Weather forecast can give 3-day heart attack warning as 'most important' risk found

Weather forecast can give 3-day heart attack warning as 'most important' risk found A study discovered the temperature could have a major impact on the number of people who would have a cardiac arrest The weather could help predict an increased chance of a heart attack - up to three days in advance. Researchers have examined the effects of temperature change on people's health and identified what they call "one of the most important" weather-related risk factors. The team carried out a study of more than 114,000 people and found that when the temperatures were lower the number of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests is likely to rise above average. The findings could help with future planning for health services as well as prepare people living with cardiocascular disease and their families for "higher-risk" periods. The researchers from Semmelweis University, the Budapest University of Technology and Economics, and the Hungarian National Ambulance Service. Their study, published in Public Health, compared data on out-of-hospital cardiac arrests that happened between November 2018 and December 2023. They examined daily meteorological indicators, including temperature, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, humidity and air quality. The analysis found that falling temperatures were among the most important weather-related risk factors for cardiac arrest. Every 1°C decrease in average temperature was associated with a 1.4% increase in the daily number of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests. A seasonal comparison also showed that nearly 18% more such events happened in winter than in summer. Researchers said the findings "therefore suggest that it is not only sudden drops in temperature that may pose a risk, but lower temperatures in general". They added that rapid changes may also be particularly important as a daily temperature drop of more than 5°C could serve as a warning signal in an early warning system. One of the study’s key findings was that the effects of weather changes may not be immediate. They said they found the number of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests may rise up to three days later. This could make it possible to develop early warning systems capable of predicting increased demand on healthcare services several days in advance. Dr Endre Zima, Professor at the Heart and Vascular Center of Semmelweis University and lead researcher of the study, said: "In a previous study, we examined how extreme cold and heat affect the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. "This time, we went one step further and investigated whether weather patterns could be used to predict when higher-than-average numbers of cases are likely to occur. If this proves feasible, ambulance services and hospitals could prepare for increased demand several days in advance." The researchers developed a predictive model that used meteorological data to estimate the expected daily number of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests. Dr. Ádám Pál-Jakab, resident physician and PhD student at the Heart and Vascular Center of Semmelweis University and first author of the study said: "By combining meteorological and ambulance service data, the model could predict one to three days in advance when the number of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests is likely to rise above average. It does not estimate an individual’s risk, but rather the number of cases expected nationwide." Ensure our latest health news always appears at the top of your Google Search by making us a Preferred Source. Click here to activate or add us as Preferred Source in your Google search settings The team said the next step could be to develop an early warning system that uses weather forecasts to help ambulance services and hospitals plan capacity and manage expected increases in demand. In the future, such a system could also alert people with cardiovascular disease and their families to higher-risk periods, helping them pay closer attention to warning symptoms and seek medical attention sooner when necessary.