-high 23 carries for 94 yards and one score. Expect this offense to lean on him this season. -- Kris Rhim NFC EAST Dallas Cowboys The early surprise: George Pickens is averaging 7.6 yards per catch. The verdict: Mirage. The wide receiver entered the season averaging 16 yards per catch. Last season, he averaged 15.4 yards per catch and had 22 catches of at least 20 yards. So far, opposing defenses are keeping the lid on Pickens, but he did have two drops in Week 1. After those drops against the Giants, Dallas coach Brian Schottenheimer stressed everything with Pickens will be "fine." And a two-game sample hasn't changed that belief. -- Todd Archer New York Giants The early surprise: Malik Nabers is averaging 35.0 receiving yards per game. The verdict: Mirage. Proceed with patience. The wideout is coming back from a serious knee injury, and he played most of the second game with a backup quarterback. He even declared himself "rusty" after the opener and talked about knocking the "dust off trying to see what I can do on this new knee" after Week 2. No wonder Nabers has only seven catches on 13 targets through two weeks, including one reception for 1 yard on Monday against the Rams. It's going to take time for the star receiver. -- Jordan Raanan Philadelphia Eagles The early surprise: The defense has generated zero takeaways. The verdict: Mirage. The Eagles ranked sixth in opponent turnovers (47) over the past two seasons under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, and they should see their fortunes turn in the near future. They'll get a boost in the pass-rushing department when their splash offseason acquisition, Jonathan Greenard, returns from his pec injury. "Super, super close," Greenard said last week. Do-it-all defensive back Cooper DeJean has been dealing with calf and abdomen injuries, as well; the healthier he gets, the more dangerous that back end becomes. -- Tim McManus Washington Commanders The early surprise: Same as the Eagles, the defense has generated zero takeaways. The verdict: Real. Washington has emphasized this for three seasons now under coach Dan Quinn, but since the start of 2024, they rank 31st in takeaways. With new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones, the Commanders added more pass rushers and hoped to con quarterbacks with disguises. Eventually, that could pay off, but at least on Sunday, it led to multiple coverage confusions and big plays. They will pressure teams, but until the coverage tightens up, the amount of turnovers they need won't materialize. -- John Keim NFC NORTH Chicago Bears The early surprise: The Bears have a Colston Loveland problem. The verdict: Mirage. Loveland was Chicago's leading receiver as a rookie and had a stellar training camp, but the tight end has been a nonfactor in the first two games of his second campaign. Loveland went without a reception in Week 1 and caught his only pass so far (for 3 yards) in a rain-soaked Week 2. His lack of production could be a byproduct of how defenses are playing him differently or that Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III haven't commanded attention away from Loveland. But this trend shouldn't spark panic. Loveland has been on the field for 87% of offensive plays and run routes on 83% of his snaps. -- Courtney Cronin Detroit Lions The early surprise: Jameson Williams is off to a rocky start. The verdict: Mirage. Coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, there were high expectations for Williams entering 2026 as WR2. However, Williams has just six receptions for 78 yards under first-year offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. Williams has been targeted 13 times and hasn't been able to make much of an impact through the first two weeks. But quarterback Jared Goff maintains faith in Williams, as the wide receiver should certainly get back on track. "I'm not worried about him in the slightest, and I got to be a little bit better for him too," Goff said after Detroit's Week 1 win. -- Eric Woodyard Green Bay Packers The early surprise: The Packers can't run the ball. The verdict: Real. Maybe it won't stay this bad -- 64.5 yards rushing per game (ranked 32nd) and 3.3 yards per rush (29th) -- but how much better can it really get? Considering the state of the offensive line with all its injuries and the uncertainty surrounding RB Josh Jacobs, who remains on the commissioner exempt list, the likelihood of significant improvement seems remote. -- Rob Demovsky Minnesota Vikings The early surprise: Dallas Turner has become a dominating pass rusher. The verdict: Real. Turner leads the NFL in pressures (15) and quarterback hits (11), ranks second in pass rush win rate among edge rushers (35.7%) and is tied for third in sacks (3.0). The Vikings' frenetic defensive scheme has helped him go unblocked on some occasions and get favorable matchups on others, but he has been all over the field. Some of his numbers might diminish as opponents seek solutions via film, but all defenses are elevated by having a pass rusher whose potential impact requires the offense to account for him