Monster El Nino warning issued by Met Office as 'biggest event in 100 years' to spark weather chaos

Monster El Nino warning issued by Met Office as 'biggest event in 100 years' to spark weather chaos Met Office expert Adam Scaife says that the impact of El Nino is already being felt worldwide, with sea surface temperatures in the Pacific 3.05C above average this week A Met Office chief has warned the El Niño climate phenomenon is now the strongest on record and 'the biggest weather event in a century'. Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Prediction at the Met Office, told the Mirror that its impact is already being felt worldwide. Scientists monitoring the Pacific Ocean established that daily sea surface temperatures in a key region of the central-eastern Pacific were 3.05C above average this week, exceeding the previous record of 3.02C set during the very strong El Niño of 2015. Some longer-term measures of El Niño have not yet hit record levels. But that is likely to change, as the peak is not expected until later this year. The broken records relate to daily sea surface temperature measurements compared with the long-term historical average. Professor Scaife said: "The first thing to say is that the rate of warming in the Pacific is exceptional, and probably the biggest event in 100 years if not longer. We have not seen them that high. The event is huge, I have been in the field for a long time, and I have not seen it. It is a really big event. "We are already seeing the impact around the world: drought in India. There have been no hurricanes, which is really strange, and there is drought in Panama. "The Amazon is now at risk of severe drought. We are a long way from the central Pacific, but mechanisms show a chain of events that crosses the globe - it is like dropping a boulder in a pond. "What we see in Europe is low pressure peaking in November, just west of the UK. "For a weather expert, this pattern is called the East Atlantic Pattern, and it means deeper pressure associated with more rainfall and more storms for the UK. All the data points to extra pressure and that is what we have been warning about." The impact of El Nino is likely to be seen in the UK in autumn and early winter, covering the months of October, November and early December. "It increases the risk of more named storms," added Prof Scaife. Each El Niño is different so the changes to global weather patterns are not guaranteed. But Professor Scaife added: "Scientists are still assessing whether the impacts will be in proportion to its magnitude. "We are already seeing expected effects worldwide. It is unclear if El Nino is impacted by climate change. Opinions differ on that. Readings show categorically that the earth is getting warmer. "There was a 'monster' El Nino in 1877. It is unclear if this one is going to be bigger or smaller, but it may be comparable," added Prof Scaife. The Mirror previously told how Mexico is now braced for a storm, with winds of up to 180 mph, mudslides and flooding forecast along the coast. The winter of 2015 and 2016, which coincided with a very strong El Niño, brought a succession of major storms. It delivered what experts at the time described as the most extreme flooding on record. El Niño can also be associated with UK cold spells in the late winter. But the link is not a strong one and the past evidence is mixed. The so-called Big Freeze of winter 2009/2010 was, at the time, the coldest in three decades - and this coincided with an El Niño. However, 2006/2007 was also an El Niño winter and that was unseasonably warm. As this unprecedented El Niño approaches its likely peak towards the end of 2026, scientists will continue to monitor its development - and its impact on weather around the world. El Nino creates a heightened risk of drought in the tropics, southern Africa and north-east Australia, while north-western Europe – including the UK – is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions in the coming autumn and early winter, the forecaster said. And the Environment Secretary, Dame Angela Eagle, said people in the UK should prepare for the increased risk of national weather emergencies. She said earlier this year: “We’re about to experience probably the largest El Nino that has ever been seen, and that will lead to drier summers, wetter winters, with more extreme storms in this country. It will do a lot more damage in Asia with flooding, and therefore I think that we need to take it seriously. “If you’ve got a store of a bit of food that can keep you going for a while before the emergency services can get to you, you’re going to be a lot better off than if you haven’t. So some of it is that kind of preparation for just being a bit more resilient.” Professor Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical hazards, University College London, last month said the Met Office and other scientific forecasts “suggest that the world is in for one hell of a ride”. “The astonishing and unprecedented amount of heat building across the Pacific Ocean is all but certain to make this the most powerful El Nino in living memory – possibly even the biggest in several centuries,” he said