Met Office issues record-breaking polar vortex forecast as UK faces snow

Met Office issues record-breaking polar vortex forecast as UK faces snow Weather forecasters say the UK is facing its earliest ever major sudden stratospheric warming event, which could mean cold conditions and snow are on the horizon Brits could face a cold snap and snowy conditions later this month as the polar vortex is weakening. The polar vortex is a ring of powerful winds that keeps freezing air near the North Pole. Arctic air can sweep down across the UK when it weakens. This occurs following a process known as sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), when temperatures rise between 10km and 50km above the Earth’s surface. When the cold air rushes downwards, it impacts the jet stream and potentially creates a ‘blocking pattern’ which can keep snowy conditions and cold weather locked in place for an extended period. This process led to the infamous ‘Beast from the East’ in 2018, a historic weather system which brought 22 inches of snow to some parts of the country in February and March of that year The latest runs of the ECMWF weather model suggest parts of Scotland, England and Wales could see snow around November 17. Met Office forecaster Marco Petagna said: “At the moment, we’ve got a warming taking place in the stratosphere. The polar vortex in the stratosphere is starting to weaken.” Mr Petagna added that if winds reverse direction, it would become a “major sudden stratospheric warming” event — potentially the earliest ever recorded. The forecaster said: “For the UK, it does increase the chance of cold weather, normally a few weeks down the line, so sort of deeper into November is when we’re more likely to see an influence if it does happen. “It’s important to emphasise that there was a major warming event last November, and on that occasion it didn’t directly lead to much cold weather in the UK. It doesn’t always happen, it just increases the chance of it occurring.” El Nino could cause polar vortex collapse Weather experts have suggested this year’s El Nino, expected to be the strongest ever, could lead to the polar vortex collapsing. The Met Office said previously: “Through the latter part of the winter, following a peak in El Nino, the stratospheric polar vortex can become weaker, leading to an increased chance of sudden stratospheric warming events unfurling, increasing the potential for cold weather.” Jeff Knight, lead climate scientist from the Met Office, told the BBC that the UK is facing “the earliest [major SSW event] on record looking back over the 75 years we've been observing…with most experts agreeing this is a very unusual event." The current earliest major SSW event occurred on November 28 in 1969 and 2025. [Image text:] 60 40 60 40 60 40