on every play. -- Kevin Seifert NFC SOUTH Atlanta Falcons The early surprise: Kyle Pitts Sr. has one reception. The verdict: Mirage. The Falcons' quarterback situation has been the worst in the NFL by a large margin. Cooper Rush followed up his league-low 2.6 QBR in Week 1 with a league-low 5.2 QBR on Sunday. Pitts is one of the players who has suffered most. He had 88 receptions last season, second in the league among tight ends. The futility won't last forever. Michael Penix Jr. (knee) is expected to start under center Thursday night at Green Bay. Pitts will be a major beneficiary. -- Marc Raimondi Carolina Panthers The early surprise: The Panthers' passing game has been on fire. The verdict: Real. Carolina averaged 179.3 passing yards per game in 2025. Through two outings this season, quarterback Bryce Young has thrown for 648 yards and six touchdowns with one interception. With offensive coordinator Brad Idzik taking over playcalling duties from coach Dave Canales, Young has put together back-to-back impressive outings while throwing two touchdown passes to three different players. Idzik and Young have pulled this off with a relatively modest rushing attack that is averaging 96.5 yards per game. That element makes this passing stretch seem more fact than fiction. -- Mike Kaye New Orleans Saints The early surprise: The Saints are a second-half team. The verdict: Real. The Saints have outscored their opponents by 22 points in the fourth quarter this season. That's the good part. The bad part: They're having to do it because they haven't scored any points in the first quarter. That's not a 2026 trend, but it's now a four-game streak dating to 2025. The Saints scored only 29 first-quarter points all of last season, Kellen Moore's first as coach. They'll have to figure out how to start faster to avoid needing fourth-quarter comebacks. -- Katherine Terrell Tampa Bay Buccaneers The early surprise: The winless Bucs are in trouble. The verdict: Real. The Bucs are 0-2 for the first time since 2014. Since 2002, just 12% of teams that have started off with that record have reached the postseason. What's more alarming is just how disjointed everything looks. Baker Mayfield has turned the ball over four times and is clearly not on the same page as his receivers. Defensively, Alex Anzalone -- who was supposed to step in and fill the void left by retired linebacker Lavonte David -- has missed a handful of tackles already, and he collided with his own teammates while attempting to tackle Cleveland wideout Denzel Boston. That's not good at all. -- Jenna Laine NFC WEST Arizona Cardinals The early surprise: Marvin Harrison Jr. is averaging 16.5 receiving yards per game. The verdict: Mirage. It hasn't been a good start for Harrison. He has four targets and just one catch for 33 yards, and that came in Week 1. But at some point, the third-year wide receiver will break out. It might not happen every week, but Arizona's offense is built to get him involved, and quarterback Jacoby Brissett believes he can unlock Harrison. When will it come is the question. Defenses understand that WR Michael Wilson is a threat, and teams not named the Seahawks aren't necessarily built to take away an entire arsenal of targets. -- Josh Weinfuss Los Angeles Rams The early surprise: Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are splitting carries. The verdict: Real. The Rams believe they have two strong running backs in Williams and Corum, and Los Angeles entered 2026 intending to get closer to an equal share in carries than the pair saw last season. In 2025, it was a 65-35 split in Williams' favor. While the Rams didn't get into a rhythm running the ball in Week 1, they did so in Week 2's second half against the Giants. Through two contests, Williams has 23 carries for 126 yards and a touchdown, while Corum has 22 carries for 133 yards. -- Sarah Barshop San Francisco 49ers The early surprise: The 49ers have not allowed a sack. The verdict: Real. The Niners haven't gone back-to-back games without giving up a sack since November 2018, and this is the first time since sacks became an official stat in 1982 that they've started the season without allowing one across the first two games. So, this is a meaningful benchmark. It's a mirage in that of course the Niners will give up sacks this season; but it's real in that the Niners have an offensive line that -- save for LG Connor Colby -- has been playing together for multiple seasons and QB Brock Purdy is one of the best in the league at sack avoidance. -- Nick Wagoner Seattle Seahawks The early surprise: Drew Lock ranks fourth in Total QBR at 86.5. The verdict: Real. That comes with the caveat that Lock might return to the bench this week with Sam Darnold on the mend. But as surprising as it is that Seattle's backup quarterback is playing better than a lot of starters, nothing about it has seemed fluky. Save for one toss that was nearly intercepted, Lock has not put the ball in harm's way. He has the fifth-best completion percentage over expectation (8.8) and the fifth-best off-target percentage (8.3). -- Brady Henderson